NCSU researchers predict active hurricane season

A team led by Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and statistics professor Montserrat Fuentes forecasts 13 to 17 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. That is higher than the average of 10.8 named storms, dating to 1950.

Of the named storms in 2013, seven to 10 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes, and three to six may become Category 3 or stronger hurricanes, the researchers said.

In the Gulf alone, they predict three to five named storms forming, of which one to two will become hurricanes.

Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as variables including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form and where they might make landfall.