In California Governor’s Race, Echoes of North vs. South

The San Francisco Chronicle editorial board announced its support this week for the city’s former mayor, Gavin Newsom, for governor. The Los Angeles Times editorial board told readers it favored the former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The endorsements came as ballots were being mailed for California’s June primary. Perhaps it’s not surprising that hometown papers endorsed their former mayors. But how significant will the North-South dynamic and the rivalry between San Francisco and Los Angeles be in the governor’s race?

Posted 4:25 p.m. May 11, 2018 — Updated 4:25 p.m. May 11, 2018

By

THOMAS FULLER

and

INYOUNG KANG, New York Times

The San Francisco Chronicle editorial board announced its support this week for the city’s former mayor, Gavin Newsom, for governor. The Los Angeles Times editorial board told readers it favored the former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The endorsements came as ballots were being mailed for California’s June primary. Perhaps it’s not surprising that hometown papers endorsed their former mayors. But how significant will the North-South dynamic and the rivalry between San Francisco and Los Angeles be in the governor’s race?

We spoke to Garry South, a Democratic political consultant who over the past two decades has served as an adviser to both candidates. His comments were edited and condensed.

Q: Is there an element of regional chauvinism in the governor’s race?

A: The geopolitical reality of California is that most of the voters are in Southern California. But the North votes for its candidates with far greater fervency and frequency than voters in the South vote for their candidates. This is, by the way, why most of our statewide office holders are from San Francisco — Dianne Feinstein, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Jerry Brown.

Q: The Senate race in 2016 was a North-South contest between Loretta Sanchez from Orange County and Kamala Harris, who has roots in the San Francisco Bay Area. Sen. Harris won convincingly. How much can we use that race as a guide for the governor’s race?

A: Loretta Sanchez tried to use this North-South divide against Kamala Harris by saying, for 24 years both of our senators have been from San Francisco. Why don’t we get a senator? It didn’t resonate, partly because she didn’t have enough money to make the case. LA is so vast, diverse and cacophonous. I don’t think the regional argument works in an overt kind of way to say, hey, it’s our turn.

Q: What role will demographics play in the election?

A: Latinos are the largest ethnic group in California; they surpassed Caucasians two or three years ago. But in a typical election they only make up between about 17 and 23 percent of the vote. Having said that, we did a study of Antonio’s three races for mayor of LA. His being on the ballot really goosed Latino turnout. The real question is whether he can pull that off statewide.

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