Political News

Did Pete Buttigieg call his Iowa shot?

It seemed, at the time, like a very bold statement to make.

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Analysis by Chris Cillizza
, CNN Editor-at-large
CNN — It seemed, at the time, like a very bold statement to make.

With 0% of Iowa precincts reporting their results, Buttigieg stood in front of his supporters and said this:

"What a night. Because tonight, an improbable hope became an undeniable reality. ... So we don't know all the results, but we know by the time, it's all said and done, Iowa you have shocked the nation. Because by all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious."

Which, well, bold! Especially for a former small(ish) town mayor running against a two-term vice president and four sitting senators.

But when the Iowa Democratic Party -- finally -- released the first tranche of voters (62% of all results from all 99 counties in the state) on Tuesday afternoon, it was Buttigieg on top holding a narrow lead in state delegates over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. (Note: With that same 62%, Sanders was leading the popular vote by more than 1,000; the winner, however, is determined by state delegate apportioning.)

To be clear: There are still 38% of precincts that still have not reported as of this moment. Things can change! They often do! And given the incompetence of the Iowa Democratic Party on display over the past 24 hours, it's not unreasonable to be even more guarded in making predictions about what things will look like when 100% of precincts report.

What we can say without question, however: Buttigieg had a very good night. He needed it -- to prove that a 30-something mayor could compete with and win over more established political brands. And he got it.

Buttigieg obviously would have liked to have these results go public Monday night rather than Tuesday afternoon. And he will want to win the state delegate count when 100% of the votes are counted rather than being ahead with 62% reporting.

But for a guy who on Tuesday morning looked like he got out over his skis in making a big prediction, Buttigieg by Tuesday night showed he could back that talk up.

The Point: Buttigieg is the story out of Iowa (at least as of right now). And that's a very big deal in the overall re-ordering of the top tier of the Democratic race.

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