Cooper more popular than Whatley as NC voters retreat from GOP, new poll shows

Support for congressional and legislative Republicans is softening among North Carolina voters ahead of this year’s midterm elections, according to a new poll.

The findings from the Elon University Poll, published Thursday, show that 35% of North Carolinians want Republicans to keep control of Congress, down from 40% six months ago. The state’s open U.S. Senate race, to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, will feature Democrat Roy Cooper, Republican Michael Whatley and Libertarian Shannon Bray.

The poll shows Cooper with a broad head start against Whatley among registered voters, in terms of name recognition as well as popularity:

• 48% of respondents view Cooper favorably and 34% view him unfavorably.
• 24% view Whatley favorably, and 34% view him unfavorably.
• Meanwhile, 27% of voters say they know little to nothing about Cooper, while 64% say the same about Whatley.

Cooper’s head start is not a major surprise. He has been a fixture of North Carolina politics for decades, serving as a state senator and later attorney general before his two terms as governor from 2017 to 2025.

Whatley, a longtime lobbyist and political insider, has never before run for elected office. But he was endorsed by President Donald Trump in the GOP primary to succeed Tillis, and he cruised to an easy victory among the party base last month.

Republicans are expected to spend big in North Carolina this year to hammer Cooper’s image and elevate Whatley’s profile. Democrats, meanwhile, see the state as one of several opportunities to flip from red to blue this November. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats need to flip four seats to retake the chamber. They’re eyeing North Carolina in addition to Maine, Alaska, Texas and possibly others.

Views on local politics

It’s not just the U.S. Senate race where Democrats have an edge in the new Elon Poll findings.

It found that many people don’t pay much attention to what’s happening in state government. But among those who do, they like what Democratic Gov. Josh Stein has done in his first year-plus in office, and they dislike what the Republican-led state legislature has been doing.

• The poll found 43% approval and 27% disapproval for Stein, for a net-positive rating.
• The poll found 21% approval and 37% disapproval for the legislature, for a net-negative rating. That’s compared to 24% approval and 35% approval six months ago.

The findings are notable. Stein isn’t up for reelection this year, but all 170 seats in the state legislature are. Democrats have already broken Republicans’ veto-proof majority in the state House of Representatives and will be looking to flip more seats. And in the state Senate, Democrats need to flip just one seat to break the GOP supermajority and give Stein’s vetoes more teeth.

The dissatisfaction with the GOP-led legislature was driven, in large part, by Republican voters. Only 30% of Republicans have a favorable view of the legislature, the poll found. By comparison, 19% of Democrats approved of the legislature.

North Carolina remains the only state in the nation without a new budget in place, since the start of the new fiscal year last summer.

That has caused hundreds of thousands of state employees to go without promised raises. It’s also threatening the future of Medicaid for 3 million North Carolinians who rely on the government-backed health insurance, which is disproportionately relied upon by people in rural areas.

Economic frustration

The Elon poll also found that only 2% of respondents would rate the state’s economy as an ‘A’ grade.

Most said they’d rate it as a ‘B’ or a ‘C’ grade, although nearly one in three respondents said they’d rate the economy as a ‘D’ or ‘F’ grade.

North Carolina has routinely been rated the best state in the country for business in recent years, by publications including CNBC. But at the same time it has also repeatedly ranked among the worst states for workers, in ratings published by groups such as Oxfam.

Federal income data shows that the typical household in North Carolina has become steadily more poor, when accounting for inflation, since 2019.

Data centers, elections, health care, guns

The poll also gauged voters’ opinions on a wide range of policy topics.

Data centers: On data centers, it found Democrats and independents are generally aligned in opposing them, while Republicans are more open to approving their construction. The topic has been a topic of debate all across North Carolina recently, in rural and suburban areas ranging from Tarboro to Rockingham and Apex.

Some cities and counties have welcomed new data centers and their promise of a massive boost to the local property tax base, while others have shot down the proposals after residents raised concerns about pollution and a strain on the local water supply and energy grid.

• The poll found that in general, 24% would support a data center being built in their community and 44% would oppose it.
• Republicans were twice as likely to be in favor than anyone else: 17% of Democrats and independents said they’d support a data center, as did 34% of Republicans.

Concealed firearms: The poll also found broad opposition to one of the legislature’s top priorities from 2025, to allow almost any adult to carry a concealed firearm without needing to get a concealed carry permit first. After Republicans voted to get rid of the concealed carry rules last year, Stein vetoed the measure. The Senate overrode his veto but the House hasn’t yet attempted to take the final step to pass it into law, as it faces opposition from a handful of suburban Republicans.

• The poll found 30% of North Carolinians would support getting rid of concealed carry rules, while 56% oppose the idea and the final 14% are unsure.
• A plurality — but not a majority — of Republicans, 47%, support a concealed carry repeal.
• The idea also garnered support from 17% of Democrats and 28% of independents.

Health care, elections: The poll also asked about federal cuts to health care, and about who should be in control of elections — a timely question as Trump signed an executive order Tuesday attempting to tell states who would or wouldn’t be allowed to vote by mail. Trump has also pushed congressional Republicans to federalize elections more generally, by passing legislation called the SAVE Act, although it appears unlikely to pass in part because of opposition from Tillis.

• Only 12% in the poll thought elections should be nationalized, the poll found, while 63% said elections should remain run by the states.
• Support for keeping elections under local control included 79% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans and 53% of independents.
• On health care, the poll found, a majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents all said they were somewhat or very concerned about federal cuts impacting their care.