New model could improve hurricane forecasting

Posted October 31, 2012 4:54 p.m. EDT
Updated November 1, 2012 1:28 p.m. EDT

— Researchers at North Carolina State University said they have developed a more accurate way to predict seasonal hurricane activity.

Right now, forecasters use historical data to predict how many hurricanes may form in a year. But N.C. State professors Nagiza Samatova and Fredrick Semazzi said their new model uses more variables and is 15 percent more accurate than current techniques.

The new model, which is described in a paper published last month in an academic journal, could help emergency managers make better decisions each year, the professors said.

“This approach should give policymakers more reliable information than current state-of-the-art techniques,” Samatova said. “This will hopefully give them more confidence in planning for the hurricane season.”

Researchers from several universities worked on the project, which was funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy.