On right, left, polling data doesn't prop up partisan conclusions
The conclusions drawn from a pair of recent polls on attitudes toward teacher pay increases show the perils of how question order and wording can affect answers and the conclusions pollsters will draw.
Posted — UpdatedIs ideology influencing polling about teacher pay?
Nor did Civitas mention that they also asked respondents if they supported a new teacher pay increase to $35,000, noting this amounted to a 14 percent raise. Supporters of this pay increase outnumbered opponents, 74 percent to 21 percent. This result indicates an overwhelming majority support an unconditional pay raise for teachers.
In their very next question, Civitas introduced information about tenure as they asked people if they supported or opposed it. Although the balance of reactions was even – 45 percent supported and 45 percent opposed – I am opposed to feeding respondents information about a topic while they are being asked how they feel about it. In general, surveys should avoid giving respondents information because it helps them to answer it, even if they are uninformed, uninterested and did not hold any prior opinion to be measured.
As it turns out, the next question inquired about raises coupled with ending tenure, although it wasn’t identical to legislation just approved by the Senate. Civitas asked, "A change in the state law requires local school systems to end tenure and offer the top performing 25 percent of the system’s teachers four-year contracts with a guaranteed pay raise each year of the contract. Do you support or oppose this new system of improving teacher quality and increasing the salaries for the best teachers?"
That wording is not neutral. It encourages affirmative responses. First, it is hard for people who already said they approve of pay raises for all teachers to turn around and oppose pay raises for the "best teachers." Likewise, it is difficult to oppose a system that is said to improve teacher quality, even though that is a claim made by advocates of the policy and not an objective fact. Unsurprisingly, 64 percent supported the plan, while 29 percent were opposed.
So, what should we believe? The simple answer is that North Carolinians support pay raises for teachers, and their support does not depend on ending tenure.
PPP publicity raises similar questions
Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling, a local polling firm that works mainly for Democratic candidates and causes, claims nearly the opposite.
In their May 2014 poll, PPP asked three questions about teachers. The first one asked, "How much do you think the starting salary should be for a public school teacher in North Carolina: $30,000, $35,000, $40,000, $45,000, or more?" Currently, the starting salary is $30,800, and the Senate proposal would increase that to $35,000 within two years.
I would have preferred a version of this question that allowed respondents say any dollar amount, rather than giving them a narrowly, fixed range. Nevertheless, a total of 40 percent of respondents answered $35,000 or less, suggesting a large minority would find the Senate proposal acceptable. On the other hand, a majority – 56 percent – chose $40,000 or more, above what Republicans have proposed. It is also worth pointing out that just 14 percent selected $30,000 as the "right" starting salary, which is basically where its at now.
PPP then asked, "How much of a raise do you think all North Carolina teachers should receive in this year’s budget: a 1 percent raise, 2 percent raise, 3 percent raise, 4 percent raise, 5 percent raise, 6 percent raise, 7 percent raise, more than 7 percent, or no raise at all?" Like before, I dislike the answer options as opposed to an open-ended format, especially in this case, since the total raise offered amounts to about 14 percent, 7 percent which comes in the first year. Yet, 7 percent is the maximum of the range offered, other than to say "more." With so many choices, there was no consensus about the exact size any raise should be. While only 2 percent said there shouldn’t be any raise, 74 percent of respondents selected a 6 percent or less, percentages that are smaller than what the Senate approved.
A final PPP question asked people to choose between pay raises and a tax cut, which presumably is how they concluded pay raises were a priority. Respondents were asked, "With limited money in the budget, do you think it is more important for the General Assembly to raise teacher pay or cut taxes?" Pay raises were preferred by a 54 percent to 36 percent margin, with 10 percent unsure.
Most people probably don’t know the starting salary of teachers, so perhaps we should discount the fact only a slim majority preferred a base salary above the Republican Senate plan. On the other hand, most people were fine with a 6 percent raise or less, well below the actual proposal. And, finally, preferring teacher pay increases over tax cuts is not a direct indication that this issue is a priority to voters, although it might be.
In the end, my concerns with PPP have less to do with the polling than with their interpretation of it. This is different than suggesting they loaded the deck in their favor. In fact, this is largely my complaint with Civitas too. Both groups asked good questions, even if they both failed to directly ask about the Senate plan that just passed. Rather, I’ve concluded that both groups took liberties with the results that seem to correspond with their ideological convictions.
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