An influential Republican group says it plans to spend at least $71 million to help Michael Whatley’s U.S. Senate campaign in North Carolina — an enormous pledge that comes less than a week after a poll showed Whatley trailing Democratic challenger Roy Cooper by 14 points.
Their race to replace U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis — a Republican from Huntersville who fell out of favor with President Donald Trump and chose not to seek reelection after 12 years in office — was already expected to break records for political spending in North Carolina.
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Monday’s announcement further solidifies the expectation that the race could turn into a brawl this summer fueled by attack ads, as the candidates, their supporters and other deep-pocketed political action committees seek to sway the outcome of the race.
The Senate Leadership Fund tells WRAL that it plans to spend the money on ads that attack Cooper and boost Whatley. The Washington-based group is run by U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota.
When Tillis first won election to the U.S. Senate in 2014 by unseating Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan (D-North Carolina), their race that year saw about $100 million in total spending by the candidates and various outside groups. At the time, it set a record for the most expensive non-presidential campaign in all of American history.
The SLF money alone would come close to matching that figure this year — if it materializes. The group hasn’t begun buying ads yet; those typically start up in the summer. The $71 million earmarked for the North Carolina race is part of the $342 million that the group plans to spend in races across the country.
The New York Times reported Monday that the $342 million is likely to be split up among eight states with competitive Senate races this year, and that North Carolina ranks second, behind the group’s planned $79 million investment in Ohio.
Federal records show the group’s largest recent donations came in the form of millions of dollars from billionaires Elon Musk, Paul Singer, Stephen Schwarzman, Stephen Wynn and Jude Reyes, as well as from other conservative PACs.
The group told WRAL that between ads, get-out-the-vote efforts and other strategies, it “will efficiently deploy resources and build full scale campaigns to protect and expand the Republican Senate majority.”
Meanwhile the group's Democratic counterpart, the Senate Majority PAC, tells WRAL is also plans to spend millions in 2026 but hasn't yet announced that figure for North Carolina specifically, since it’s still so early in the campaign.
"Republicans know they're staring down defeat this November, so it's no surprise they're showing their hand this early," Senate Majority PAC press secretary Christyna Thompson said, citing Trump’s growing unpopularity, which Democrats hope help their party's candidates nationwide.
Watch: Senate Leadership Fund pledges $71 million for Whatley against Cooper in NC
NC in key role nationally
Democrats need to flip four U.S. Senate seats in races around the country this year to retake control of the chamber. The task will be an uphill battle even if Cooper wins the seat, and virtually impossible if Whatley can keep the seat in Republican hands.
Given the stakes, the state is a top priority for Thune and his fellow GOP leaders. And Whatley is a candidate they already know well from his time leading the national Republican Party in 2024, when the GOP retook control of the White House and Congress.
On Monday the Democratic National Committee listed North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Alaska as its four targets to flip in a fundraising email.
“This operation is going to take a massive amount of resources,” Roger Lau, the party’s executive director, wrote in that email. “Trust me, our team is crunching the numbers every day. But we also know how to win tough races. That’s why at the DNC, we’re making unprecedented investments in voter registration and state parties. And we’re working to reach voters who may have sat out previous elections.”
Multiple recent polls have shown Cooper leading Whatley, whether in a head-to-head matchup or in snapshots of their individual name recognition and popularity. The former governor left office a popular figure and has never lost an election during his 30-year political career — a tough opponent for Whatley, a relatively unknown figure who has never before run for office.
Cooper’s long history in North Carolina politics for decades — serving as a state lawmaker and later attorney general before his two terms as governor from 2017 to 2025 — could also give Republicans a long record to attack.
The Senate Leadership Fund is expected to attack Cooper on crime and disaster relief.
Some Republicans believe Cooper was never truly challenged in his 2016 and 2020 election for governor, when he won despite the state’s voters also backing Trump for president. The SLF announcement notes that the money it plans to spend attacking Cooper this year is more than Republicans spent, combined, during both of his gubernatorial campaigns.
Cooper’s polling lead
A Catawba College poll released Tuesday showed Cooper leading Whatley by 14 points — 48% to 34% — among likely voters, including voters who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate.
An Elon University Poll published Thursday shows Cooper with a broad head start against Whatley among registered voters, in terms of name recognition as well as popularity. Forty-eight percent of respondents view Cooper favorably and 34% view him unfavorably. Twenty-four percent view Whatley favorably, and 34% view him unfavorably. Meanwhile, 27% of voters say they know little to nothing about Cooper, while 64% say the same about Whatley.
Whatley, a longtime lobbyist and political insider, has never before run for elected office. But he was endorsed by President Donald Trump in the GOP primary to succeed Tillis, and he cruised to an easy victory among the party base last month.
Despite the numbers, Whatley is confident in his chances. “I have never run for office, so my name recognition is a little bit lower,” he told WRAL on Thursday. “But whenever we have conversations with people across the state, we are getting our points through.”
Whatley added: “We just need to introduce me and my ideas to the rest of the state.”
Cooper’s campaign, meanwhile, isn’t taking the poll numbers for granted.
“A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades and we know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate," Jeff Allen, Cooper's campaign manager, said in a statement last week.