NC abortion fight likely to begin behind closed doors

What’s still unknown, observers say, is whether House and Senate Republicans can find unified support for a given proposal, and how its passage might or might not affect the 2024 elections.

On the session’s opening day, House Speaker Tim Moore said House and Senate Republicans are already meeting in working groups to come up with a proposal that can be voted on in the coming weeks.

“Senator Berger, I think, has laid out the notion they are looking at, perhaps something at a 13-week [ban], and then beyond that, in the case of rape, incest, the life of the mother, and if the child would not live,” Moore told reporters. “I'm hearing a lot of support for that position in the House as well. But again, these are in the early stages.”

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A thirteen-week ban would make North Carolina the 18th most restrictive state in the country on abortion.

“Whatever the issue is, you can go too far, one way or another. And I think what you will continue to see from this House is to try to take a reasonable, common-sense position, which is why we've been able to get a lot of bipartisan support on bills,” Moore said.

Moore also said he expects some Democrats will support a 13-week ban. “I will tell you that I've had a couple of Democrats that, when I mentioned that idea to them, they go, ‘I can do that.’”

Asked who those Democrats are, Moore declined to say, adding only, “It'll be members who would surprise you, because the assumption is always it’s gonna be these few or that few. I mean, some from all over the spectrum from all over, all areas of the state.”

In recent years, a few Democrats have occasionally voted for abortion restrictions, but they’ve also upheld Governor Roy Cooper’s vetoes of the bills. But in this year’s session, with a margin of just one Democrat to uphold a veto, one defection or even absence could be the deciding factor in whether new restrictions become law.

Asked for a response to Moore’s claim, House Democratic leader Robert Reives, D-Chatham, told WRAL News, “No comment at this time.”

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Before new abortion restrictions can go to the floor for a vote, they’ll have to get the support of the House and Senate Republican caucuses. That may not be easy.

Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer says some far-right Republicans will likely want a 6-week “heartbeat” ban or even a total ban at conception. More moderate members may prefer a 13-week ban, especially if it’s bundled with other changes like more support for adoption and better health care for pregnant women and newborns, as Moore has suggested.

“This could be a real test of party unity,” Bitzer said. “That's going to be the biggest hurdle within the Republican conference to figure that out, let alone trying to figure out, okay, where can we target on Democrats to try and get something as well”

To become law over a likely veto from Governor Roy Cooper, any abortion restriction bill will probably need some Democratic votes. Davidson College political scientist professor Susan Roberts thinks that’s a possibility, given that it’s not an election year, and depending on the bill Republicans advance.

“The Republicans might be able to peel off at least one vote if not more,” Roberts said. “I think there are two scenarios: the 13-week [ban] and then the six-week ‘heartbeat’ legislation, which I think is a little more draconian. I think that one may really have an impact. If North Carolina goes with the six-week ban. I think there'll be a lot of hue and cry.”

As for potential election impacts in 2024, both Bitzer and Roberts agree it’s too early to say.

“If you include those exceptions, the general public might not really pay much attention to 20 weeks versus 13 weeks. I think everybody would pay attention to six weeks,” Roberts said.

A 13-week ban wouldn’t satisfy activists on either side of the debate.

Tami Fitzgerald with the anti-abortion NC Values Coalition says statistics show some 87% pf abortion in North Carolina already happen before 13 weeks. She wants to see a six-week ban enacted, and says her group will pressure Republican lawmakers to enact one.

“There's a huge opportunity for legislators to show how pro-life they are. And if you're pro-life, you really want to save the most number of unborn humans that is possible,” Fitzgerald said. “13 weeks is not going to save many, but a heartbeat limitation or protection would save most of them.”

“As the discussions are being held, we believe that legislators are going to understand that,” she added. “Honestly, we haven't talked to one legislator that doesn't support it.”

Meantime, Jillian Riley with pro-choice group Planned Parenthood South Atlantic says her group will fight any new ban. She says decisions about abortion belong with women and their doctors, not politicians.

“No amount of exceptions will make this okay. This is a fundamental human right that we're talking about. We're talking about private health care decisions,” Riley said.

“We know that they will not stop here,” Riley added. “The goal of the anti-abortion movement is to ban abortion completely, with little or no exceptions. And so the strategy of the anti-abortion politicians is clear: Move the deadline earlier and earlier into pregnancy.”