Name: Expert: NC virus case growth 'seems to have plateaued for now'
Uploaded: 2020-04-20T20:25:14-0400
Duration: 327816
Description: Aaron McKethan, assistant professor of population health sciences at the Duke University School of Medicine and a senior policy fellow at the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy, says the time for coronavirus cases to double has slowed, but the number of people being tested needs to greatly expand to get a better idea of the extent of the virus in North Carolina.

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Aaron McKethan, assistant professor of population health sciences at the Duke University School of Medicine and a senior policy fellow at the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy, says the time for coronavirus cases to double has slowed, but the number of people being tested needs to greatly expand to get a better idea of the extent of the virus in North Carolina.

YOU CAN COUNT ON WITH WRAL NEWS. >> THERE IS A TEAM OF EXPERTS WORKING WITH THE NUMBERS WE BRING YOU EVERY DAY TO PREDICT HOW THE VIRUS SPREADS. HOW FAR REACHING THE IMPACT COULD BE, EARLIER THIS MONTH, THE STATE PROJECTED HAS AS MANY AS 750,000 IN NORTH CAROLINA, TO BE AFFECTED BY JUNE FIRST IF ALL SOCIAL DISTANCING WERE TO STOP AT THE END OF APRIL. ONE OF THOSE WORKING TO COMPILE THE DATA, DOCTOR AARON McKEITH AND WITH THE HEALTH CENTER FOR HEALTH POLICY. HE'S JOINING US WE ASSUME TONIGHT. THANKS FOR TALKING WITH US AGAIN. YOUR TEAMS LATEST UPDATE CAME IN FRIDAY JUST BEFORE THE WEEKEND. HAVE THE PREDICTIONS CHANGED? >> WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR HAVING ME BACK. WE DO SEE EVIDENCE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND LAST FEW WEEKS THAT TOOK ON THE DOUBLING RATE OF THE CONFIRMED CASES IT HAS SLOWED FROM THE DOUBLING TIME OF ABOUT TWO DAYS, THE BEGINNING OF THE EPIDEMIC 25 AND NOW 10 DAYS AND SO, WE WANT TO SEE THOSE RATES CONTINUE AS THE RATES RAMP UP AS THE SECRETARY ADMISSIONS EARLIER IN THE BROADCAST. WHAT IS I MEAN? IT MEANS THAT THE RATE OF GROWTH OF THE EPIDEMIC IS GETTING BETTER. IT SEEMS TO HAVE PLATEAUED FOR NOW AND THAT IS REALLY ENCOURAGING NEWS. >> IT SEEMS TO HAVE PLATEAUED FOR NOW, SO, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE PEAKS AND THE IMPORTANCE. WE TALKED ABOUT THIS A LOT, A COUPLE OF THINGS HERE, SHOULD BE EXPECT TO HEAR MORE ON PLATEAUING IN THE COMING DAYS? >> WELL, THIS IS OF COURSE -- EVERYTHING ABOUT THIS IS MATHEMATICALLY CHALLENGING AS WELL AS OTHER WAYS CHALLENGING. IT IS CHALLENGING MATHEMATICALLY BECAUSE WE ARE NOT TESTING NEARLY ENOUGH PEOPLE YET TO GET A REALLY CLEAR SENSE OF WHAT PLATEAU MEANS FOR THE WHOLE POPULATION, BUT THEY REPORTED THAT ABOUT 6900 OR 7000 OR SO CONFIRMED CASES, THAT IS OF COURSE A SEVERE UNDERCOUNT OF THE POPULATION AS TESTING. WE ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT MORE CASES. WE THINK IT IS NOT HARD TO IMAGINE THAT ONE WEEK FROM NOW WE WILL HAVE SOME ARE BETWEEN 80 509,000 CASES. SO, THE CASELOADS GOING UP, BUT THE RATE OF TRANSMISSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN SOMEWHAT. >> YOU KNOW, IT IS HARD TO GET MY HEART WRAPPED AROUND THE NUMBERS ON TESTING. WE KEEP HEARING THERE'S NOT ENOUGH TESTING. IS VERY MAGIC NUMBER THAT WOULD SAY THIS IS ENOUGH TESTING? >> WELL, IT IS A GOOD AND A HARD QUESTION AND IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE TO WANT TO HAVE A NUMBER. SO, ONE WAY OF THINKING ABOUT IT IS WE WANT EVERY NORTH CAROLINIAN THAT HAS SYMPTOMS FOR THE HOSPITAL OR DOCTOR'S OFFICE WITH -- SO-CALLED INFLUENZA -LIKE SYMPTOMS OR INFLUENZA -LIKE ILLNESS TO HAVE A TEST. AND WE'RE ALWAYS AWAY FOR NOW, THAT MIGHT BE SOMETHING BETWEEN 10, MAYBE 15,000 A DAY, SO I THINK WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP. AND WE ARE, BUT, IT IS CHALLENGING BECAUSE THESE ARE NOT DICTATED JUST BY THE EFFORT OF PEOPLE HEREINAFTER ALANNA, THE CHALLENGES COME AS YOU KNOW, THESE ARE GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS. MORE EQUIPMENT, SO, WE ARE IN THE LINE TO GET IT. IT IS GOING TO BE SOMETHING WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP AFTER. >> A COUPLE OF THINGS REAL QUICKLY. WHAT IF I'M NOT SHOWING ANY SYMPTOMS BUT I WANT A TEST? SHOULD I BE GIVEN ON?>> WELCOME I WOULD CONSULT THE DOCTOR AND LET A DOCTOR GUIDE YOU ON THAT. I AM NOT A PHYSICIAN. BUT I WOULD SAY THAT -- IN THIS PHASE OF THE EPIDEMIC, WHERE WE DO HAVE NOT ENOUGH TESTS, YOU KNOW, I THINK IF YOU CAN SAFELY STAY AT HOME AND YOU WILL HAVE UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS, LIKE YOUR DOCTOR WOULD SAY, LET'S SAVE THE TEST FOR THOSE THAT REALLY NEED IT. BUT AGAIN, CONSULT YOUR DOCTOR. YOUR DOCTOR WILL GUIDE YOU ABOUT THE TESTS AS WELL AS WHETHER YOU NEED ONE. >> LAST QUESTION TONIGHT, IF YOU ARE TALKING WITH THE GOVERNOR ABOUT REOPENING THE STATE, WHAT DO YOU TELL THE GOVERNOR TONIGHT? >> RIGHT, WELL, I WOULD TELL THE GOVERNOR AND MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY AND ANYONE WHO ASKS, THAT THE MODELS ARE ONLY AS GOOD AS THE QUALITY OF THE DATA AND THE COMPLETENESS OF THE DATA WE HAVE AND THAT IS NOT REALLY THE CASE HERE. WE DON'T HAVE PERFECT DATA. BUT WHAT THEY DO DO IS INFORM US THAT FLIPPING A SWITCH OVERNIGHT AND TURNING EVERYTHING BACK ON AS THOUGH NONE OF THIS HAPPENED WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT WE HAVE A REAL RAMP UP OF CASES AND OVERWHELMED HOSPITALS AND EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS IS LIGHTING THE WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT THIS IS LESS THAN AN ON OFF SWITCH AND MORE LIKE A DIMMER SWITCH. WE APPARENTLY HERE TODAY BUT IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT CAN BE THAT CAPACITY CAN BE VERY QUICKLY, BUT THE KEY THING IS, ALL THE HARD WORK AND SACRIFICES BY THE PEOPLE ACROSS THE STATE, AS PAINFUL AND STRESSFUL AS IT HAS BEEN, THEY ARE PAYING OFF. WE GOT TO STICK WITH THIS A LITTLE LONGER AND I'M SURE THE GOVERNMENT WILL ANNOUNCE SOME NEW POLICIES FOR MAY, JUNE AND JULY. BUT THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT WILL SLIP ON AND TURN BACK THE CLOCK WE WILL HAVE TO GO MUCH MORE SLOWLY AS WE MOVE SLOWLY.

David Crabtree

Matthew Burns

Expert: NC virus case growth 'seems to have plateaued for now'

Duke professor Aaron McKethan

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Get the latest WRAL WeatherCenter Forecast whenever you need it, including the DUALDoppler5000 and the 7-Day Forecast.

I'm meteorologist, Amy Wilmoth in the WRL severe weather center tracking a cold front that will move through the state throughout the day. Today, we'll have some light rain with this perhaps moderate rain at times, but most of you won't get a ton of rain. It's just going to be some light passing showers at four o'clock this afternoon, we'll still have some rain showing up on the radar scattered showers possible. Uh, basically anywhere aside from our northern counties, our northern counties should be dry at that point by 5 p.m. or so. The rain is south of the triangle impacting our southern counties during the evening. Commute, still some showers around in our southern counties at 7 p.m. But beyond that, the rain will start to move out and it will be dry overnight tonight. And we're back to sunshine as we head into tomorrow. Look at how much rain we could get. It's less than 1/10 of an inch of rain. So we're not going to get much out of this system, but at least it's something, it's our only rain chance in the next seven days. So we'll have some light rain moving through thanks to the cold front, temperatures will likely get into the low eighties in our southern counties where we'll have sunshine a little bit longer. 74 for the high in Raleigh and Durham, 75 in Roxboro, 73 for the high temperature in South Hill, Virginia. So temperatures running pretty close to normal throughout the day today. Good news. If you're headed to the Bulls game this evening at 635 it looks like the rain will be out of here. We have a 20% chance for rain, but the best chance will be in the southern part of the viewing area, 70 degrees, the expected temperature at 6 p.m. 68 by seven and in the mid six by 8 p.m. So maybe take the jacket or the sweater with you as temperatures fall into the sixties starting around seven o'clock or so. So we have passing showers today. Generally light rain a little breezy at times with the high of 74 tonight, we'll have mostly clear skies. We'll get down to 51 beautiful weather. Thursday, partly cloudy to mostly sunny with a high of 72. Pretty much the same thing on Friday. Temperatures will be in the low seventies for highs. We're up to 76 Saturday and then low eighties by Sunday, mid to upper eighties for high temperatures in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday of next week.

WRAL WeatherCenter Forecast

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Brian Shrader flies over the site of a plane crash at Raleigh-Durham International Airport approximately three hours after the accident.

Seen some activity just in the past 10 minutes or so. I want to take you outside Sky five right now for a live look at the scene. We saw a van being escorted to the runway there and someone got out and now there appears to be a really careful inspection of the debris going on. So we're working to confirm if that may be the NTSB investigation team arriving at the scene. Let's zoom out and give you some about where this is. There are two main runways at RDU International and this is in the grassy field next to the runway that mostly serves terminal one on the east side of the airport, that runway remains closed while this investigation continues at the top of your screen. That is the other main runway that serves terminal two, mostly that runway is open. So we have two things going on here that could affect your flights for the rest of the day and maybe even into tomorrow, the airport takeoff and landing capacity is roughly reduced by half because they are only working with one runway. And if you have a flight coming out of terminal one, maybe Southwest, you're going to have to take that crossover all the way out to that other runway. It's going to add a lot of extra time.

Sky 5 flies over RDU plane crash 3 hours later 

A UNC Health physician and pilot were taken to the hospital Wednesday after a small plane crashed at Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU).


Sky 5 flies over plane crash at RDU

RDU Airport Authority gives an update on a plane crash that sent a physician and pilot to the hospital. The crash occurred Wednesday morning on a flight that took off from Wilmington.

<p>Landguth first, I want to extend my thoughts to those affected by this morning's aircraft accident and thank our first responders for their quick action to respond. The airport authority and its mutual aid partners responded to an aircraft accident at RDU involving a general aviation aircraft. The accident occurred at approximately 10:10 a.m. in the grass next to runway five, right 23 left. The flight was arriving from Wilmington, North Carolina. The A the aircraft is owned by medical Air Inc and operated by UN C air operations. The aircraft had two people on board, one pilot and one passenger. Both were transported to area hospitals. The federal A Bush administration issued a ground stop that was lifted at approximately 1130 this morning. The Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board have both been notified. The National Transportation Safety Board is en route and expected to arrive within the next hour at which time we will conduct an accident investigation. Rdu's runway five left 23 right reopened to departing and arriving aircraft around 11:30 a.m. this morning. Are you experiencing approximately 70 delays and several arriving flights were diverted to other airports? Until ground stock was lifted, travelers should contact their airline for the latest updates regarding the flight status. And of course questions about the identity and condition of the pilot and passenger should be directed to UN C health. And at this time I'll try to answer any questions. You may have, uh, the one, any other accidents in, in the past. I'm not familiar with any other accidents have occurred with that operation. I don't know, uh, that's the role of the National Transportation Safety Board. They'll actually come in and do the investigation. Uh, and at some point in the future, they write up a report and determine what the cause of the accident was. You know, that there was no notification to the airport authority or to the FAA uh about any type of emergency on board. Do we have a guy? We don't, all we know that we've got them out of the airplane and we've got them transported to local hospitals. We know situations like this and delays have a ripple effect on, you know, flights. Do you have any idea what type of impact we'll see here in our view and for not sure, but what we're going to encourage everybody to do is reach out to your airlines. We'll be able to give you real time information about the impact of your particular flight. Ok. I believe some of them went to Greensboro and I think a couple went to Charlotte as well. What, what to be impacted due to the NTSD. Say that one more time at this point in time, what we call the west side of our airport is now open the investigation they'll conduct will all be on the east side. So at this point, we are anticipating normal operations returning to normal operations from this point forward. I don't think that anything that they're doing regarding the investigation or where they would have to investigate would have any impact to the west side of the airport. No, the aircraft is still on the airfield itself. It's on the east side of the field. So terminal one that runways the east side of the field, that's where the debris field actually sits, the west side of the field is open and operational and safe to operate. Not that I'm aware of in operations for you throughout this event today. What was your main concern concerning the passengers that were in the internals? Right. I think our primary focus when, when that accident occurred were the two people sitting in that aircraft? Our primary mission is to make sure we can get to them and try to rescue them and try to make sure that we can get them in a safe condition as fast as we possibly can. Uh secondarily is trying to figure out then how we recover and get our operations back up and running. Mhm. How does that affect? What goes on term? Yeah, so great. Question. So the team has figured out a way to get all the aircraft they're gonna operate at terminal one. Your Southwest develops. Uh We've got a crossover taxi way that we can actually get them through our general aviation aircraft. We've got a crossover taxiway, we can get them to. But the rest of the uh accident scene is actually kind of isolated and closed and locked off. Yeah, you're terminal one at this point in time. Once they can get back on their schedule, it's going to be a normal operations. All right. Thank you guys. All right. Thank you. Grab your phone, right.</p>

News conference: RDU plane crash sent 2 to hospital

A small plane crashed at Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU) Wednesday morning.



WRAL News coverage: Plane crashes at RDU, pilot and physician injured

A small plane crash with injuries was reported Wednesday at Raleigh-Durham International Airport.

Expert: NC virus case growth 'seems to have plateaued for now'

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