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Chance for snow on Christmas is low, NOAA says

The chance for a white Christmas in North Carolina is low, according to a new report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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From Luke Reynolds, @eculuke100
RALEIGH, N.C. — The chance for a white Christmas in North Carolina is low, according to a report released Friday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration .

Accuweather predicts that Dec. 25 in the Triangle will feature temperatures in the mid-50s, but they could drop to the upper-30s.

This isn't news for people who live in central North Carolina. Historically, the chance for snow on Christmas in the Triangle has been low. The record Christmas snow was 0.4” at RDU in 2010 and 1947.

NOAA uses 30-year historical data to make their snow predictions for December. This year, NOAA says the effects of climate change are visible in their predictions cross the country.

"More areas experience decreases in their chances of a white Christmas than increases," the report says.

Not all regions in the country are seeing a decrease in their chance for snow, according to Accuweather. Chances have increased in parts of North Dakota, New York and Alaska.

NOAA uses 30-year historical data to determine snow chances.

States in the West Coast, Gulf Coast and deep South have less than a 10% chance of seeing at least an inch of snow on Christmas. Even for areas with frequent below-freezing temperatures, NOAA says temperatures are warming. The chance for snow in Boston, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. has fallen slightly.

In North Carolina, the best chance of snow on Christmas day is near the North Carolina-Tennessee border. Asheville has a 43% chance of seeing at least an inch of snow and Boone has a 16% chance.

The best places to see snow on Christmas in on the East Coast are Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York and the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

NOAA's predictions are based on probability and could change if weather conditions change next week.

Snow is still possible this winter, according to the WRAL Severe Weather Center's winter outlook.

This year we are in a La Niña weather pattern. Typically during a La Niña year, temperatures trend below normal. But in the most recent nine La Niña years, all but one featured above-normal winter temperatures in North Carolina.

The average snow over the past 20 and 10 years at Raleigh-Durham International Airport

For this year, WRAL meteorologists are predicting 2 to 5 inches of snow.

Last year, WRAL meteorologists predicted 3 to 5 inches of snow, which would be short of the climatological normal of 6.8 inches. But, the prediction was a bit too optimistic, and central North Carolina only received a measly 1.2 inches of snow.

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