@NCCapitol

Money, growth could shape partisan battle over Triangle-area congressional district

Primary wins by Republican Bo Hines and Democrat Wiley Nickel have set the stage for a bare-knuckle political brawl this fall in the state's most competitive congressional district.

Posted Updated

By
Laura Leslie
, WRAL capitol bureau chief

Primary wins by Republican political newcomer Bo Hines and Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel have set the stage for a bare-knuckle political brawl this fall in the state’s most competitive Congressional district.

The new 13th Congressional District, centered on Johnston County, includes southern Wake County, western Wayne and eastern Harnett counties. Based on how voters performed in 2016 and 2020, the district is projected to vote 49.73% Democrat and 49.07% Republican, making it potentially one of the most competitive Congressional districts in the country, let alone the state.

Much of the area covered by the district has been deep-red Republican for years, but recent rapid growth in Wake, Johnston and Harnett counties may mean a shift in demographics.

Meredith College political science professor David McLennan says the district could be a case study on the impact of in-migration on traditional North Carolina politics.

“We're seeing more and more people move further out from the urban centers, and that's where they're moving—places like District 13,” McLennan said. “The type of people who are living in formerly rural areas are college-educated, by and large, and more affluent than the district previously was.”

Different ideologies

In many cases, primary voters in a toss-up district tend to choose more moderate nominees who stand a better chance of winning cross-party support in the general election. That’s what happened in the 1st Congressional District, where Democratic voters chose state Sen. Don Davis over former state Sen. Erica Smith.

But in the 13th district, neither party’s voters went in that direction. So the fall election is shaping up to be a head-on battle between full-throated representatives of starkly different ideologies.

On the Democratic side, Nickel beat former state Sen. Sam

Searcy and three other hopefuls. Nickel has one of the most progressive voting records in the state Senate, often positioning himself to the left of his caucus.

State Sen. Wiley Nickel, D-District 16 (Wake)

Despite that, Nickel believes his message will appeal to a broad cross section of voters in the new district, which he believes is trending more Democratic with every moving van that shows up. But he thinks his message will appeal to Republicans as well.

“There are so many Republicans who are tired of having folks who are trying to go to Washington to do nothing other than to placate Donald Trump,” Nickel said. “You know, I'm going there to be a voice for everybody in North Carolina.”

Nickel, a state senator, thinks his opponent’s “extreme” positions won’t play well in a toss-up district.

“You have someone who's a public servant, who has worked for the state of North Carolina, versus someone who, frankly, is just another Madison Cawthorn wannabe,” Nickel said, referring to the western North Carolina hardline conservative congressman who lost in a primary Tuesday.

“We just got rid of Madison Cawthorn,” he said. “We don't need another one.”

Bolstered by Trump and money

Hines came out on top of a scrum of eight candidates including Devan Barbour, Kelly Daughtry and Kent Keirsey.
A new face in the district, he had two big advantages: the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, and nearly $2 million in outside spending on his behalf by Club for Growth Action, a Washington, D.C.-based free-market PAC that often bankrolls Trump’s picks.

Hines credits the financial support to his message, which he says resonates with all voters, not just Republicans.

“Voters will continue to reject Obama, Biden and Obama-Biden-era policies that have been put forward by Democrats that have led to rampant, rampant stagflation,” Hines told WRAL News. “They've impacted the wallets of everyday Americans.”

Hines took exception to Nickel’s comparison of him to Cawthorn, although the two Republicans have appeared together on social media and at rallies.

“Madison and I are completely different people,” he said. “I mean, the similarities that we have are that we're both Republicans, we believe in a lot of the same conservative values.”

McLennan says Triangle voters can expect millions of dollars in ads from outside spending groups and some big-name surrogates on the ground over the next few months, perhaps even former presidents Barack Obama and Trump.

“This is a new seat; both parties would love to pick this up,” McLennan said. “I expect there to be a significant investment of outside money in this district, just because both sides think they can win.”

While Democrats don’t have a political action committee as well funded as Club for Growth, outside groups like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Action Blue could come to Nickel’s assistance this fall, McLennan said.

“They didn't need to spend a lot of money in [Nickel’s] primary,” he said. “But I think it's going to be clear that they're going to need to spend money in the general [election], just because they know that Bo Hines will be first, a formidable candidate, and second, a well funded candidate.”

 Credits 

Copyright 2024 by Capitol Broadcasting Company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.