SETH EFFRON: Democratic legislators hold key in upcoming veto showdown

Friday, April 19, 2019 -- The effort to sustain Gov. Roy Cooper's veto will be a critical test of his clout and the power that Senate Leader Phil Berger and House Speaker Tim Moore wield in the Republican-dominated General Assembly. The fate of this over-ride effort is particularly critical because it is the first since Republicans lost their veto-proof legislative majority.

Posted 9:00 a.m. Apr 19, 2019 — Updated 2:34 a.m. Nov 3, 2022

EDITOR'S NOTE: This analysis is by Seth Effron, opinion editor for Capitol Broadcasting Company.

Sustaining Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of controversial Senate Bill 359 could end up in the hands of a few African-American Democratic legislators – some of whom are ministers.

That is the picture that emerges from a look at how members of the state House of Representatives and Senate voted on the bill earlier this week. All four Democrats in the House who voted for the bill are black, two are ministers. Three of the five Democrats who didn’t vote are also black. In the Senate, the two Democrats who voted for the bill also are black.

The effort to sustain the Democratic governor’s veto will be a critical test of Cooper’s clout and the power that Senate Leader Phil Berger and House Speaker Tim Moore wield in the Republican-dominated General Assembly. The fate of this over-ride effort is particularly critical because it is the first since Republicans lost their veto-proof legislative majority.

With legislators on their “spring break” until April 25, the pressure leading up to their return to deal with the veto will be intense.

Some important basics:

To override a governor’s veto, both the House and the Senate need to win 60 percent of those present and voting.
Assuming ALL the members of the House and Senate are present, it takes 72 votes in the House and 30 votes in the Senate to override a veto.
Cooper needs to keep the vote under 60 percent I just one house to sustain his veto.
If the House or Senate votes to sustain the veto are exactly the same the roll call on the bill, both chambers would fail to override Cooper by a single vote.

There’s no doubt that Berger and Moore will exert heavy pressure on this handful of Democrats to stick with their earlier votes – or even take a walk to shift the balance in favor of overcoming Cooper’s veto.

They will be playing tough -- horse-trading funding for local pet projects, perhaps promising no GOP opposition in competitive districts and even dangle opportunities for key legislative appointments. They can threaten to put up well-funded opponents and curtail funds going into important local projects. It may not be pretty, it’s politics in the real world.

Cooper and his allies will no doubt seek to separate the vote on the bill from the vote to sustain the veto. They’ll need to argue they are separate issues and failing to stick together to sustain the veto will not just weaken Cooper, but all Democrats in the legislature. Cooper also has plenty to offer, from funding and support of local programs and projects to plum appointments on boards and commissions. Aggrieved Democrats can put up primary opponents (a tool Berger and Moore can also threaten to keep GOP legislators in line).

Here are the legislators in the hot seats:

Four House Democrats voted FOR the bill: James Galliard, Nash County; Charles Graham, Robeson County; Garland Pierce, Scotland County; and Raymond Smith, Sampson County. Pierce and Galliard are ministers.

The House Democrats, with excused absences and not voting: Cecil Brockman, Guilford County; Ken Goodman, Richmond County; Amos Quick, Guilford County; Kandie Smith, Pitt County; and Michael Wray, Halifax County. Brockman, Quick and Smith are African-American. Goodman has just been confirmed, as a Cooper appointee, to serve on the state Industrial Commission.

One Republican, Chuck McGrady of Henderson County, didn’t vote and three Republicans had excused absences: Jerry Carter, Rockingham County; Linda Johnson, Cabarrus County; and Jason Saine, Lincoln County.

In the Senate, two Democrats, Ben Clark of Cumberland County and Don Davis of Pitt County, voted FOR the bill. Both are African-American. There were three Senate Republicans who had excused absences and didn’t vote: Harry Brown, Onslow County; Rick Gunn, Alamance County; and Rick Horner, Johnston County.

It may be spring break for the legislature, but there will be no pause in the high-stakes politics with the key vote to sustain the governor’s veto awaiting their return.