Triangle and National Market Update...
Posted October 22, 2008 2:57 p.m. EDT
Updated October 22, 2008 3:03 p.m. EDT
According to recent estimates, the total number of job losses here in the US has exceeded 900,000 since January, 2008. This is a staggering figure. Many of these jobs have been lost in the financial services sector, and of course the housing sector as well. The domino impact that these job losses have had regarding our industry is so widespread – that we’re truly looking at an economic systemic risk downturn as a result of this… not to mention the recessionary impact that has been dragging the economy in recent months as well. A perfect storm of financial hurricanes if you will…
An additional stimulus package? Continued cuts in interest rates? Prolonged periods of an economic downturn? These are all things mentioned by Chairman Bernanke recently as he continues to find ways to help thaw the credit freeze and hopefully return some sense of normalcy to the markets.
A few interesting questions to ponder from the recent market turmoil are that given all of the Fed’s intervention, what type of trickledown impact are we really seeing here in our local housing markets? How is the Triangle region really doing in comparison to the rest of the country, and how quickly do we feel that improvement will be upon us in the coming weeks and months – both in terms of new jobs and a revival of housing as well. Time will tell on all three fronts, but given our stronger financial infrastructure compared with the rest of the country, I believe we’ll be on the leading edge of the recovery timeline.
To me the consumer and industry confidence play is still one of the most – if not THE most important factor which needs to return to the psyche of consumers and businesses alike acting as a true catalyst for the return to normalcy of housing and business here in the triangle and across the US.
So with all of this doom and gloom surrounding us these days, what do we have to look forward to in the coming weeks and months? First of all let’s look at the positives… We still have a very strong interest rate market for those who are considering purchasing a new or existing home. The supply of new and existing inventory is good so you’re likely to find something that fits both your style and your budget. Jobs and businesses are still being created here in the triangle – unlike many other areas of the country. And finally, the long term formulas for success here in NC and the Triangle are evident in that given the strong University infrastructure, diversified business climate and continued perceived strong housing values, we should continue to be a destination for many Americans and others for years to come. The negatives are that we’re likely to continue to see and feel pain from both domestic and foreign economic policies (i.e. Global impact) for some time. So hang in there consumers and housing mavens alike… the tide will turn.
Jeremy M. Salemson
Corporate Investors Mortgage Group, Inc.