Likely Republican primary voters show strong support of Mark Robinson in his potential run for governor, GOP poll finds

New polling indicates that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has strong favorability among Republican voters and that he could have a sizable following if he decided to run for governor in 2024.

Republican political consulting firm the Differentiators polled 500 likely Republican primary voters about their opinions on potential GOP candidates in 2024.

The poll found 54.8% of respondents had a favorable opinion of Robinson. Only 8.4% view him unfavorably. The poll found 15.6% had no opinion one way or the other, and 21.2% had never heard of him.

Robinson is a relative political newcomer who surprised many in the Republican party by winning the 2020 nomination and later the election for lieutenant governor. He hasn’t officially announced a campaign for governor in 2024, but he has said he’s “95% sure he’ll run,” and many observers expect him to run.

"I am honored by the support and look forward to the people of North Carolina continuing to get to know me, my background, and my vision for the state," Robinson said in a statement.

Jim Blaine, one of founders of the firm that conducted the poll, said Robinson’s approval numbers are “shockingly high.”

If voters were choosing today, 59.7% of likely GOP primary voters would opt for Robinson. Just 6.3% said Folwell and 34% were undecided.

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In a matchup against former Gov. Pat McCrory, Robinson did even better: 60.4% said they would choose Robinson and 20.6% would vote for McCrory. About 19% of respondents said they were undecided.

Blain said the battle for the nomination would be a short one should Robinson decide to run.

“He's spent the last two years winning the Republican primary,” Blaine said of Robinson. “It's over. So, I think the big question here is, ‘OK, can he pivot?’

“Having won that primary, can he pivot and start doing more of a general election raise and speak to voters in the middle?”

On the national level, North Carolina Republicans polled by the Differentiators indicated they’d like someone other than former President Donald Trump to run for the GOP presidential nomination.

Asked whether they’d prefer Trump as their party’s presidential nominee or someone else, 52.4% said they’d prefer someone else. Only 36.1% said they’d like to see Trump run again. And 11.4% were undecided.

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“They've decided that the baggage that he brings, if you're not winning — and he's always talked about winning — if you're not winning, then they don't have any use for it,” Blaine said.

Trump’s main possible rival appears to be Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is flirting with a bid. If the 2024 presidential primary were held today, 56.3% of respondents said they’d vote for DeSantis. About one in three — 34.5% — said they’d vote for Trump. Another 9.2% were undecided.

“It's amazing how quickly the tide has turned on that,” Blaine said. “But it really looks to me like they're looking for an alternative, and they've kind of settled on Ron DeSantis.”