Congressman Has Thoughts on Whether Colleague Can Be Re-Elected While Indicted

Michael Grimm has some tough truth for Rep. Chris Collins, R-N.Y., who was indicted Wednesday on insider trading charges: It might seem bad now, and it won’t get better anytime soon.

“He’s going to have a really, really difficult emotional time,” said Grimm, also R-N.Y. “And whether he knows it or not, a lot of Washington is going to look at him as a pariah.”

Grimm would know. He, too, was indicted while serving in Congress. He, like Collins, professed his innocence. And he, like Collins, ran for re-election anyway. And won.

The brotherhood of members of Congress who have won re-election while under indictment is exceedingly small and its most recent, and vocal, inductee is Grimm — who carried his Staten Island seat back in 2012 despite the weight of a 20-count indictment on his shoulders.

Grimm never did make that next term. He pleaded guilty to tax evasion and instead went to prison. But he said his case could provide a road map of sorts for Collins: Dig in, hire good lawyers (read: expensive), expect to be pummeled in the press and find something, anything else to run on and talk about.

“He’s going to have to swallow every bit of it. And smile,” Grimm said. “He should go right back to his job and remain professional.”

Which can be hard, especially when nearly every shouted question begins with indictment and ends with allegations. Grimm warned Collins that his old friends and allies — he was the first member of Congress to endorse Donald Trump in 2016 — will now give him the cold shoulder. The Capitol corridors will suddenly empty in his pathway.

“Washington, as long as you’re riding high, they want to be your friend,” Grimm said. “And when you’re not, they don’t want to be anywhere near you.” He said he had taken to heart the old saw of the only true friend in Washington is a dog, adopting one early in his first term.

The dog’s name is Sebastian. “Still part of the family,” Grimm said.

When Collins gets back to Washington, there will be a stern sit-down with the Republican leadership, Grimm said, but he advised Collins to not be overly concerned. He said that Speaker Paul Ryan, who already stripped Collins of his most plum committee assignment, has little more leverage to employ.

“There’s really no adverse actions they can take against him,” Grimm said. As long Collins remains in Congress he still can vote on the floor.

There are some other, rare precedents to winning under indictment: The former Rep. Floyd H. Flake of New York was indicted in 1990 and then won re-election (the charges were later dropped), and in 1978, Rep. Daniel J. Flood of Pennsylvania won re-election only weeks after an indictment (he was later convicted and resigned).

That same year, Rep. Charles C. Diggs of Michigan won re-election weeks after he was convicted and awaiting sentencing (he eventually resigned and went to prison).

Others have beaten back charges and sought to remain in office, such as Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, who had a mistrial last year and is up for re-election in November. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas was indicted, then acquitted, ahead of her 1994 Senate re-election. She served three more terms.

For Collins, the real challenge is that indicted congressmen cannot talk about their cases back home without jeopardizing a future trial, Grimm said. So all the explaining to his constituents will be by his opponents. “The DCCC will make sure that’s all they see from now until Election Day,” Grimm said, referring to the campaign arm of House Democrats. “I can’t blame them.”

Collins has one advantage: He’s running in the most ruby-red district in New York, an often sparsely populated expanse between Buffalo and Rochester that gave Trump nearly 60 percent of the vote in 2016. It was the president’s strongest showing in the state.

So Grimm recommended the same strategy he deployed in his failed comeback bid earlier this year: Trump, Trump, Trump and more Trump.

“If I were him, I would double down on the president needing us,” Grimm said, warning of impeachment if Democrats win the House. Grimm made plain he is not only rooting for Collins but mistrustful of the government’s case, even as former prosecutors have said the insider trading timeline is especially damning. “I take the man at his word,” Grimm said.

“These are allegations that ruin careers and ruin people’s lives and until it has happened to you it’s very hard not to condemn someone off initial allegations because that’s all you see,” he said.

Grimm doesn’t know what will ultimately happen to Collins in the courts. But he did offer a November prediction: “I think he gets through the midterms.”