La Niña pattern could mean good news for snow lovers in WRAL's winter outlook

The winter months are almost here, so it's time for the WRAL Severe Weather Center's winter outlook.

Posted 11:00 p.m. Nov 22, 2021 — Updated 1:43 p.m. Nov 23, 2021

WRAL Severe Weather Center

The winter months are almost here, so it's time for the WRAL Severe Weather Center's winter outlook.

Like last year, we are expected to be in a La Niña pattern during the winter months. Typically, La Niña events occur every 3 to 5 years, but they can occur in consecutive years, according to the National Weather Service.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains La Niña as a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.

Above-normal temps, but snow still possible

Globally, temperatures tend to be below-normal during a La Niña pattern.

However, in the most recent nine La Niña years (out of the last 51), all but one saw above-normal temperatures in North Carolina during the winter months.

The average snow over the past 20 and 10 years at Raleigh-Durham International Airport

WRAL meteorologists are sticking with the odds and forecasting above-normal temperatures with a few cold snaps.

Predicting snow is one of the trickiest parts of the winter weather forecast, but there is good news for snow lovers. Weather conditions like temperatures, cloud coverage, precipitation type and timing are some of the criteria used to determine the accuracy of the forecast.

New 'normal' climate data shows nearly an inch less snow, more rain, warmer temperatures in the Triangle

Data shows that in each La Niña year, there was at least one measurable snow event and at least three days with a trace of snow in addition to that.

For this year, WRAL meteorologists are predicting 2 to 5 inches of snow.

The outlier La Niña year

Last year turned out to be a fairly cold winter, with temperatures overall below-normal for December, January and February. Only 34 out of 90 days saw temperatures above normal.

The warmest high was 77 degrees on Feb. 28, and the coldest low was 20 degrees on Dec. 26 and Jan. 30. The all-time warmest winter high at RDU on record was 84 degrees on Feb. 26, 1977. The coldest was -9 degrees on Jan. 21, 1985.

Average high temperatures in Raleigh over the past years

Last year, WRAL meteorologists predicted 3 to 5 inches of snow, which would be short of the climatological normal of 6.8 inches. But, the prediction was a bit too optimistic, and central North Carolina only received a measly 1.2 inches of snow.

While it was a scanty snow year in central North Carolina, other parts of the United States saw record-breaking amounts of snow. In February, a massive winter system dumped snow across the northeast U.S.