Cuomo’s Lead Over Nixon Slightly Narrows in 2018 Election Poll

ALBANY, N.Y. — Less than a month into her campaign, Cynthia Nixon has shaved 16 percentage points from what is still a significant poll lead held by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, who is suffering from some of the lowest favorability ratings of his more than seven years in office, according to a new survey.

In a head-to-head matchup with Nixon, an educational activist and actress making her first run for public office, Cuomo still leads, 58 percent to 27 percent. But that margin, according to Siena College, is substantially less than one found in a similar poll by the school in mid-March, before Nixon declared her candidacy, when Cuomo led her by 47 points.

It also comes at a time when Cuomo, a second-term Democrat who has been mentioned as a possible presidential contender, is being seen favorably by less than a majority: 49 percent. The last time the governor had such a low rating in a Siena poll was in the summer of 2015.

Nixon’s campaign, which has already garnered ample news coverage with calls for legalizing marijuana and tough attacks on Cuomo, got a major boost on Saturday when she received the endorsement of the Working Families Party, a small but influential progressive group.

A Marist College poll last week had better news for the governor, showing him with a 47-point lead over Nixon, though the margin narrowed when pollsters asked those who were “highly enthusiastic” to participate in a Democratic primary, which typically draws the most ardent and energized voters.

The governor could take reassurance in other details of the Siena poll, including a 3-1 lead in New York City — where the largest batch of Democratic primary voters reside — and a 30-point lead in New York City’s suburbs. He does better with female voters than male, and best among self-described moderates.

But the race is much closer upstate — with the governor leading 48-37 — despite the governor’s repeated assertions that he has done more than any other governor to revive the economy. Nixon also does well against Cuomo with younger voters, aged 18 to 34, trailing the incumbent by 14 points in that demographic.

The poll also showed that Cuomo would easily defeat two Republican candidates — Sen. John DeFrancisco and Marc Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive — by margins similar to what he currently holds over Nixon. The two Republicans, neither of whom are well known, are in a dead heat among voters, with each receiving 18 percent.

The poll, conducted from April 8-12, surveyed 692 registered voters in New York state, and it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.