Researchers: NC could have 4 times number of reported coronavirus infections

THAT'S THE NUMBER THAT WE HAVE

SEEN DROP.

HOWEVER IF THE DEATH HAS HIT

YOUR FAMILY IT'S A DEVASTATING

NEWS NO MATTER WHAT THE NUMBER.

WE ARE JOINED BY TWO OF THE

LEAD RESEARCHERS THAT ARE

FORECASTING THE RATE OF WHICH

CORONAVIRUS MOVES THROUGH THE

STATE.

DR. PAUL IS A PROFESSOR AT THE

UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA,

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> WERE NOT GOING TO OVERWHELM

VIEWERS WITH ALL OF THE

INFORMATION IN YOUR REPORT.

YOU ESTIMATE IN YOUR

FORECASTING MODELS THAT MORE

THAN 500,000 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN

AFFECTED STATEWIDE.

5% OF THE STATES POPULATION.

WHAT WE'VE BEEN REPORTING, THE

GOVERNOR AND DR. COHEN TALKS

ABOUT OUR LAB CONFIRMED CASES

WHICH ARE MUCH LOWER NUMBERS.

HOW DO WE FIND A NUMBER THAT IS

THIS HIGH.

TELL ME ABOUT THE CREDIBILITY

OF IT?

WE'VE KNOWN SINCE THE EARLY

STAGES OF THE PANDEMIC THAT

THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT ARE

ASYMPTOMATIC.

THAT HAVE BEEN INFECTED.

PEOPLE THAT ARE SLIGHTLY

SYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE AND THE

PEOPLE WHO DEVELOP SOLON COVID-

19.

AS WE'VE STUDIED THE VIRUS AS

IT MOVES THROUGH THE POPULATION

WE'VE FIGURED OUT THE LAB

CONFIRMED CASES ARE A SMALL

PORTION OF THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF

PEOPLE THAT HAVE BEEN INFECTED.

WHEN I WAS SETTING UP THIS

WEBSITE AND THE MODEL TO FEED

IT DATA INTO.

THAT WAS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I

WAS AFTER.

I JUST LET THE DATA DRIVES WHAT

HAPPENED.

THE NUMBERS COME OUT VERY MORE

TO WHAT WE FIND IN OTHER

STUDIES.

THERE WAS A RECENT NEW YORK

TIMES ARTICLE THAT SAID THE

TRUE CASES COULD BE 10 TIMES

MORE.

WHAT WE SEE NOW IS 1-4 CASES.

I WANT PEOPLE TO UNDERSTAND THE

MAGNITUDE OF HOW MANY PEOPLE

HAVE BEEN INFECTED WITH THE

VIRUS SO FAR

>> IF WE HAVE A HALF-MILLION

PEOPLE THAT HAVE BEEN INFECTED

AND THE HOSPITALIZATION NUMBERS

HAVE NOT BEEN RELATIVELY HIGHER

THAN WHAT THEY ARE NOW.

DOES THAT SHOW THAT WE SHOULD

NOT BE AS CONCERNED AS WE HAVE

BEEN ABOUT HOSPITALIZATIONS AND

THE SERIOUSNESS ?

>> NOT AT ALL.

WE HAVE GOOD ESTIMATES ON THE

TRUE FATALITY RATE OF THIS

DISEASE.

IN THOSE ESTIMATES INDICATE

THAT THIS DISEASE IS 5-10 TIMES

MORE FATAL THAN REGULAR

INFLUENZA.

IN ADDITION TO THAT.

NO ONE IN THE POPULATION HAD

IMMUNITY BEFORE IT CAME AROUND.

AND THAT MADE IT VERY DIFFERENT

FROM INFLUENZA AS WELL.

THERE IS A VACCINE.

PEOPLE MAY HAVE IMMUNITY.

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY A

SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.

IF THE U.S. DOES NOT CONTROL

THIS.

WE COULD HAVE MILLIONS OF

DEATHS.

BUT THE TERM HERD IMMUNITY HAS

BEEN THROWN AROUND BY SOME

PEOPLE, INCLUDING CHIEF

EXECUTIVES OF OTHER STATES.

CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHAT PEOPLE ARE

TALKING ABOUT?

>> HERD IMMUNITY IS REALLY

IMPORTANT IN A PANDEMIC.

WHAT IT MEANS IS THAT THE VIRUS

HAS GOTTEN TO THE POINT WHERE

THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH AGENTS IN

THE HERDS THAT IT CAN CONTINUE

TO GROW.

LIKE A MOSQUITO INFECTING COWS,

BY THE TIME THAT ENOUGH COWS

ARE IMMUNE.

THE VIRUS THAT THAT MOSQUITO

HAS WILL HAVE TO SLOW DOWN IN

THAT POPULATION.

THAT'S 50 OR 60%.

THAT'S 5 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE

STATE.

WERE ONLY AT 5%.

BEFORE THE VACCINE ARRIVES IT'S

NOT HERE IN TIME, YOU COULD GET

UP TO 80% OF THE POPULATION

CORONAVIRUS RESEARCH STATEWIDE.

BEFORE THE BREAK WE WERE

TALKING ABOUT THE NUMBERS THAT

WE SHOULD BE KEEPING AN EYE ON.

LET'S TALK ABOUT POLICY WHAT

HAS BEEN DONE AND WHAT HAS NOT

BEEN DONE.

ARE WE DOING ALL WE CAN TO

PREVENT THIS FROM SPREADING?

TELL US THE GOOD NEWS FROM YOUR

FINDINGS?

BUT THERE'S DEFINITELY GOOD

NEWS.

WHEN I STARTED PUTTING TOGETHER

THE MODEL AND FIGURING OUT WHAT

HAPPENED IN NORTH CAROLINA.

WE SAW SOME CHANGES IN

TRANSMISSION AS TIME WENT ON.

IT CORRESPONDS QUITE WELL WITH

WHEN WE WENT INTO THE STAY AT

HOME ORDER.

IT REALLY SLOWED THE

TRANSMISSION.

THERE WAS AN UPTICK WHEN WE

WENT INTO PHASE 1, THERE WAS

ANOTHER INCREASE IN PHASE 2.

SINCE THEN IN THE LAST 14 DAYS

THINGS HAVE STARTED TO LEVEL

OFF A LITTLE BIT.

I WOULD SAY THE GOOD NEWS IS

THAT IT LOOKS LIKE SOCIAL

DISTANCING IS WORKING, AND

HAVING A POSITIVE EFFECT.

IF WE CONTINUE WITH HOW

TRANSMISSION IS RIGHT NOW.

I DO NOT THINK WE WILL END UP

OVERWHELMING THE HEALTH CARE

SYSTEM.

THAT IS A BIG IF IF WE CAN

CONTINUE TO SOCIAL DISTANCE.

I DO THINK THAT THE ORDER TO

WEAR A MASK IN PUBLIC SPACES

WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE

TRANSMISSION DOWN.

>> FROM HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.

DR. SWAN YOU WORKED AT THE

NATIONAL LEVEL WITH H1 AND ONE.

YOUR REACTION WITH HOW WE'VE

HANDLED THINGS AT THE STATE

LEVEL COMPARED TO THE FEDERAL

LEVEL?

>> IF YOU LOOK AT NORTH

CAROLINA COMPARED TO A LOT OF

OTHER STATES THAT STARTED AT A

SIMILAR TIME WITH COVID CASES ,

YOU CAN SEE THAT OUR DECISION-

MAKERS IN NORTH CAROLINA MADE A

LOT OF GOOD DECISIONS.

CLOSING EARLY AND PUTTING IN

PLACE A SHELTER-IN-PLACE WITH

EXTENSIVE RESTRICTIONS.

UNIVERSITIES ACTIVE FAST TO

MAKE SURE THAT STUDENTS COMING

BACK FROM SPRING BREAK WOULD

NOT BRING THAT DISEASE BACK.

AND THE DECISION TO DELAY PHASE

3 WHEN CASES WERE INCREASING

WAS IMPORTANT.

AND THE RECENT ORDER FOR FACE

COVERINGS IS REALLY IMPORTANT.

BECAUSE THERE IS GROWING

EVIDENCE THAT THAT IS ONE OF

THE KEY THINGS THAT HELPS SLOW

THE DISEASE TRANSMISSION.

IF WE CAN DO THAT AND AVOID

BREATHING EACH OTHER'S AIR.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT

LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CASES.

>> ONE WORD ANSWER.

IF YOU WERE THE GOVERNOR WOULD

YOU REOPEN SCHOOLS ON THE

CURRENT DATE IN AUGUST THAT

SCHOOLS WANT TO REOPEN.

YES OR NO?

>> YES ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

CERTAINLY.

>> YES ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS BUT

MAYBE NOT UNIVERSITIES OR HIGH

SCHOOLS

>> WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.