NC impact of Dorian a wait-and-see game

On Friday afternoon, the storm was upgraded to a Category 3, with maximum wind gusts between 111 and 129 mph. It was moving west-northwest at just 10 mph. A slower storm means very heavy rain is likely.

WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said, “I have a feeling that they’re going to have some really, really major impacts in Florida because it’s such a slow-moving system."

NC officials taking steps to ensure measures in place should Dorian hit

Landfall is still days away, and any impact to North Carolina won't be clear until after that time.

"We have high confidence that the storm will continue to intensify. It is in a very favorable environment for development," WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell said.

An estimated 10 million people live in the 13 Florida counties with the highest likelihood of seeing hurricane-force winds from Dorian by Wednesday morning. After passing through Florida, it is expected to rake the Southeast coast through the Carolinas.

A high pressure ridge is pushing the storm northwest toward Florida, but by Monday that ridge moves into the Atlantic Ocean, which means, WRAL meteorologist Mike Maze said, the forward motion of the storm could slow further or even stall.

After it comes ashore, the National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Dorian making a turn to the north. The degree of that turn is pivotal to how much of a threat the storm remains for the Carolinas.

"The latest forecast track shows that curve to the north, which enhances our chances for local impacts," Campbell said.

Still, that forecast track only predicts the storm's path through Wednesday morning at 8 a.m., and it has it downgraded to a Category 1 storm by that time.

"The big question with this curve to the north is how sharp of a turn does it make? Will it stay over land or will it move over water? That will make a big impact on how strong this storm can stay," Campbell said.

Tropical model plots predict the storm's path through Monday, Sept. 9, but a forecast that far out is much less reliable. The models differ on the track Hurricane Dorian takes out of Florida. It could continue west into the Gulf of Mexico, hug the southeast coast and stay offshore past North Carolina or take a middle route north over land through Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas.

"We're watching a front on Wednesday that could grab it and push it away. So there's the possibility that North Carolina could see no impact at all," WRAL meteorologist Mike Maze said.

Live webcams show Hurricane Dorian moving up North Carolina

"The weakness of the ridge draws Dorian to the north, so it's possible by the time Dorian gets close to North Carolina, another front comes along and pushes it out to sea," Maze said.

To protect those who might evacuate from Florida to North Carolina and Tar Heel State residents who want to stock up on supplies or fill their gas tanks ahead of any possible storm impact, Attorney General Josh Stein notified businesses and people Friday that the state's price gouging law is in effect.