NC's virus trend line changed dramatically, quickly

A month ago, on July 15, only 14 North Carolina counties were considered high coronavirus transmission areas. Now, almost the whole state is.

Posted 11:50 p.m. Aug 16, 2021 — Updated 12:19 p.m. Aug 17, 2021

Ali Ingersoll

, WRAL investigative data journalist

RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina reported another 15,000 coronavirus infections in the past three days, pushing the daily average to more than 5,000 new cases a day over the last week.

The number of new cases each day is similar to what the state saw early February levels, as is the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19. The 2,651 patients reported Monday is the highest since Feb. 3, and about a quarter of the current number is in intensive care.

Ninety-nine of North Carolina's 100 counties are considered high viral transmission areas by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s defined by the CDC as 100 or more cases per 100,000 people or a positivity rate on virus tests of at least 10 percent over a seven-day period.

Only Avery County in the northwestern part of the state isn't in red on a CDC map. It's orange, with substantial viral spread.

The picture has changed significantly and quickly in North Carolina.

A month ago, on July 15, only 14 counties were red. Most of the state had moderate community spread, and a few even were considered to have low viral spread. About two weeks ago, as cases were rebounding to levels not seen in months, about 70 percent of counties were high transmission areas.

Some counties are seeing more than 1,200 cases, including Bladen and Columbus counties in the southeastern part of the state and Cherokee and Yancey out west, according to state Department of Health and Human Services data.

Avery, Camden and Warren counties have some of the lower infection rates, at about 200 cases over the last 14 days. Orange County is the lowest in the Triangle, with 290 cases, while Durham County had just over 400.

Dr. David Wohl, an infectious disease expert at UNC Health, said that the numbers suggest that almost everyone, regardless of vaccination status, should be considered a potential virus carrier. People let down their guard as case numbers subsided in the spring, he said, and as hard as it might be, now is the time for everyone to reconsider traveling or taking part in group activities.

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