Mark Robinson, expected to run for governor, sets date for campaign announcement

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has scheduled a rally where he is expected to announce his 2024 campaign plans.

Robinson, a Republican, didn’t provide specifics on those plans. But he has long said he’s interested in running for governor, calling his intentions to run one of the state’s worst-kept political secrets.

“It’s going to be an event you don’t want to miss,” Robinson said in a statement Thursday.

Robinson’s entry into the race would set up a possible battle against Democratic hopeful Attorney General Josh Stein, who announced plans to run last month and is considered a favorite to win his party’s nomination. The two have been amassing war chests suggestive of such a contest. Current Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper can’t run again due to term limits.

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Robinson’s location choice is likely strategic, said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.

It’s close to where Robinson grew up. And “no other location would provide as clear a visual signal of the differences between a Cooper, and presumably Stein, administration and Robinson’s approach to governing,” the professor wrote in an email.

Robinson, who previously said he was “95% sure” he would run, further telegraphed his intentions this month during a speech at the influential Conservative Political Action Conference.

“I don't need a legacy of a political career," Robinson said during his speech at CPAC. "I need to leave a legacy of freedom for the people that I serve. And that's exactly what I intend to do.”

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Robinson, who in 2020 was elected the state's first Black lieutenant governor, has risen in popularity with the GOP base and would likely be considered the frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination. Republican State Treasurer Dale Folwell has also said he’s considering a run.

A campaign built on pandemic-era grievances would also be risky. Former Lt. Gov. Dan Forest in 2020 led his gubernatorial campaign with the idea of reopening North Carolina’s businesses – and lost by more than four percentage points.

“But Mark Robinson is not Dan Forest,” said Cooper, the professor, referring to the former Republican lieutenant governor who lost to Gov. Cooper in 2020. “I don’t know if it will work, but he’s certainly going to try to use that [the speedway shutdown] as an example of what he will call gubernatorial overreach.”

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Polling suggests possible GOP primary challengers could face an uphill battle against Robinson, whose bombastic style and controversial rhetoric have endeared him to hardline conservatives, including former President Donald Trump, while also generating blowback from some in his own party.

A survey late last year of likely Republican primary voters looked at hypothetical match-ups between Robinson and other potential GOP candidates for 2024. Almost 60% of likely GOP primary voters would opt for Robinson, while about 6% said they’d vote for Folwell, according to the poll released by GOP political consulting group The Differentiators. Thirty-four percent were undecided.

At the same time, Robinson could still have to do a lot of work to develop name recognition. Despite being the state’s top Republican executive office-holder, more than half of respondents to a recent poll said they were unsure about or unfamiliar with Stein or Robinson.

At 22%, Robinson’s favorability rating was 3 percentage points higher than Stein’s, according to the High Point University Survey Research Center, which polled 1,010 people online between Feb. 27 and March 4. The poll had a credibility interval of 3.4%.