Duke scholars discuss high voter turnout for this election
Three Duke University scholars discuss high voter turnout this year and how this could affect the result of the election.
had four years Thio evaluate the performance of the incumbent in office. Eso so that said, we're in a two party system and in a two party system, the presidential race is almost always going to be competitive enough for swing voters to make a difference. I know there's been a lot of attention to the fact that you know, Biden has a pretty sizable lead at the national level. But of course, um, really, the results are going to come down. Thio handful of Tipping Point states and in those tipping point states, swing voters absolutely can make a difference. The other thing I would say is that that when we think about the potential for the election, Thio, um you know, swing one way or the other that we have to keep in mind. That information learned during the campaign is able to influence not only how people vote, but also if they vote, um at all and and particularly in today's political environment, that that is a critical piece of the puzzle in terms of figuring out what what the election result is likely toe look like, and how likely it is that that one can or the other could win. Um, at the end of the day, you know, usually about 90% of Democrats vote for the Democratic candidate, and 90% of Republicans vote for the Republican candidate. Um, and yet the people who are, um, kind of the middle middle are are still enough thio to make a difference. Absolutely. Thank you for that lot s'more to dig into their but Professor Mullen for now, I'd like toe move on to you. We know that climate change is an existential threat. Thio us on this planet. But co vid another aspect of this extraordinary year have dominated the discourse in the run up to this election. How much do you think environmental issues are driving voters to turn out this year if it all well, environmental issues are getting more attention during this election. But I don't expect them to be an important issue Driving turnout at the national level. Americans concerned about the environment is on the rise, especially during the Trump administration. Onda majority now want to see some kind of federal policy action on climate change, but those who were most concerned about the environment and about climate change are either Democratic partisans who already have a high propensity to vote, or young people who often don't vote even though they care about this issue and other political issues. And professor delegates could tell you more about the barriers to young people voting. Um, but it's not a national election. It's It's a set of state elections on DSM. Of those state elections could be close on dim places like Pennsylvania or Ohio. It's possible that some of those Tipping Point voters could be concerned about potential restrictions on fracking or in Texas, potential restrictions on oil activity or limitations on oil subsidies that would affect the industry. And that could drive small numbers of people to vote who might not otherwise or to vote for President Trump instead of Vice President Biden. And so this is the irony of environmental politics that the geographic distribution of policy impacts can drive voters toward, you know, can drive outcomes toward positions that air counter to the majority preference. Sure, absolutely thank you. I've got lots of follow up questions for that, but right now, also, I'd like to move on to Professor Marquez. We know that the Latino population in the U. S continues to grow on. Uh, certainly I want to dig into later the fact that this is not a monolithic population by any means. But are there common factors that are driving Latino voters to the polls? And what do you think some of those are? Yeah, it's really interesting. If you'd asked in December, Immigration was the biggest issue on the minds of a lot of Latino voters. And now that has changed in Latino voters look a lot like the rest of voters. Theis Economy, Healthcare and Cove. It are the three most important issues for Latino voters right now. The economy not surprisingly, because in April, Hispanic unemployment was something like 18.5% which is higher even than it was during the great recession. Healthcare. Like a lot of Americans, there's a great deal of concern about affordable health care. What the You know what the alternatives to obamacare looked like? Andi with a covert outbreak, of course, Hispanics of three times more likely than white Americans to get cove it and almost five times as likely to be hospitalized. And so because Latinos are in many cases of central workers and frontline workers who are unable to quarantine in the ways that we might hope to be able to protect themselves from this, um, virus, the management of Cove. It is really a central issue, and I think there is a lot of concern about how it's been handled by this current administration. But I also think, um, an important point that professor delegates made is also the things that are keeping people at home right. And and there has been a campaign of misinformation in swing states like Florida and the Spanish language media, um, largely around Q and A on based conspiracies. Excuse me. Conspiracy theories, um, to try and keep Latino voters away from the polls and to tell them that their vote doesn't matter or, alternatively, to move them to the trump side of this, uh, equation. And so I think it's both about what is driving Latino voters to the polls, but also what's keeping them away. Oh, thank you very much. And again, I've got lots of follow ups, uh, to ask you about that. But for now, we will move on to Jessica Sullivan. You have Bean, the student leader of Duke's effort to get people to the polls this year. What have you found to be the biggest motivating factors for students and other young people toe vote in this election? Yeah, thank you. I think similarly to Cecilia. My answer would have been much different if you had asked me, you know, a year or even, you know, six months ago. But I think that now this has really become a referendum on what we want our future toe look like. And so in a lot of ways, our education has been disrupted and the world that we're graduating into a so much different than it waas just a year ago. So the economy and really everything else is really driving a lot of young people to vote because we realized that, you know, this is really important and this really matters. But I also think it's important to look at what has previously kept young people from voting and what isn't in place now preventing them. And so I think young people have previously had really low turnout rates and not because they don't care about voting or because they're not politically engaged, but because they just don't have all the information that they need to vote were highly mobile population moving very frequently from dorms top campus to wherever else that may be. And I think it's hard to kind of keep up with exactly what you need to dio when you're voting patterns and your, you know, experiences haven't been molded over 2030 40 years. And so there have really been a lot of social media campaigns, both here at Duke and just in the broader community, um, in North Carolina, especially as a swing state directly targeting young people, not just with these kind of motivational messages, but really with exactly what they need to dio so dates and times and locations and really just telling people you know not how not why to cast a vote, but actually how to cast their vote. Excellent. Thank you very much and thank you to all of our Panelists. For those opening answers, I'd like to stay on the theme of young voters and professor delegates. I'd like to come back to you. You know, we know every election were told that if young voters turned out in sufficient numbers, they could influence elections this way. Elections on despite the passion that we see amongst young people that are engaged. We never seem to see the turnout toe match that of the polls. Do you have a sense that that is going to be any different this year so far? And if so, what do you think is driving that or not driving it? If you don't think it will be anything, sure. So I think this is the opportunity for me to plug my new book Making Young voters that that came out with Cambridge University Press in February. So thank you for that set up for anybody who wants more information. You know, I think that the key thing is and and I think Jessica did a great job of of kind of explaining part of the issue is that there has not been an attitudinal barrier that instead, um, there are a number of rules about when how who convert haute, um that vary across states and vary across time and that these things can create barriers for new and inexperienced voters? Um, uh, you know, there are unprecedented levels of interest and engagement this time around. On the other hand, it's a little bit hard to predict if we will see a t end of the day as high of turnout as some of the early voting might suggest. Or the polling numbers might suggest because, you know, if if students are now, you know, at home because their colleges are remote, um, then the voting process and registration process could in fact be easier. On the other hand, if they were, um, a college student when their university shut down and they suddenly moved, it suddenly got far more complicated. Um, there have been some 300 different lawsuits about theological rules governing this election. And, um, at the end of the day were regardless of the effect of any one of those rules, um, it certainly creates some confusion about what exactly people might need to do in order. Thio vote. Um, there is wide variability. I'm very proud of North Carolina for where we are. On the other hand, if you look at, um, you know a state like Alabama or Mississippi or Texas, you know, as absentee or mail in ballots might need to be notarized in some states posted Just paid some states postage is not, um, you know, when I talked to students that even the idea of having Thio, you know, figure out about postage is something that is, you know, different from daily life. So So there are a number of ways of the pandemic has made voting this time around potentially more complicated. There are certainly, um, compensating efforts by a number of universities and organizations, um, to provide clarification, But it creates some uncertainty about the extent to which, you know, we're going to see the translation of these really high levels of of political engagement. Um, at the ballot box. Sure. Thank you very much. I'd like to remind everybody on the call that you can post questions is the Q and a window? We've already got questions coming in, and we will get to all of those. So thank you very much and keep them coming. Professor Marquez, I'd like toe move on to you and pick up on something that press elegance was just talking about Andi Jessica Sullivan and that, um, theatrics s of people to information to know how to vote. You know, you mentioned about how there is misinformation out there that's discouraging people in Latino communities to vote. Do you get the sense that access to information, how to register, how to vote, whether to vote early and and absolutely whether access to that kind of information is also a barrier to people in Latino communities, communities voting this year. Yeah, I think one of the challenges that Cove it poses is that the most effective turnout strategy historically for Latinos in these elections has been door to door campaigning. Digital ads and television ads have been less effective and actually moving Latino voters to the polls. And obviously this has been incredibly restricted in this moment when it is harder to go door to door. Although there are some heroic efforts by local organizations to continue to do that in ways that are safe, Um, and ethical So I think that is part of it. I mean, it is true that both campaigns have done ah, lot of work. Thio move. Latino voters with their digital ads and I've been in their television ads have been sort of shocked at the diversity of Spanish language ads that we see including different accents, depending on which region of the country you're in. Um, yes, I think that that is a concern in a lot of places, especially those places that Professor Hill against mentioned like Alabama and Mississippi, where we're seeing, um, increased. Latino populations and Latinos are increasingly large part of the electorate. But the language access is still really limited. On voting in general is challenging, and especially if you're a monolingual Spanish speaker or a monolingual speaker of a indigenous language because you're coming from Guatemala or you're coming from another Central American country. So I think there's Ah lot of language access issues, especially in the Sun Belt, which is a place that we are bigger and bigger part of the electorate. Sure, absolutely thank you. Jessica Sullivan. Before we move on from this this issue of access, I want to come back to something you said about how young voters this year have have access to information or tools that they didn't previously on. One thing that struck me is that, you know, in in past elections, young voters who weren't necessarily engage with TV news or print media wouldn't wouldn't know this stuff. But of course, now we can reach people through social media. I'm wondering if you think how much of a difference you think social media has made in terms of effort to get information about voting out to young voters. I think it's made a huge difference. Um, speaking specifically about our work with Duke votes are Instagram has really been the biggest channel to reach students, especially since people are really scattered all across the country. On DSO, We'll have people kind of messaging us with questions, and that's a great way to reach people. Whereas in the past we could have kind of had more of an in person way of answering those questions. And then we're just constantly putting out graphics and all sorts of things that are informational and are specific to Duke students. Eso That's been a great way for us to reach out to people and then just looking at social media. More broadly, campaigns have been using social media ads very frequently. I know my friends and I, and all of us are really just getting, you know, hounded by these ads all the time. And so I think it's been really recognized as the communications tool that it is to reach young people. Um, fantastic. Thank you, e. I would love Thio jump in really just quickly, though, because we do know from the literature that that face to face campaigning that Professor Marquez mentioned is far more effective than communication. I mean, you know, information is information on the one hand, but in terms of mobilization efforts, and that's where there are really concerns. Where the, you know, for the Democrats were Democrats were more likely to shut down some of that face to face voter registration efforts. Um, the Republicans have unnecessarily, and we're seeing that now in terms of those final voter registration numbers that that came in where the G. O. P. Really had some last minute surges that the, um, Democratic Democrats didn't in states like Florida and Pennsylvania and frankly, even North Carolina. And so So you know, yes, Social media is terrific for particularly being able to reach young people. But I think the pandemic has created a unique challenge in terms of the personal canvassing that is, um, known to be particularly effective and particularly effective for, um, particular communities like Latinos, African Americans and and, um, that that creates this incredible uncertainty for this election cycle. Sure, absolutely. Thank you. I'm following up on that. Professor Mullen, I wanted to ask you, You know, you've done a lot of work on turnout in general this because this election is taking place in a pandemic. There's so much about this election that is unprecedented in American history. When we when we looked at to analyze these things ahead of time, is it foolhardy to think that we can make any predictions or in for any thing based on registrations, early voting? Because this year, with the pandemic, with all the you know with covert everything that's going on, things are so unprecedented that its's a blip. It's an outlier, and nothing actually kind of makes sense. I don't know if there was even a question in there. It makes it a lot harder, right, because we have models, right? And we have a long history of polling. Um, that has changed over time, with changes in technology and changes, and people sort of modes of communication, you know, polling. Um, firms, right update there their procedures in order to really try thio, capture representative samples of who they think will show up on Election Day and doing that is a lot harder. During a pandemic because we now don't have a really good sense of what that electorate is. That's what polling firms were trying to get is a picture of that electorate, and we don't know what that electorate is. In some ways, you might think, Oh, well, it's become easier because more people have voted early. And so, um, you know, a pollster can call and say, You know, how likely are you to vote? And more people are going to say, Well, I voted already, and so that should make it easier. But in fact, it doesn't right, because what's the bias? Your building in by the fact that those air, not all of the voters and, um, there's a partisan bias and who's voting early and it varies across the States. And so a lot of these sort of methods that that that polling firms have developed, you know over time over decades, are being really challenged this year. Um, and they're trying and, you know, the national polls really do seem to be pretty consistent across different procedures across different, you know, methods for developing these estimates, which provides some confidence in the results. When you see a lot of consistent polls, a state level, they're not quite as consistent. And getting those, um, getting those samples right and getting those projections about who's going to really be part of the electorate is hard. When you have 300 lawsuits going on about what the election rules are, right, we don't know what the electorate will look like, not only because of the barriers to participation, um, by cove it and buy new rules, but also because you know how well a lot of these votes get counted. You're absolutely Thank you. Thanks for everybody who's been posting questions. We're gonna tackle some of those. Professor Marquez, We've had a question for you. You mentioned about the confidence or lack of confidence in the electoral system among Latino voters. Can you point to any disinformation, Um, that you've seen about that? Is it happening here in North Carolina as well as in Florida? As far as you could tell, um, it's happening more in Florida. The most common way that this is happening is through WhatsApp, which is, ah, messaging app that a lot of it seems like Latinos tend to use more, in part because it is easier to use. Of course, this is when something is backing up outside my window, because this is a knack that Latinos primarily used, um to be able to communicate. And so the same way that we're all receiving text messages asking for $5 asking for $25 telling us how to vote, they're receiving Spanish language media that, um uh, that that sort of argues for Q and on theory so they'll receive YouTube videos. That suggests that Joe Biden is part of a ring of pedophiles led by a couple of Democrats. And so there it's primarily in Florida. Part of that, I think, is the density of the Latino population there, and part of it is the conservatives of it conservativism off the Latino population there as well. So because the Cuban American population is so much larger there, and Cubans are are among the most conservative Latino population next to Venezuelans, who are also ah high, um, density population in Florida. That's part of the reason I think that there are more prevalent in places like Florida and a little bit in Texas. But they're mostly around thes conspiracy theories, um, that are connected to Q and on and this idea that Trump is kind of saving us from a deep state conspiracy led by Clinton, Soros etcetera s. So I think that has worked, especially with some young Latin X voters. There's been an effort on the part of the Trump campaign to peel off young, black and young Latin X voters. We see this with some of his recent ads about the crime bill and super predators, but yeah, the Q and on conspiracy theories. Air certainly happening in Florida haven't seen reporting of them happening in North Carolina, but I think they are making a difference. I don't know if it's, Ah measurable one, but it's ah concerning concerning one. Oh, absolutely, Thank you. I appreciate you highlighting the importance of whats app to communities outside the U. S. Is hard to overstate how huge that is as a medium by which information is exchanged. Professor Villegas wanted to move on to you. We've had a question here that maybe you could tackle. You know, we are seeing a big uptick in co vid cases and spread in some swing states, including North Carolina. Do you think How do you think that this will affect turnout on Election Day. If it all you have any sense of that? Yeah. I mean, I think that a lot of people are kind of familiar with what? How this is likely to play out. That that given, um, that we are seeing Democrats are more likely to do early voting. And it perhaps, in part, reflecting. Um, you know, President trumps rhetoric about Malin and early voting that it really does put, um, you know, Trump and Republicans more at risk if they are waiting until election day because you don't know, you know, is there gonna be a hurricane? Is there going to be a covert outbreak and what the implications will be? Um, likewise, That also means that in states that have either, no, you know, very limited early voting or fewer opportunities or higher burdens to to be able thio do mail in voting. Um, this is where there, I think, are real concerns about what the implications will will be for co vid on, um, turn out this time around on a completely different topic. I just had to raise us before I think about it. I'm speaking of advertising. I was scrolling through Instagram yesterday and the U S interior, um, instagram account posted a what is essentially a trump campaign video that is talking about Trump's conservation efforts and how he is a conservation president. And I just had Thio get Professor Mullins. Um, you know, like I've been I've been dying to tell Professor Mullen about this because one is it's just, you know, the people who are following the U S interior on instagram. I mean, the comments on this instagram opposed are just, you know, they they are just a complete take down, Um, and it's just such an unprecedented use of a you know, federal, um you know, taxpayer, um, you know, social media account Thio do something that's so explicitly political and so, you know, going back to the point that, like, we are in this kind of unprecedented time, that yes, part of what makes it unprecedented is the fact that we are in the midst of a pandemic and all of these rules. But it's also unprecedented in terms of how this administration is, um, it is, is campaigning and and the type of information that that is being shared actually Thank you for that and to to pose that to Professor Mullen in the form of a question. One thing I think regardless of anybody's political background, that we can see that the president has appointed people to run federal agencies who in in some cases don't appear to believe in the mission of those agencies. And that certainly appears to be the case as it pertains to the environment, Do you see? And that's certainly spent a lot of anger. Do you think that that might be a significant motivating factor? I mean, because we know that anger certainly fuels people to do things. I mean, you think that that kind of could make a measurable difference in terms of driving people to the polls? Because, of course, apathy keeps people from the polls, but strong feelings drive them on. There is certainly a reason for people to feel strongly about how this administration has handled the environment over the last four years. Yeah, we've seen just an enormous politicization of the environmental agencies, right? I didn't know about the, um Instagram, Department of Interior Post, but I do know about the replacement of the chief scientist at Noah in the last few days, which has been an agency, um, that has not been as affected by the by the sort of partisan tides that have that have overwhelmed some of the other agencies. Um, EPA and Bureau of Land Management and and so on. Um, and it z profound. It has had huge policy consequences. Some of them we are still, um, trying Thio understand about how enduring they will be right? Because a lot of them are being challenged in the courts and those court cases are unfolding. Um, but there have been profound policy consequences a za consequence, you know, as as a product of, um this real politicization of the agencies, whether that effects turnout. Frankly again, I remain skeptical because the people who are most angered by it, um, are the people who have such a high propensity to vote anyway, right? So the Democratic partisans, the people who are who for whom environmental issues and climate change are really highly salient issues those air people who tend to be voters regardless on dso I don't know that that's going to produce a surge in turn out the other place, a zay said earlier, where you see just really big gaps in concern about, um, the environment and climate change is between young people and older people, right young voters. This is top of the list, right? And I think Jessica said, Well, right that perhaps in this moment it's not top of the list because of the pandemic. But outside of this moment, climate change and environment are huge issues for young people. The Sunrise movement was doing really pretty extraordinary social movement, organizing getting young people to engage in events, getting young people Thio, um, do kind of face to face social network interactions, turning people out. Ah, lot of that has been disrupted, right, Because of restrictions on face to face activity on DSO, we're seeing mobilization of young people on these issues. Whether that translates into a turnout effect, I think, remains an open question because of the barriers with her described already, I would just add one additional group that you know, and Professor Mullin, um knows quite a bit more about this, But But where? Um, there could be some residents and and that is is that there has been college educated, um, republicans and suburbs who have had some concerns about, um, Trump's governance and and while you know, I certainly would never suggested this is decisive. When when I see the conversations. About what? Waas, um you know, key Thio. Um, these Republicans, feeling like the Republican Party has left them that that sometimes the environment and and the political, you know, just just the extent to which, like governance, um, gone off rails is has been part of the conversation. You're absolutely There tends to be a, you know, a pushback on environment. Whenever whichever party is in the White House, you see sort of public opinion reflected in kind of ah, thermostat IQ way right. There tends to be a little bit of a push back where you see sort of declining environmental concern when a Democrat is in the White House and you see rising environmental concern when a Republican is in the white is in the White House, right, because the public is sort of looking for, you know, in Mass, for kind of a moderate take on the environment and and responds to whatever each administration is doing. This administration has gone so far beyond what prior administrations have done both in rhetoric and in action that we're seeing a stronger pushback. Right? And we're seeing, You know, one thing is climate change is sort of a trend that changes over time is the public becomes more aware of this issue and, um, Mawr, perceiving that it has more and more consequence for their own lives. But environment, right? Has been on the radar for 50 years at least. And the spike in environmental concern, um, across public opinion nationwide on both parties is striking. And I think kind of reflects some of some of what we just heard. Sure. Thank you. Jessica Solomon. I'd like Thio come back to you now. You know, I mentioned apathy a little while ago or something. Obviously. That keeps me from the polls. As you've been talking to other students and young people encourage them to vote. What kind of resistance do you hear when somebody is dismissive of voting? What kind of reasons do you hear from people not wanting to vote? Yeah, thank you. So I think a lot of the resistance that we get isn't really that they think voting doesn't matter or that you know that they don't care about the political process. It's much more that they think that the system itself is broken on. They think that, you know, voting doesn't change much in a system that is kind of designed to perpetuate some of the structures and things that they find that you know, just aren't working. And so I think that's been the biggest issue, especially among young people that we've been running up against on. I think that's, you know, certainly not unique to young people. But it's one where, you know, we really don't have the sort of, you know, political and institutional memories that older generations dio. And so we really just know kind of the Obama administration's and the Trump Administration's and so kind of two vastly different organizations. And I think people have become very frustrated and very, you know, in some ways just, you know, not sure exactly where we go from here. And I think, you know, there's a lot of questions raised about the legitimacy of the election, about kind of what happens after November 3rd, and so I think young people are really hearing that, and we don't necessarily have, you know, the 2000 election to kind of look back on and say like, Oh, that's kind of something that we are familiar with And so I think there's a lot of things that are kind of keeping young people from being really fully committed to this process. They may just kind of be voting, and they're doing it because they know they should be doing it. But it's not something they're kind of fully behind, Um, but they're still voting. So we're not really seeing that sort of apathy and just, you know, I don't care. It's either very committed, very interested in this process and really want to make their voice heard. They're voting because they know that it's important, but they're not really behind it or they are kind of very fresh air with this system and don't feel that their vote we'll have the sort of impact that they believe it needs. Sure, absolutely. Thank you very much. Okay, we've got another question that's come through that I'd like to oppose Bond professor leaders. I'll start with you. But I'd like to get everybody's perspective on this. If you have something toe, add on the questions about early voting. You know we're seeing record numbers on DSO. You know there's a temptation because historically Democrats tend to vote earlier in larger numbers. It seems that there is a temptation say Okay, well, if we're having larger numbers of early voting, that means more Democrats coming out. But of course, we've seen record numbers in the last three or four presidential elections of early voting and in 2016 obviously, Republicans to the White House. Is there anything that you can read into the numbers of early voting that we're seeing? Do you think it is driven by people not wanting to vote on the day because of the pandemic? Well, people just being very passionate about the result this year, or is it something else? What do you think it means? If it means anything? I think we have to be very, very cautious in interpreting early voting numbers. We know from the research that a lot of the people who are voting early tend to be people who would have voted on Election Day so that it's it's not necessarily expanding. The electorate is just changing the distribution of when, um, they're turning out, on the other hand, because we are in the midst of a pandemic because there are wild fires and hurricanes Onda, frankly, even just a rainstorm could be the thing that keeps someone from the polls or poll worker shortages that make for long lines, that when you look at the pool of people who are planning to vote on Election Day that it is more likely that a distraction or a barrier might stand in their way. And so, um, it is the case that we you know, we have more information about the likely election outcome as we get these early voting numbers. On the other hand, given the states where we know are you know, most likely to be the tipping points are you know, the fact that Pennsylvania is not going thio have their results in. We just have to be. I think we have to be cautious about making predictions and you know, this. This is the thing that was raised earlier. Just about, um, polling generally is that, um, you know, polls are a powerful tool, but there are powerful tool when you know the population that you are supposed to be sampling from, and we just don't know exactly who's going to show up, particularly in um, today. You know, there are, yes, lots of lots of people who are very passionate, but there are also lots of potential barriers to getting to the polls. So So I I think I would just urge caution and reading too much into early voting numbers. I wanna jump in on a bit of a sidetrack, but it's but it's related to something. Professor delegates just said, which is, You know, a lot of what's enabled the large early voting numbers are these changes in election rules that have happened across the states, Um, toe open mawr early voting centers, um, to allow more early voting and to allow mawr mail voting. And you know, many if not most, of those changes were temporary changes right for this cycle. But we need to have in mind that there is a hurricane bearing down on the Gulf Coast. There are 100,000 people form or in California who are evacuated from their homes, and that's a consequence of climate driven natural disasters that are increasing in frequency and severity over time. And that is part of our present, and it's part of our future and it's going to disrupt voting out into the future. We saw it disrupt voting during Hurricane Sandy. We've seen it disrupt voting during primary events around Katrina around other you know, fire events. Um, and this really. You know, as we come out of 2020 we should be thinking seriously about how to build this flexibility and voting into into our future election processes. Hopefully, in a more you know, reflective kind of comprehensive way and not in the scattershot way that happened. You know, this year around a pandemic. But but we're going to need to build that flexibility into our election process is because part of our future will be natural events disrupting elections at the national level. At the local level. On dso on yeah, e wanted to just add to I think that there's a lot of ways to read those lines, and one of them is, like, you know, tentative excitement around. Turn out Another of them is ah, much longer history, right of barriers to the access of the access to the vote, right? So when we look, for example, at those videos that were all instead have gone viral in places like Georgia. The long lines to wait to vote, where people are waiting 8 11 hours to be able to vote. You know those air about record amounts of turnout, but it's also about disenfranchisement, right? And about creating barriers to be able to access the vote and those voting centers. Adding those new voting centers has certainly been good, but has not been evenly distributed and certainly communities of color disproportionately standing in those lines for 11 11 hours in order to be able to vote. And so I think the question of race and how and this as a kind of part of a long history of the U. S. A election process being limited to communities of color poor communities. Um, that's part of the story as well. I mean, even in places like Florida, where we saw legislation to make it possible for those who had a felony conviction to be able to vote again. But now they have to pay all of the fees associate ID with their incarceration, where their trials, I mean, this is it's its own kind of poll tax, right? And so I think we also have to think about I mean, I'm thinking, of course, about Latino voters. But black and Latino voters are facing these long lines in different ways that other populations are. And so those barriers are not being evenly distributed. And I would just jump in as well, and we will eventually let you get us back on track, Greg. But But I would just add that this is one of the things that historically has really prevented young people as well. I mean, when you consider the fact that in Texas your gun license works as a valid form of voting I D. But a college ID D does not. In Wisconsin, the requirements for a college I D toe work are so significant that only three of the colleges actually apply. And then you still have to show, like a zero balance tuition bill or some other evidence that in fact, you are currently enrolled like these air riel barriers and in one of the key points is just the fact that they are so inconsistent across states. And this has consequences for turnout of different groups in different states and and and so I would just, you know, really endorsing Reiterate, you know, um, Professor Mullins Point that that there needs to be a sustained and national level conversation about ways that voting can be more flexible. And there can be, um, wider access. Yes. Speaking specifically to sort of young people and early voting, I think it's very important to know kind of where these early voting sites are with relationship to college campuses. So Duke does have an early voting site on campus. But we don't have Election Day sites on campus, and the two parts of Duke's campuses have to go to different Election Day sites. And so I think that it's really important to kind of note, you know where that is happening and so looking at across, um, across North Carolina, how different universities are kind of turning out the vote. So our big push has been to early voting, but a lot of campuses may not have those early voting sites on campus or even near campus. And so it's really important to kind of notice. You know where this is and how young people are able to get to the polls because a lot of times they don't have transportation on DSO these polling places that are a five minute drive away could be prohibitive for young people when they wouldn't be prohibited. Prohibited for other people? Sure, absolutely thank you all for for weighing in on that question. That's terrific. Professor Marquez. I'd like to come back to you on something you mentioned a moment ago about the barriers to voting. We see that there are large numbers of Latino voters in some of these states where some of the voter disenfranchisement disenfranchisement eyes the strongest. And yet some of those who are considered to be swing states this year, even if they're not normally. Arizona, Texas, Florida on may be North Carolina. What kind of role do you think that the Latino voters could play in those states come election night? Um, yeah. I mean, I I think it's interesting that Jessica mentioned the 2000 election. I still feel like I PTSD from the from Florida's election performance, and I feel like I'm gonna Florida's is heavy on my mind. E mean the Latino vote in Florida, something like 23% of Florida's electorate. I mean, it's a huge population. It is also a somewhat exceptional about the word I'm looking for but it Z it's a larger Cuban population. It's a larger Puerto Rican population that we might see in places like Texas or California on the Cuban electorate, specifically, is much more conservative. And so Florida is this place where the Latino vote is changing pretty quickly, both with the increase of Puerto Rican voters but also the generational ships that are happening amongst Cuban American voters. Andi is turning increasingly blue. I mean, I think Latinos have driven some of the turn way we think about a state like Virginia, for example. The increase in Latino voters certainly helped turn that state from purple to blue. I think in places like Georgia, um, in North Carolina, where Latinos about 4% of the vote. I think there's a lot of hope that it will be, um, moving those two more winnable states. For Democrats, it is also true that Latinos are, um, incredibly complicated and often unreliable. Unreliable voting block about 25 for Democrats, at least right. About 28% of Latinos voted for Donald Trump, the the highest. I think that a Republican got was George H. W. Bush with 40% so there is a consistent contingency of Hispanic or Latino Republicans. And so, um, the reality is that this it's not entirely clear that they're gonna entirely move us blue or move us purple. The reality is that Latinos are often split, and some of that has to dio with questions about race. Right, there's this emphasis on this is the first election which Latinos are the largest minority voting block. That's a kind of like returning phrase that we see a lot. And the reality is a lot of Latinos are white and a lot of Latinos are black and are actually following voting patterns that look a lot like white people and a lot like black people. And so understanding the kind of complexities within the Latino community is a important, I think, to understand how they will or will not fulfill our, you know, fulfill Democratic or Republican fantasies about what this community might do toe bolster the electorate. Um, it's a pretty split and complicated demographic. I mean, 75% certainly going Thio Hillary Clinton suggest that there is some kind of solid nous there around the Democratic Party, but not nearly a solid as we might think of another demographics? Sure, thank you very much. We've got about 15 minutes left to go here and lots of questions. I'm gonna whiz through as many of them as we can. Professor Mullen, I'd like to come back to you and something you said at the beginning about how voters can make a big difference in states, you know, with issues like fracking. And if they happen to these voters happen to be in particular states that are contested. They could make a big difference. I'm curious. You know, America needs to renew its energy infrastructure on bond. President Trump has kind of bet very heavily on on fossil fuels, even though it seems like, you know, the market may kind of strip of any power to keep that going. But do you think it could make a big difference in certain states where, you know, there are people who rely on these for jobs? Onda, a kind of resistance to moving solar power and other things, even if it's maybe misguided for the future of the country as a whole, could make a difference to this election because people feel like President Trump is gonna protect their jobs, even if ultimately the market might take those jobs anyway. Yeah, it's interesting to watch this play out. I think that they're right. The again that the geographic concentration of these industries in particular states and and the fact that some of those states also are swing states means that we can we end up paying a lot of attention. Teoh, right? These these small populations of marginal voters, um, and and some of those right in western Pennsylvania, in Ohio, in plausibly Texas, um could end up being important votes. Um, and you know, there are communities where a lot of jobs hinge on natural gas and oil. Um, and there are real concerns about what you know, an ambitious energy transformation might mean for their local economy and for their economic security. Eso So those are votes that, you know, President Trump would like to think he has locked up, but it's really interesting to see that, um, that's not so certain this year. Um, and Biden seems tohave some legs in those communities. He's spent enormous amounts of time in those communities, and he's He's not just talking to the suburban professional audiences. He's spending a lot of time talking to folks who work in those industries. Andi, he has union support, right? So he has endorsements from some of the construction labor organizations that actually work in the fracking industry. And that's surprising, right? So So President Trump thinks that that he is winning points when he, um you know, continues to say that Biden will and fracking Um, because of something that Biden did say right. Probably misspoke, but did say, um, but the union leadership at least doesn't seem to be going along with that s so we're gonna have to see right? How that plays out Onda again, this is these air. These were not large numbers of votes, But when we have these state elections, um, that are very close. You know, those could be important votes on the margins. Marvelous. And thank you for ah, terrific answer to a very poorly worded question. I appreciate that. E wanna I wanna tag one thing onto this is that it's not just energy infrastructure that needs revamping, right? So the nation's physical infrastructure, writ large, needs revamping, including roads and including water systems, and that starts to get into environmental justice issues that are very much tied up to a lot of the racial justice issues. Um, and voting rights, justice issues, right? And so that's been a bit of a mobilizing force. Um, thinking about what this energy transformation might do in in communities that have really suffered the consequences of deteriorating water infrastructure and and the physical infrastructure of of the fossil fuel industry. Sure. Absolutely. Thank you. We've had another question come through a professor Villegas. I'll throw this one out to you and and again would be happy for everybody else. Toe weigh in on it. Um, do you have any sense of the issues that are most impacting black voters, especially in North Carolina? What concerns are driving black voters to the polls this year? Eso a point that the in part I just wanted to make and and make earlier, but I think is actually relevant is is that you know, part of the uncertainty about how various voting restrictions have been implemented in in various states. So, for instance, you know, Florida tried thio ban having precincts on college campuses, New Hampshire put in place, Ah, law. That said, if you move into the state and this was targeting out of state college students. You move into the state, it starts o'clock in 60 days. You have to get a driver's license. You know, there there have been a variety of voting restrictions that people, um, you know, think are also targeted to new African Americans. And one of the things that we know is that these type of voting restrictions can in fact actually helped to mobilize people. So, yes, they create barriers. But what we have seen in some of the states where they implemented strict voter I d laws is that that that that also also became a mobilizing force. Now it's unlikely to be sustained election after Election toe have that type of mobilizing force. But when it is viewed that a particular party is trying thio prevent a targeted group from voting, um, that that can can actually be mobilizing. And it's one of the things that I think, um, you know, has been top of the mind in African American communities and in places like Georgia and Texas and and has been in in in North Carolina. And, um, and and so you know, of course, the courts have stepped in um, in North Carolina, but But there, you know, they're the efforts have been there, and and there's some stickiness to, um that. And so I think that has resonated within, um, some communities. Sure, thank you very much. Jessica Sullivan. I would like to come back to you. We've had a follow up question you mentioned about how the people you talk to who are reluctant to vote talk about how the system is broken, doesn't work for them. And people would like to know what what you say to those people when you're trying to sign people up and get them to vote. I think that's a tricky question, because in a lot of ways, as we've seen over the past few years, the system is broken and the system isn't working for everybody. But I think that kind of what we say a lot is that you know, we're not going to be changing the system in the next week or in the next six days before the election. And so this is the system that we're working under, and the only way to kind of have your voice heard and really, you know, have a site in this right now in the next few days is to vote on DSO. The rest can come after that. The rest, you know, can can happen. But that this is one way that is important and one way that will affect your community and really, you know, scaling it down from this large national conversation to something that really is localized. Andi, I think that has been a really effective motivator, especially for young people, because they do care about their communities. And they do want to see, you know, justice and equity in those spaces. And I think framing voting as this community oriented act, rather than trying to kind of enact this sort of systematic change that I think a lot of young people want has been a more effective way of doing that. Okay, sure. Thank you very much. We are moving towards the last few minutes here. If anybody has some final questions to get in, you can submit those Why the q and a window. Or you can raise your hand and zoom so that we can a mute you and you can ask your question that way, if you're joining by phone, you can hit star nine to amuse yourself or toe raise your hands. Um, which I neglected to mention earlier. Okay, we are, As I said, we're getting towards the end here, but we're gonna try and run through another couple of questions. Um, one of a kind of general question we've had here a few times, which I could, I guess, ask each of you is what in particular you will be paying attention to on election night? Is it a particular state that you're looking at because of your particular areas of expertise? Are there certain turnout numbers that you're gonna be looking at? Like what, what? On election night, where is your attention gonna be focused on bond? Professor? Delegates will start with you. Um, yeah, I mean that ZA Good question. I dio I do think that there are a handful of states that I am anxious to see North Carolina, Um, being one of them, Um and, um, but I am also prepared to go to bed early and, um, not know the answer. Andi and I want to emphasize it. Not knowing the answer is not a reflection of some failure of the system that is built in and it is built in, particularly in the cycle, in part because of the pandemic. And so I think that that, you know, preparing people for the potential. I mean, when I when I look at the polls and the fundamentals and the thing that I tell people, is that on the one hand, um, it's entirely possible that we're going toe Look at a shellacking, Andi, that it could be decided on election night a same time. There is absolutely a path where UM Trump can can win and things look very close in a lot of critical states. And both of those things where possible. There is so much uncertainty over what the electorate is going toe toe look like. Who's going to show up that that both of those are in the realm of possibility? And on DSO I'm just trying to temper expectations. You're absolutely Professor Marquez. Where were your attention be focused on election night? I'm excited to see what happens in the South. I mean, there's just so I mean, especially in these senatorial Senate races. There's just so many, um, Rafael Warnock in Georgia, Jaime Harrison and South Carolina e mean even here in North. I mean, I just think that there's so many exciting Senate races that are happening that I think could really, um, transformed the way things air going right now on Din General. Just sort of seeing what happens with the South. I think that there's like a purple ing thing that's happening in a lot of these states. That feels really interesting and exciting to me. And I just want to see sort of how that all unfolds at the state level. Um, yeah, so I'll keep my there. I'm always, I think, as we all are, anxiously watching Florida and breathing deeply but also planning to go to sleep early and being comfortable with that and accepting that we won't see all of the results. And that's fine. And ultimately, probably a good thing. And in the service of democracy, sure, absolutely. Jessica Sullivan as a young voter, Where will your attention be focused on election night? Yeah, so I definitely agree with what's already been said, um, kind of. As a North Carolina and native, I'm really excited to see what's happening here on really all levels and then across the South to especially the South Carolina Senate race in Georgia in Florida. I think it will be really exciting and really interesting to see what happens. Um, but I completely agree to that. You know, I probably won't be turning in early. I'll probably be kind of staying up worrying about it, but trying to realize and tryingto make sure that other people realize that we're not going to know everything on election night. Absolutely. And Professor Mullen, what signs will you be looking for on election night? I'll echo the interest in the Senate for sort of environmental change. And, um, you know, the possibility of of kind of moving forward on climate change, the possibility of, you know, making important changes to some of what the Trump Administration has done on the environment. Ah, lot of that depends on what the Senate looks like, Um, in January and so I'll be paying close attention to those close Senate races. The other thing I'll be looking at is kind of how these results, um, influence all of these voting rights cases right that are underway. Um, we have so many cases already, there will be even mawr after the election and some of those cases could have really important consequences. Um, going out into the future for equity of access to the polls. Um, and I'm really interested to see how many of those cases become consequential and even have decisions, right. If the state margins are so huge in the states where those cases are, do we not even really see those cases play out? Or do we still get the precedent setting decisions that might have have consequences moving forward for people's fundamental right to vote separate from how they might affect some outcomes? So that's that's another piece of this that I'll be looking at because that's not just 2020. Um, that's out into the future. Sure, absolutely, Thank you very much. Thank you. Talk about Panelists for those comprehensive answers. I think we will leave it there. Thank you, everyone for joining us. Thanks once again to our Panelists. Sunshine Hill, August 2. Senior Marquez, Meghan Mullen and Jessica Sullen Sullivan for Sharing Your Perspectives. Next week's briefing takes place at noon the day after the election. 12 15 actually, the day after the election, when we will have Duke scholars with us to discuss the status of the election results at that moment. If you'd like to be on the list for that or future briefings, please email news at duke dot e d u to let us know. In the meantime, I think what we've learned today is breathe deep on, go to bed early. I plan to follow that advice. Eso In the meantime, please stay well, Be sure to vote. Wear a mask. Thank you, Aunt. Have a great day. Thank you so much.