Republicans Hold Cash Edge Heading Into Final Stretch of the Midterms

WASHINGTON — Republicans entered the final month of the campaign with more money in the bank than the Democrats, providing them with vital ammunition as they wage a furious effort to hold on to control of Congress.

The most recent round of campaign finance disclosures, filed Saturday, showed that Republican national party committees, candidates in key House and Senate races and their top unlimited-money outside groups, or super PACs, had $337 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Their Democratic counterparts had $285 million in the bank on the same date.

It was a rare bright spot for Republicans in a fundraising picture otherwise dominated by Democrats on the strength of their breakneck small-donor fundraising by candidates in key congressional races.

By contrast, Republicans owe their cash-on-hand advantage to brisk major-donor fundraising, and a slower pace of spending, by their party committees and super PACs.

The three national Republican Party committees had outraised their Democratic counterparts $531 million to $471 million since the beginning of 2017, according to the disclosures with the Federal Election Commission.

Super PAC fundraising was basically a draw, with the top 10 Democratic super PACs outraising their Republican counterparts $335.3 million to $335.1 million — washing away concern among Democrats that they could be swamped by a late tidal wave of cash from wealthy Republicans.

Overall, Democrats have outraised Republicans $1.29 billion to $1.23 billion, counting their respective top super PACs, national party committees and campaigns in targeted congressional races, according to an analysis of election commission filings covering the beginning of 2017 through the end of last month.

The analysis does not capture all of the money at play in the final weeks, including spending by nonprofit groups that do not disclose their donors, as well as seven- and even eight-figure donations that major donors or their advisers say have been — or are expected to be — given to super PACs after the period reflected in Saturday’s filings.

It also does not necessarily mean that the committees with the largest nest eggs — such as the Republican National Committee, which has $51.3 million in the bank, compared with the Democratic National Committee’s $10.3 million — will necessarily spend their cash in the midterms directly.

But the analysis provides a broad assessment of the relative financial strength of the two parties in what is expected to become the first midterm election to surpass $5 billion in total spending. And it hints at how the two sides might allocate their resources as Democrats try to capitalize on their energized base to claw control of the House away from Republicans and make inroads on the state level and, less likely, in the Senate.

The Republican cash advantage could allow the party to bolster financially strapped campaigns that still have a chance, and fund an emerging strategy of nationalizing the race around President Donald Trump and culturally divisive issues like immigration and the confirmation of Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh. Republicans are issuing ominous warnings about liberal “mobs” deploying dirty tactics to help Democrats smear conservatives and push the country toward socialism.

“We’re seeing parity in the money race, and I expect both sides to be taking a pretty hard look at their races in the next week or two, so that they can cut some, and double or triple up on others,” said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonpartisan think tank that analyzes campaign fundraising and spending.

The bigger strategic issue for candidates, party committees and super PACs, he suggested, will be how they adjust to Trump’s efforts to nationalize the midterm elections in a manner that defies recent political norms.

“President Trump in the last two weeks has managed to dominate free media coverage in a way that is firing up his base, and the value of that cannot be measured in the same way you measure super PAC advertising or party committee spending,” he said.

On the Democratic side, a pair of top super PACs — Priorities USA Action and the League of Conservation Voters’ PAC, known as the LCV Victory Fund — last week launched a joint $300,000 digital get-out-the-vote advertising campaign. The ad, which is intended to mobilize young voters and voters of color in four competitive House districts, seemed to suggest that a vote for Republicans is a vote for white nationalism.

The two super PACs have combined to raise tens of millions of dollars this year, according to election commission filings, with big checks coming from labor unions and wealthy liberals, including a total of $2.5 million from Michael R. Bloomberg, the former New York mayor.

Bloomberg, who is considering a 2020 presidential campaign, is planning to spend $100 million to help Democrats capture control of Congress, a political adviser said, including $20 million he donated this month to Senate Majority PAC, the leading super PAC supporting Democratic Senate candidates.

His political adviser, Howard Wolfson, said: “Big money has traditionally sided with Republicans. But in this cycle you’ve seen some change with at least a couple of Democratic donors who are attempting to level the playing field a little bit, and we would certainly be prominent in that group.”

On the Republican side, the biggest super PAC of the cycle, the Congressional Leadership Fund, began airing radio ads last week deploring “the liberal mob, pushing their extreme views, trying to hijack our democracy and steal seats on the United States Supreme Court” through “despicable lies, disgusting character assassination, a new low, even for them, falsely accusing an innocent person of being a sexual predator.” The ad is airing in 10 competitive House districts; in nine of them, the Democrat had outraised the Republican through the end of last month. The Congressional Leadership Fund had raised $125 million through the end of last month, according to election commission filings, including $50 million from Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson and his wife, Miriam. They ranked as the biggest donors of disclosed money during the midterms, having donated $112 million to Republican super PACs through the end of last month, and the talk in Republican finance circles is that the Adelsons are considering giving more.

Brian Baker, president of a super PAC called Future45 and a political adviser to the Ricketts family, major donors to Republican and conservative causes, said “it’s difficult to compete with the Democrats’ funding, but we are trying to help level the playing field so that their message isn’t the only one voters hear.”

The fundraising reports for Future45 show that it raised less than $105,000 between the beginning of 2017 and the end of last month. But it appears to have received a late influx of cash, since it reported spending more than $4 million this month on a nationwide advertising campaign.

Its ad asserts that “voting for any Democrat” will empower “the far left moving to socialism, undefended open borders, immediate tax increases, 100 percent government-run health care,” as well as “the screaming, the violence, the smears and death threats” of angry mobs.

“Most strategists will say that if you’re the party in power in a midterm, you should localize,” Baker acknowledged. “But this is already a national election, and rather than walking away from that, we are embracing it and trying to expose the extreme elements of the Democratic Party, and what they’d do if they win the majority.”

At least some major Republican donors appear to be on board with the themes Trump and supportive super PACs are using to try to nationalize the race.

“These attacks on free enterprise, and the idea that we want to go to socialism, which has failed throughout history,is scary to me,” said Frank VanderSloot, who owns an Idaho-based health and home products company called Melaleuca. The company has donated $500,000 to Congressional Leadership Fund, while VanderSloot and his family have donated another $285,000 to Republican candidates and committees.

“What’s driving me is to try to protect America as we know it,”said. He said he does not always like Trump’s rhetoric and “his attacking of individuals.” But he said he supports the president’s deregulation and tax-cutting measures, adding that he gave $2 million worth of bonuses to his employees after the tax cuts.

“The overall climate for business I think is greatly improved,” he said. “Our sales are way up. When you have people with more money, they buy your product.”