North Carolina's US Senate race remains tight, new polls show

New polls 'are good for Budd, but they do not say this race is over,' one political observer says.

Posted 10:45 p.m. Oct 26, 2022 — Updated 4:26 p.m. Nov 3, 2022

Bryan Anderson

, WRAL state government reporter

RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race remains close with less than two weeks of voting left, according to recent public opinion polls.

A poll from Marist College, which is among the nation’s most credible pollsters, of registered North Carolina voters released on Wednesday had Democrat Cheri Beasley and her Republican opponent, U.S. Rep. Ted Budd, tied. Among those who said they are definitely voting in the Nov. 8 election, Budd had a 4-point lead, which fell within the margin of error. The survey was conducted from Oct. 17 to Oct. 20.

A recent poll from the conservative John Locke Foundation had Budd up by nearly 4 points, but within the sampling error among likely North Carolina voters.

East Carolina University, which is among the lowest-rated pollsters in the state, had Budd ahead of Beasley by 6 points, a 3-point improvement for Budd since the university’s September survey. That survey had a credibility interval of 3.8 percentage points. A credibility interval is similar to a margin of error.

“Cheri Beasley is not up in this election,” said Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political scientist. “These are good polls for Budd. There’s no doubt about it. They are good for Budd, but they do not say this race is over.”

That’s despite the fact Beasley doesn’t appear to have gained ground on Budd over the past month — when three polls, including one from WRAL News, had the two candidates within a single percentage point of one another, Cooper said.

Budd, Beasley deadlocked in US Senate race as economic concerns weigh NC voters, WRAL News poll shows

Both candidates are citing the Marist poll as evidence that they are the ones with the momentum in the race.

“Every day that goes by seems to yield another poll with likely voters supporting Ted Budd over Cheri Beasley,” Budd’s campaign said in a news release.

Beasley said on Twitter that she’s encouraged to be tied among registered voters in the Marist poll given she’s facing substantial opposition over the airwaves from conservative groups.

“Even with Republican allies outspending us by millions of dollars, this race is coming down to a dead heat,” she wrote.

Federal campaign finance data shows outside groups have spent $43.9 million against Beasley during the general election, about four times the $11.4 million spent against Budd, according to OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan group that tracks political spending.

Cooper said the Marist survey could overstate Budd’s chances because North Carolinians who told the pollster they are definitely going to vote might ultimately choose not to turn out to the polls.

“I don’t find that to be particularly compelling,” he said of Budd’s 4-point lead among self-identified definite voters. “People always think the best. They think they will show up to vote. That does not mean that they will. It’s like saying at the beginning of the week, ‘I’m going to go to the gym every day’ and then you look at the clock and it’s 4 o’clock and you decide it’s about time to go home instead.”

13th Congressional District

The U.S. Senate race isn’t the only highly competitive race this year. In the 13th Congressional District, the John Locke Foundation showed Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel and Republican political newcomer Bo Hines in a statistical tie, with Nickel ahead by a single percentage point. In August, Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning group, showed both candidates tied.

The Triangle seat up for grabs includes parts of Wake, Wayne and Harnett counties and all of Johnston County. It’s an area that was newly drawn this year as part of the state’s redistricting process. The congressional map will only be used for the 2022 elections.

NC Voter Guide 2022: Who's running, how, where, when to vote in NC election

Early in-person and mail-in voting data thus far appears comparable to 2018, Cooper said. By the end of Tuesday, more than 666,000 North Carolinians cast their ballot. Early in-person voting began on Thursday and ends at 3 p.m. on Nov. 5. Registered voters can cast their ballot at any early voting site within their county, while would-be voters can register and vote on the same day. Those who are unsure of their voter registration status or want to see what their ballot will look like can also find it online through the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

Voters can also cast a ballot on Election Day at their assigned polling place on Nov. 8. Election Day voting begins at 6:30 a.m. and ends at 7:30 p.m. Any voter in line at their assigned polling place at 7:30 p.m. or sooner will be able to vote.

Suggest A Correction