Revised models show COVID-19 deaths, infections slowing in NC

Two separate models revised with new data in recent days project the rise in North Carolina's COVID-19 death toll will begin to slow in the next few weeks.

Posted 10:20 p.m. May 4, 2020 — Updated 10:38 p.m. May 4, 2020

Tyler Dukes

, WRAL investigatie reporter

RALEIGH, N.C. — Two separate models revised with new data in recent days project the rise in North Carolina's COVID-19 death toll will begin to slow in the next few weeks.

More than 400 people in North Carolina have lost their lives to the disease caused by the novel coronavirus since it began spreading in the state in late March. Two new models – one from researchers at the University of Washington and another from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – predict hundreds of additional deaths over the next few weeks.

But the models also show that the number of deaths per day may have reached a peak.

New projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, based on a composite of other modeling from universities and public health experts, estimate deaths from COVID-19 will rise to 762 through late May.

The state-level CDC forecast, a composite of nine other models from universities and public health researchers, predicts 762 deaths in North Carolina through the week ending May 23.

Like most other states, however, the CDC ensemble shows the growth in those deaths day over day slowing in North Carolina. The projection includes quite a bit of uncertainty though, and the CDC notes that it's based on models that largely assume social distancing policies will stay in place through the forecast period.

A newly revised model from the Institute from Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington also assumes North Carolina will keep its social distancing policies in place through Aug. 4, although Gov. Roy Cooper has indicated he's eyeing a phased reopening starting in May.

IHME models for North Carolina as of May 4, 2020.

IHME researchers have significantly revised their estimates since last week, when their model predicted deaths would plateau in the state at 394 in early May.

Through early August, the IHME model now projects 1,169 deaths due to COVID-19 in North Carolina. But the update puts the rate of those deaths day over day at their highest level this week.

After May 8, the model forecasts the number of new deaths will drop through late July, when they more or less plateau.

The changes align the IHME model more closely with CDC's composite, which only runs through late May. Compared to the CDC's estimated 762 cumulative deaths through May 23, the IHME model predicts 858 as of that date.

For the first time, the University of Washington's data now includes projections of both testing capacity and "estimated infections" – a combination of lab-confirmed cases and those where people are untested or asymptomatic.

By the end of May, the IHME model projects there will be 700 new estimated infections a day, a significant drop from the estimated 1,887 new daily infections as of Monday.

The forecast also predicts the state will be able to test about 11,000 patients a day by the end of May. That's more than double the state's average daily testing capacity right now, according to data from the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services.

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