Is herd immunity to COVID-19 impossible?

The first reported death from the omicron variant happened this week – in a man who had previously been infected with COVID-19.

Given that neither vaccination nor previous infection provides guaranteed protection from the virus, the hope of herd immunity may not be something we can count on.

So will we ever reach a point where we can live with COVID?

UNC Infectious Disease Expert Dr. David Wohl says we cannot rely on herd immunity, which is when enough people in a population are immune to a disease that those who aren’t immune don’t have to worry too much about it.

Wohl believes the new omicron variant makes it clear that herd immunity isn't going to work for COVID any more than it works for the common cold, which is also a coronavirus that keeps mutating.

However, the reason most people don't end up in the ICU from a common cold is that we've been repeatedly exposed to it.

"Having had COVID before doesn't seem to offer very much protection against omicron," said Wolh. "Your risk is really high of getting sick, if you have had COVID before, but you get omicron."

Wohl says even though vaccinated people can also catch omicron – and many likely will – they’re far less likely to become seriously ill from it – and it could help protect us from the next variant.

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He compared it to other coronaviruses that cause the common colds we've all been exposed to all our lives.

"We develop immunity. Doesn't mean we don't get infected, doesn't mean we don't catch a cold. But it only is a cold," he said.

Can COVID-19 eventually be more like the common cold?

"I think it can. But right now, there's just so many people who can catch this and end up in an ICU," said Wohl.

The key to eventually living with COVID, Wohl says, is getting more people vaccinated and boosted – probably with annual variations like the flu shot, to keep it from overwhelming our health care system.

"The large pool of people here in the United States that are not vaccinated is the ticking time bomb that really just keeps exploding on us," he said. "There's such a large number of unvaccinated people that even a small fraction of them who get really, really sick is a large number."

Wohl also had some advice for people who haven't been vaccinated because they've had COVID already: A prior COVID infection will not keep you safe from omicron. Getting the vaccine will give you much stronger protection.