NC losing lead in solar growth, report shows

North Carolina is losing ground to other states in solar growth and utilities in the state are underperforming projections, according to a new report.

Previously a leader in the southeast, North Carolina's solar generation growth is slowing according to the annual "Solar in the Southeast" report, produced by a nonprofit advocacy group called Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE).

National reports from the Solar Energy Industries Association, an industry trade organization, also show North Carolina losing its lead, ranking second behind California in 2017 and now ranking fourth.

"So, North Carolina is not even top in the southeast anymore and our modeling projects that Georgia will overtake North Carolina in installed solar by around 2025," said Bryan Jacob, Solar Program Director for SACE.

According to data reviewed in a webinar presentation of the report, Duke Energy has underperformed 2018 projections for solar energy in 2022.

"We’ve kind of pulled back a little bit, because we've had projects that were looking to come on one year, but they really were delayed into another year," said Randy Wheeless, spokesperson for Duke Energy. "A lot of that was supply-chain issues.

"COVID didn't help in some of those years, as well."

Overall, the SACE report shows the solar industry is bouncing back from those supply chain setbacks. Currently, the southeast is producing six times more energy from solar than it did six years ago.

"When I look at North Carolina, I think this report spells out that we've had a very smart and steady growth and solar," Wheeless said

While the state is still a top producer, outdated transmission infrastructure has slowed expansion.

"I would say the utilities have under invested in transmission for a couple of decades now," Jacob said.

Discount solar program returns for Triangle residents

Some people, including Matt Abele with the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association, say utilities need to move faster to reach the 2030 target of cutting carbon emissions in the sector by 70%.

"I think it’s a little disingenuous for the utility to say they are embracing solar when you often see them with the Utilities Commission pushing back on utility scale solar development," Abele said.

Instead, critics say they are focused investments with large assets that could be more profitable, such as natural gas and nuclear development.

"You're seeing the utility really lean into that and wanting to fully own all of that infrastructure versus utility scale solar development, which has been shown to be the lowest cost form of energy on the grid, and allowing for more third party ownership of that infrastructure to help continue to lower the costs for ratepayers, when in actuality, the utility is trying to see more shareholder returns for their investors," Abele said.

NC Electric Cooperatives also received a "SunBlocker" designation in the SACE report, as an area of opportunity for solar development. Analysts say this sector could allow for wilder adoption by taking advantage of funding through a $9.7 billion grant program called Empowering Rural America (ERA).