PPP: Amendment likely to pass

Posted May 7, 2012 9:55 a.m. EDT

Public Policy Polling's final poll of the primary says the constitutional amendment on the May 8 ballot, which will put a definition of marriage into the state constitution, is likely to pass. For what it's worth, here's the blurb from this morning's PPP release:

"Our final marriage amendment poll finds it leading by a 55-39 margin, little change from a week ago when it was ahead 55-41. The final yes percentage will likely be somewhere in the 57-59% range depending on how the undecideds break. Opponents of the amendment had an uphill battle in convincing voters that it was anything other than a referendum on gay marriage, even though it does go a lot further than that. 57% of voters in the state think gay marriage should be illegal (to only 34% who think it should be legal) and it's not a coincidence that number correlates so closely with the 55% planning to support the amendment.

"In some sense North Carolinians are voting against their own beliefs. 53% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, yet a majority also support the amendment that would ban both. The reason for that disconnect is even with just 24 hours until election day only 46% of voters realize the proposal bans both gay marriage and civil unions. Those informed voters oppose the amendment by a 61-37 margin but there may not be enough time left to get the rest of the electorate up to speed."

With so much activity around the amendment in the last few days, it will be interesting to see how close PPP is on this.