Polls this year could be as wrong as in 2016 election, expert says
Steve Bennett, the director of global government practice at SAS Institute, says the same difficulties that caused polls leading up to the 2016 presidential election are present this year, meaning that results once again be off.
THEY WERE LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT HIM BECAUSE HE DIDN'T STAY WHETHER HE HAD MULTIPLE AFFAIRS. >>> THE 2016 ELECTION WAS A RECENT REMINDER THEY DON'T ALWAYS ACCURATELY PREDICT THE OUTCOME. HERE TO TALK MORE ABOUT THE HIDDEN VARIABLES IS DR. STEVE BENNETT OF GLOBAL GOVERNMENT PRACTICE. >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. >> YOU CLOSELY STUDIED WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THE POLLING IN 2016. WHAT DID YOU FIND? >> WELL, REALLY TWO BIG REASONS WHY THE POLLS WERE SO FAR OFF FROM WHAT HAPPENED. ONE IS THAT THE OBSERVATION OF WHAT THEY CALL A SHY TRUMP VOTER. THEY SAW THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE IN 2016 WERE NOT WILLING TO TELL A POLLING FIRM THAT THEY WERE GOING TO SUPPORT DISNEY DONALD TRUMP AND THAT WAS UP TO 6% DIFFERENCE IN WHAT THE POLLING SAID THAN WHAT WE SAW ON ELECTION DAY. THE OTHER FACTOR WAS THE WAY THAT POLLING FIRMS TAKE INFORMATION AND FIGURE OUT WHO WILL SHOW UP ON ELECTION DAY. THEY LOOK AT PREVIOUS ELECTIONS TO CREATE MODELS TO PREDICT THAT. IF YOU HAVE ONE THAT IS DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ELECTIONS, THEY ARE NOT GOOD PREDICTORS OF WHAT IS COMING. 201 WAS A CHANGE ELECTION AND MADE THE EARLIER MODELS NOT AS PREDICTIVE. >> WE'RE SEEING DIFFERENCES THIS YEAR, TOO, WITH EARLY VOTERS AND RECORD TURNOUTS. YOU SAY THERE ARE MORE HIDDEN VARIABLES THIS YEAR. HOW SO? >> PEOPLE HAVE STARTED TO STUDY, DO WE SEE THAT SAME SHY TRUMP VOTER THIS YEAR? IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE THERE. ABOUT 12% OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS SAID THEY WOULD NOT GIVE THEIR PREFERENCES TO SOMEONE WHO CALLED THEM ON THE PHONE SO THAT MIGHT BE THERE. ON TOP OF THAT, WE HAVE A POLARIZED ELECTORATE, MORE SO THAN IN 2016 AND ONCE IN A CENTURY HEALTH CRISIS THAT AFFECTS HOW WE VOTE AND WHO TURNS OUT, SO MANY MORE DIFFERENCES THAT MAKE THOSE POLLING NUMBERS A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE. >> I HAVE JUST ABOUT TEN SECONDSN'T CAN YOU PREDIB? PREDICT WHO WILL WIN? >> WE TRY TO PREDICT WHO WILL WIN. NA SPILL HAVE TO PLAY THE GAME. I CAN'T PREDICT IT. WE JUST HAVE TO TELL PEOPLE TO GET OUT AND VOTE AND GO PLAY THE GAME. >> THANK YOU.