Iowa Poll: Iowa voters divided over impeachment
Posted January 11, 2020 8:00 p.m. EST
CNN — Iowa registered voters are divided over whether the House of Representatives made the right move in impeaching President Donald Trump and a plurality say he should not be removed from office, according to a new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll.
Overall, 45% say they disapprove of the House's move to impeach Trump, 43% approve. There are sharp partisan divides on that question, with about nine in 10 Democrats saying they approve (87%) as a similar share of Republicans disapprove (90%). Among independents, more disapprove of the impeachment (48%) than approve (39%).
In three weeks, Iowa voters will become the first in the nation to cast their vote and kick off the presidential primary season.
The poll, released on Saturday, also finds that more than seven in 10 Iowa voters say it is not OK for a US presidential candidate to try to gain political advantage over an election rival by seeking help from foreign countries. That view holds among a majority across party lines: 92% of Democrats say it's not OK, as do 73% of independents and 59% of Republicans.
The articles of impeachment passed by the House in December charge the President with abuse of power -- saying Trump pressured Ukraine to investigate his political rivals ahead of the 2020 election while withholding a White House meeting and $400 million in US security aid from Kiev -- and obstruction of Congress for stymieing congressional efforts to investigate his behavior. Trump has denied any wrongdoing.
Looking ahead to a Senate trial, 48% say the President should not be removed from office, while 40% think he should be. Republicans are more unified against removal from office (91% say Trump should not be removed) than Democrats are in favor of it (83% say he should be removed). A narrow majority of independents -- 51% -- say Trump ought not to be removed.
Most who approve of the House decision to impeach say the President ought to be removed (87%), but 7% say Trump should not be removed from office even though they approve of impeachment.
But far fewer Iowa voters say they would definitely vote to reelect Trump than say he should not be removed from office by the Senate.
Just 34% of Iowa registered voters say they would definitely vote to reelect if the general election were held today. And more (44%) say they would definitely vote to elect someone else.
Trump carried Iowa by a comfortable 9.4 percentage point margin in the 2016 presidential election, but the poll suggests he may have a tough time holding it again. The 2018 midterms brought warning signs for Trump in Iowa. Democrats picked up two of the state's four congressional districts amid a wave of Democratic victories nationwide, many fueled by suburban and college-educated women.
In the poll, there's a sharp gender gap on Trump's reelection. Half of women say they would definitely vote for someone else, compared with just 37% of men. Among suburban women, 56% say they would definitely back someone other than Trump, as do 58% of white women with college degrees and 62% of unmarried women.
Democrats are largely unified in opposition to Trump, with 88% saying they would definitely vote to elect someone new, while Republicans in the poll were less consistently behind Trump: 79% said they would definitely vote to reelect him while 12% said they'd consider someone else. Independents lean against Trump, with 40% saying they would definitely vote for someone else and 32% saying they would definitely vote for him.
The CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, January 2 through 8 among a random sample of 3,131 Iowa registered voters reached on landlines or cell phones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. It is larger for subgroups.