Facing a Democratic Wave, Republicans Refuse to Throw Trump Overboard

WASHINGTON — If Republicans and President Donald Trump are going down to defeat in November’s midterms, they are evidently going down together.

Faced with a mortifying special election loss in what had been a Trump-loving Pennsylvania House district, Republicans on Capitol Hill did not point fingers in the president’s direction. Instead, they blamed their candidate, Rick Saccone, for running a lackluster effort while crediting the president with putting Saccone within reach of victory by firing up Trump supporters at a rally last weekend.

“The president came in and helped close this race and got it to where it is right now,” House Speaker Paul Ryan said Wednesday as he and his fellow Republicans sought to put the best possible gloss on the latest and most definitive portent yet that their party — not to mention his own speakership — is in severe peril in a very challenging midterm election climate.

Statements like those and other recent developments highlight just how reluctant Republicans are to put any daylight between themselves and Trump despite obvious political danger ahead.

History has shown that a president’s popularity is a key factor in determining the extent of a governing party’s losses in midterm elections. Presidents almost always lose congressional seats in midterm contests, but those polling below 50 percent get hit particularly hard. With Trump’s approval rating now hovering around 40 percent, House Republicans face potential losses deep enough to cost them control of the House, handing Democrats formidable power to challenge the president in the final two years of his term.

But congressional Republicans are also well aware that, among the conservative Republican base, Trump is more popular than they are. That reality is reflected by the fact that congressional Republicans and the White House have aligned themselves more closely on such high-profile issues as gun control and the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. Congressional Republicans have also continued to shy away from talk of the president’s personal conduct and management of the White House.

And despite a wide split between Republicans on Capitol Hill and Trump on his proposed new steel and aluminum tariffs, party leaders express little enthusiasm for directly taking on Trump even though they worry the new tariffs could roil the economy and undermine what they see as their best argument for re-election: tax cuts.

“I think it’s highly unlikely we’d be dealing with that in a legislative way,” Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and the majority leader, told reporters Tuesday, dismissing calls by some Republicans to block the tariffs via congressional action.

Republican members of the House Intelligence Committee abruptly ended its investigation into Russian collusion this week, concluding that they could find no basis to believe the president or his allies did anything wrong. They also broke with an intelligence community consensus that the Russians meant to help Trump.

Their finding came despite the fact that a special counsel continues a wide-ranging investigation that could produce different results. But it cheered Trump and the White House and reflected a view by many House Republicans that their own inquiry was unfairly undermining the president — and by extension themselves — and had gone on long enough.

The decision drew a strong rebuke from Democrats, including Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader.

“Sadly, far too many of our friends on the other side of the aisle have been more concerned with protecting the president politically than defending our democracy,” said Schumer, who also noted the White House has refused to impose new sanctions on Russia that were ordered by Congress but has drawn no Republican criticism for its inaction. “From the top on down through the rank and file,” Schumer said, “the Republican Party that used to roar like a lion against Russia now squeaks like a mouse.” On gun control, the president only days ago seemed poised to offer a drastic departure from Republican orthodoxy on gun issues by pushing for more comprehensive background checks, raising the age limit to buy weapons and encouraging members of his party to be bold about breaking with the National Rifle Association. But instead of using presidential clout to push his party in a new direction and put lawmakers on the spot, the White House backed off and embraced more ideas more compatible with the NRA while establishing a commission to explore other alternatives.

On Wednesday, as students around the country demonstrated for new gun control laws, the Republican-led House passed a measure that focused more on physical improvements to bolster school safety, and the White House said it was most pleased with the progress.

Despite intense public and news media scrutiny on Trump’s involvement with a pornographic film actress and payments to her by his personal attorney, top congressional Republicans have essentially ignored the subject, with Ryan saying recently that he had not “put a second of thought” into the topic. The administration’s continuing personnel turmoil has also elicited little public concern from congressional Republicans who continue to call for quick consideration and confirmation of nominees to fill increasing numbers of vacancies.

While Republicans publicly deflected suggestions that the Pennsylvania race was a sign of a rejection of the president and an indictment of their own performance, party strategists acknowledged privately that the political environment represented real danger. They argue, however, that Republicans could still win by mounting strong campaigns and being prepared.

For congressional Republicans and the White House, that appears to mean sticking together, win or lose.