Is This the Year Women Break the Rules and Win?
“Women like me aren’t supposed to run for office,” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declared in the opening of her campaign video that went viral this spring. And women like her weren’t supposed to win primary challenges against incumbents, particularly powerful ones like Rep. Joseph Crowley, D-N.Y., who had been mentioned as a potential House speaker.
Posted — Updated“Women like me aren’t supposed to run for office,” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declared in the opening of her campaign video that went viral this spring. And women like her weren’t supposed to win primary challenges against incumbents, particularly powerful ones like Rep. Joseph Crowley, D-N.Y., who had been mentioned as a potential House speaker.
But she did. So is this the year that women break the rules — and win?
This year’s midterm elections have produced a surge of women like her across the country: progressive candidates running outsider campaigns powered by strong personal narratives and women’s activism that began with massive marches the day after President Donald Trump’s inauguration and has grown through protests against gun violence, the stripping away of the Affordable Care Act and immigration policies that divide families.
Ocasio-Cortez’s win in New York’s 14th Congressional District on Tuesday may be more one-off than wave. The same night she won by 15 points, another woman of color, Saira Rao, lost her energetic bid from the left in a primary against Rep. Diane DeGette in Colorado. Three weeks earlier, so did another, Tanzie Youngblood, in an open primary against a conservative Democrat in New Jersey.
Whether other women become overnight stars like Ocasio-Cortez — or Stacey Abrams, whose win in the Democratic primary for governor in Georgia sparked similar excitement — depends on the dynamics of each state or district.
“Yes, we are in this year where the rules seem to have gone out the door, but I’m still quite cautious,” said Wendy Smooth, a professor of gender and political science at Ohio State University. “We can say that there are some unique stories that could resonate but whether or not they win, it’s ‘politics is local.'”
The conditions in New York were near perfect. The district had been redrawn so that its voters look more like Ocasio-Cortez, whose mother is Puerto Rican, than Crowley, who is white. The state divided its primary — moving the more high-profile contest for governor to September — allowing a strong turnout by activist groups to make a huge difference. Crowley, a 10-term congressman, didn’t take the race seriously, sending a surrogate to stand in his place at a debate. And Ocasio-Cortez made a compelling pitch.
The bigger questions are about Democratic women running in places that are historically Republican — and that’s most Democratic women running this year.
Elsewhere the path to victory is steeper, because the races are against incumbents, who historically almost always win.
Still, Grechen Shirley notes that Democrats have a slight edge in voter registration, and possibly in energy.
“I had a press conference outside of King’s office and a man came up to me and said, ‘My wife voted for you. I am a Republican, so I couldn’t vote in the primary but I am going to vote for you in November and I’d like to give you a donation.'”
“I think there is something new about women challengers that is different this year,” Katz said. “There is a hunger for a different type of perspective. The cycle started being about women’s health, then it was gun safety, then keeping families together. All along it’s been moms and women driving it.”
Debbie Walsh, the director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers, has been tempering hopes for a “pink wave” this year because so many women are running uphill. But she also points out that in last year’s elections for the Virginia House of Delegates, 30 women ran as challengers, and 30 percent of them won. Just 7 percent of the 24 male challengers did.
“There’s something percolating,” she said.
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