Official state case count likely out of line with COVID-19 spread in NC

Although public health officials and doctors have been sounding the alarm about the latest highly-contagious coronavirus subvariant, North Carolina's official case count is not ticking upward as expected, according to data released Wednesday by the state department of Health and Human Services.

In fact, new reported COVID-19 cases are down 2% this week when compared to last week.

Many experts believe this is due to the fact that the state's data is not fully capturing the amount of COVID-19 spreading in the community. The state does not collect data on at-home positive COVID-19 tests, and some people may get a mild COVID-19 infection and never take a test.

"Earlier, in COVID we did a lot more testing in the office," said Shawna Guthrie, medical director at Granville Vance Public Health. "We're doing a lot less testing in the office because of the availability of home tests. And unfortunately, those numbers don't translate over into the state reported data. So there's a lot of people testing positive at home, who aren't really reported in the metrics that we see."

Data tracking the amount of coronavirus particles found in wastewater shows that there is more COVID-19 spreading in the community this week when compared to last week. State data released Wednesday shows there's been a 9% increase this week in the number of people visiting the hospital with COVID-19.

"It does seem that COVID-19 is always a little bit of one step ahead of us, unfortunately. And that's why it's so important for people to get vaccinated to reduce the risk of hospitalization or death," Guthrie said.

BA.5 has already become dominant subvariant in North Carolina, according to the state's data released Wednesday.

Doctors call this variant the most contagious yet, predicting it will continue to bring more cases in the coming days. Testing sites are expected to see a growing demand.

Right now, 18 N.C. counties are considered high risk, including Orange and Durham counties.

The rise in cases comes during a time when many counties are scaling back on testing efforts.

Health experts believe there could be a wave in the fall. Vaccine makers are working on an updated booster to fight against the new strain.