Election officials certify historic NC upset. What’s next for Berger, Page and taxpayers.

State Sen. Phil Berger, who has wielded the Senate gavel since Republicans took a legislative majority in 2011, conceded defeat Tuesday in his district’s GOP primary to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page. Berger announced the decision after two recounts — one by machine, one by hand — yielded no change in Page’s 23-vote lead. State election officials certified the results Wednesday morning.

Political analysts have described Berger’s loss as a political earthquake. 

As leader of the Senate, Berger has strong influence over which measures advance in the chamber. Over the past 15 years, he has led Republican measures to cut taxes, slash regulations, and rewrite state policies to more align with the GOP’s agenda. In recent months, Berger has feuded with House Speaker Destin Hall, R-Caldwell, over state spending on a range of issues — from state employee salaries and Medicaid to a children’s hospital, and more.

At least one of Berger’s top deputies is jockeying for the Senate leader position. 

Here’s what’s next for Berger, Page, taxpayers and the North Carolina General Assembly.

Q: I’m a North Carolina taxpayer. Could this change affect me?

Berger’s upset could potentially break a legislative stalemate over state spending that has held up raises for thousands of state employees and funding for Medicaid, the government health insurance program for more than 3 million of the state’s 11 million residents.

The legislature controls state spending and is the primary source of funding for K-12 public schools across North Carolina. It also partially funds Medicaid, which could run out of funding this spring due to the state budget impasse and program changes under congressional Republicans’ spending-and-tax cut bill.

The state House and Senate last year failed to agree on a comprehensive spending plan, meaning state employees — from public school teachers to correctional officers — have gone months without significant pay bumps from the state.

One reason for the holdup: legislative leaders have disagreed over the state’s personal income tax rates. The rate dropped from 4.5% in 2024 to 4.25% in 2025. More rate cuts are scheduled if the state meets revenue-collection goals outlined in state law. However, economists in the Office of State Budget and Management warned last year that further tax cuts could leave the state with a deficit.

Hall has expressed a willingness to pause the scheduled tax decreases, while Berger resisted the idea and equated a tax rate pause with a tax increase. Berger’s position could soften now that he doesn’t have to worry about scrutiny from his political right — or he could dig in his heels even more, leaving the state without a comprehensive plan for at least nine more months.

David McLennan, political science professor at Meredith College, thinks Berger will make a deal. “It’d be difficult for him to go through an entire short session, even knowing that he wouldn’t be returning and wanting his legacy to be a budget impasse,” McLennan told WRAL.

Q: What happens next for Berger?

Berger has said he plans to serve out his term, which expires at the end of the year. And he has said the election outcome won’t affect how he legislates.

"I remain committed to working with my colleagues in the short session to ensure North Carolina continues to be the best state in the nation in which to live, work, raise a family, and retire,” he said in a statement on Tuesday. “In the months ahead, I will also do everything I can to support all Republican Senate candidates and protect our supermajority."

North Carolina’s tax rates have been a priority for Berger throughout his career. And last month, Berger proposed a 12-month freeze on county property tax revaluation changes. Property taxes are collected by cities and states, which are in charge of setting the rates. Even if city and county leaders don’t raise tax rates, increasing property values can lead to higher bills for homeowners.

Berger has also advocated for funding for the state’s first standalone children's hospital, funding that has gotten caught up in negotiations over Medicaid and the state budget. North Carolina Children’s Health, a partnership between UNC Health and Duke Health, plans to build on 230 acres in Apex. The project, which would bring thousands of jobs to western Wake County, is relying in part on state funding to open sometime after 2032.

The 2023 budget authorized about $320 million for the project over three fiscal years. About $216 million has already been spent. Berger’s office is seeking the final allocation of $103.5 million. Hall — who became House Speaker last year — has sought to renegotiate the funding.

Q: What happens next for Page?

Page must win the general election in November to take Berger’s seat, which he’s likely to do. He’ll face Democrat Steve Luking in the Republican-leaning district. 

Luking criticized Berger for initially resisting the expansion of Medicaid and for not approving more funding for public education. “I will not be sorry to see him go,” Luking, a family doctor who advocates for affordable health care and increased teacher pay, said in an email late Tuesday. “I look forward to a spirited and issue-focused competition with Sam Page.” 

Crime and immigration have been top priorities of Page, who has served as Rockingham County’s sheriff since 1998. Page testified before a Congressional committee on immigration and border security in 2015. In recent years, Page traveled to Raleigh to advocate for legislation that would require North Carolina sheriffs to cooperate with federal immigration officers.

If Page reaches Raleigh after the November election, he might face hostility from his fellow Senate Republicans. 

Berger has been one of the most well-connected and most effective lawmakers for more than a decade, McLennan said. Berger has also been one of the major drivers of fundraising for Republican candidates up and down ballots —- and it’s possible that Berger’s remaining allies resent Page for defeating Berger and tying up caucus resources. In November, Republican state Senate Majority Whip Amy Galey said in a letter to Page that “there will not be enough money left over to keep the supermajority” if Page ran against Berger. 

“Politics is very personal, so it may be that there’s not overt retribution, but there could be some kind of behind the scenes things that happen,” McLennan said. The next Senate leader could exclude Page from meetings and senate committees, he said.

Page on Tuesday downplayed the possibility that Republican senators might seek retribution against him in the legislature, if he wins the November election.

“I don't think going down to the Senate that I'm going to be ostracized,” Page said. “Change happens.

Page said he hopes Republican senators are willing to consider his perspective as a sheriff: “Maybe people might learn something or I can learn something from them.”

Q: Who could be the next Senate leader?

Republican state senators will soon find themselves in an unfamiliar position. Berger has led the party in the chamber for more than two decades, going back to his term as Senate Minority Leader before the GOP gained the majority. Republicans aren’t expected to vote for a new leader until after the November elections. 

To date, Berger hasn’t thrown his support behind an heir apparent. However, it’s possible — if not likely — that the next president pro tempore will be someone who already holds a Republican leadership position. Sen. Ralph Hise of Mitchell County serves as Berger’s top deputy. Sen. Michael Lee of New Hanover County serves as the majority leader. Sens. Amy Galey of Alamance County and Todd Johnson of Union County serve as the majority whips. Sen. Carl Ford of Rowan County serves as the joint caucus leader. 

Hise told WRAL Tuesday night that he plans to seek the top job. 

“My focus is on continuing this session under Phil’s leadership and honoring his service to North Carolina,” Hise said, adding that he doesn’t foresee the caucus voting on the matter until “after we have concluded our work for this session.

Berger’s other top deputies —- Lee, Galey, Johnson, and Ford — didn’t respond to requests for comment Tuesday night. On social media Wednesday, Lee said conversations have begun about who might succeed Berger. 

"I respect those who are engaging in those discussions, and I am prepared to step forward to provide the leadership needed to meet the challenges ahead and to guide the Senate into its next chapter," Lee said. "There will be an appropriate time for those discussions. For now, we pause to thank a leader who has given so much to this state and to the Senate."

WRAL reporter Carolina Yaffa contributed to this report.