How Donald Trump fueled Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's victory

Our conversation, conducted via email and edited lightly for flow, is below.

Cillizza: Did ANYONE -- and I mean anyone -- see Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez coming? If so, who?

Janison: Nobody I know was outright predicting it. But there was a lot of buzz about her candidacy.

She was working the Queens part of the district and got very nice receptions at the street-fair level, including liberals in Astoria. A sign of life for her campaign, which I might have taken seriously if covering up close, was her endorsement by the Pan American Democratic Association.

But consider the fact that Crowley has been the party's county chairman in Queens for years, succeeding his mentor and longtime predecessor in Congress Tom Manton, so this was a local party insurgency as well as a district insurgency.

Cillizza: Crowley spent more than $1 million on the race. Ocasio-Cortez spent nowhere near that amount. How did she get her message out?

Janison: Part of the answer is that Ocasio-Cortez used the standard insurgent-candidate methods of legwork and whatever ads and mailings she could afford, emphasizing messages along the lines of Bernie Sanders.

At a certain point the Democrats in the district either knew Crowley or they didn't and they found him useful or they didn't. Being a familiar name can cut two ways and even a (former New York City Mayor Michael) Bloomberg-size war chest might not help if your turnout isn't available. Remember primaries are low-turnout affairs, so getting your voters out is really the whole contest. (Editor's note: Ocasio-Cortez won with under 16,000 total votes.)

Cillizza: How much of this upset was local issues and how much was it the broader national fight about the party base vs. the party establishment?

Janison: There was surely a Hillary Clinton-Bernie Sanders echo, party insurgent against party establishment. Also Tuesday, first-timers beat old pros in Long Island Democratic primaries, to face GOP incumbents.

But changing demographics of the 14th District were another factor. Ocasio-Cortez hit just the right blend of youth, ethnic and ideological appeal. Pro-immigrant/anti-President Donald Trump sentiment was fuel. She called for abolishing ICE. Usually you think of a Republican as working to fend off the coming demographic (storm). Insiders note the Democrats who controlled the last redistricting in Albany were not Crowley's friends. He's a Queens guy representing a number of Bronx communities. Still, he was no conservative -- and I suspect there was less antagonism to him among Democratic voters than indifference to keeping him.

Cillizza: Ocasio-Cortez is almost certainly coming to Congress now. What impact -- if any -- would you expect her to have in Washington or on Democrats more broadly?

Janison: The Democratic fantasy for her can be referenced in 1972 when a young Liz Holtzman beat an elder powerful liberal Rep. Emanuel Celler. Two years after her shocking win in a monolithic Brooklyn Democratic district she was taking part in impeaching the Republican president. But Holtzman was in the party majority. Either way, Ocasio-Cortez will have star appeal -- 2020 convention speaker? -- and will certainly show other young women they can win a party insurgency.

Cillizza: Finish this sentence: "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's win boiled down to ____________." Now, explain.

Janison: A Sanders-like "enough with the centrism" on issues; Crowley inertia, long term changes in the district, and Trump-baited energy.