Report: UNC-Chapel Hill estimates at most 1,650 new infections each day when classes resume

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is expecting to see anywhere between 850 and 1,650 new infections each day when students return to campus, according to report.

Posted 1:43 a.m. Jan 8, 2022 — Updated 1:43 a.m. Jan 8, 2022

Maggie Brown

, WRAL multiplatform producer

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is expecting to see anywhere between 850 and 1,650 new infections each day when students return to campus, according to report.

The report, which was initially leaked to NC Policy Watch, outlines projections of how many student coronavirus cases the university is expecting when school starts back on Monday.

The university projects that infections will peak anywhere between 14 to 25 days after the first day of classes, the report says.

"Over the first 30 days, we project 13,800 to 22,270 infections among students," according to the report.

The estimations were outlined in a report authored by researchers with UNC's department of epidemiology and Paul Delmater, an expert in geographic aspects of health outcomes.

Local universities prepare ahead of expected omicron surge

Young adults ages 18 to 24 have the highest number of new cases per population, state data shows. Across North Carolina there are 1,302 cases per 100,000 residents in that age group.

Vaccination rates among young adults have lagged behind other age groups. As of Friday, only 49% of North Carolinians ages 18 to 24 are fully vaccinated against the virus. Vaccinations among that age group have mostly slowed to a halt, according to data from the state Department of Health and Human Services.

The report does not address the number of students who could are estimated to become seriously ill from the virus and does not say how many students are unvaccinated. UNC also has shutdown its coronavirus dashboard page for the time being.

NC continues to shatter records in new daily COVID-19 cases; positivity rate still above 31%

6% of all North Carolinians admitted to the hospital on Friday with COVID-19 were among young adults ages 20 to 29. That's around 27 people.

UNC is not requiring vaccinations or boosters for the spring semester but the university is requiring that all students be tested for COVID-19 before returning to campus after winter break.

UNC's current testing protocols will likely only pick up 40% to 50% of cases among students returning to campus Monday, the researchers project.

The report clearly states that "these planning scenarios are meant to provide rough estimates for planning purposes, and are nor formal forecasts."

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