Cooper the 'Jobs Governor'? Depends on how you count

By at least a few measures, Cooper's first-year job benchmarks are close to those notched in 2013 by his Republican predecessor, former Gov. Pat McCrory – who took the helm of the state in a year when the economy was still recovering from the recession.

Citing figures from the state Department of Commerce, the Governor's Office says the state under Cooper announced 21,054 new jobs in 2017. Commerce spokesman David Rhoades says that number includes any project where state resources "are engaged by a company during the recruitment or expansion process."

The total under Cooper is the largest in more than a decade and tops the 18,297 jobs announced under McCrory's first year.

"More jobs were announced in 2017 than any year since 2006 – many of which would not have come here without the steps Governor Cooper took to repair our reputation and create a welcoming business-friendly climate," Cooper spokesman Ford Porter said in a statement. "Creating good-paying jobs in communities across the state will continue to be Governor Cooper’s top priority."

Yet, in the most high-profile job announcements – projects where state officials use millions in taxpayer money to entice companies to expand or relocate operations – Cooper and McCrory are essentially neck and neck. Cooper announced about 12,600 jobs through the Job Development Investment Grant and the One North Carolina Fund incentive programs. McCrory counted about 12,400. During both governors' first years, the state committed similar amounts – more than $180 million – to companies in exchange for that job growth.

But actual employment growth under each of the governor's first years is also almost exactly the same – just above 1 percent.

As much as governors would like to claim responsibility for growth, economists say very little of it can be traced directly to the actions of a state's chief executive.

"I think every governor wants to be called a 'jobs governor,'" North Carolina State University economist Mike Walden said. "But whether they are is largely out of their control."

That job growth in 2013 and 2017 aligned so closely was something of a surprise to Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner, who tracks regional economic trends in the U.S. He expected 2017 gains in employment to outpace McCrory's first year, when the state was still digging out from the recession.

"In 2013, North Carolina was in a dark place," Vitner said. "We were lagging most of the country."

The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics hasn't released state-level job data for December 2017 yet. But from January to November, North Carolina's economy added about 64,500 workers, compared with 58,600 during the same period in 2013 under McCrory. As a percentage however, the job growth for both governors sat at 1.4 percent.

Year 1 in the books for Cooper with mixed results

"It seems to me, when I look across the state, that growth is strengthening and broadening," he said.

The parallel to 2013 may weaken Cooper's claims to be a transformative "jobs governor."

Walden said there is evidence to suggest that cuts in corporate tax rates are linked to economic growth. When he examines post-recession economic data, the period from 2014 on shows a clear bump from the years before. One argument, he said, is that Republican tax changes that went into effect after 2013 worked.

"The contrary argument is that this growth would have occurred regardless of the tax rates cut because it was just time," Walden said.

Given the trauma of the Great Recession, Walden said, it took a while for consumers to start spending again. When they finally did, that spending had a big impact on the economy of a state that depends far more on manufacturing than the rest of the country.

That broader economic buoying effect applies as much to claims of tax reform as it does to "jobs governors": It's always easier to boost hiring and recruit companies when the economy is doing well, Walden said.

"We always have to overlay this with where we are in the economic cycle," Walden said.

But from his office in Charlotte 10 miles from the state border, Vitner said he frequently saw South Carolina "eating our lunch" and outmaneuvering North Carolina on the economy using its more appealing tax structure. In response, he said Republican tax changes leveled the playing field and contributed to a perception of North Carolina as a pro-business state.

"I think the tax reforms were incredibly meaningful for North Carolina," Vitner said. "We had fallen behind our competitors."

Both economists point out that North Carolina governors aren't completely helpless when it comes to impacting state economies.

"I don't know that a governor can have any short-run impact on job growth," Walden said. "What they can do is support long-term policies, which unfortunately for them kick in after they're gone."

He said officials in the Department of Commerce, along with the public-private Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina, also work hard to sell the state to companies looking to grow.

"That should not go overlooked," Walden said.

Whether they're Republican or Democrat, Vitner said, every governor is active in advocating for industries that would expand or relocate here – and that includes Cooper.

"The governor's not just sitting back and riding on the coattails of the previous administrations," Vitner said. "He's engaged in economic development efforts. That's important."

In the end, Vitner said his philosophy is not to fault executive agencies for claiming victory amid good news.

"I've always believed that the governor or the president deserves credit for anything that goes right, because we're going to assign them the blame when everything goes wrong," he said.