WRAL SmartShopper

WRAL SmartShopper

Black Friday Predictions 2015

Posted October 5, 2015 4:44 p.m. EDT
Updated October 5, 2015 6:23 p.m. EDT

Are you wondering what the best deals for Black Friday are going to be this year? Read on for a list of price predictions including TV's, tablets, laptops, smartphones, video games and more!

In order to come up with the numbers, BestBlackFriday.com went through over 150 ads and thousands of sale prices from last year, reviewed their 2014 Black Friday recap, researched prices from Amazon Prime Day 2015 and similar sales and came up with the following Black Friday predictions for 2015. These are just some of the highlights. You can read the full article at BestBlackFriday.com.

It will be interesting to see if online deals will be good enough to generate 33% growth as predicted below. I know that I would rather shop online than fight the Black Friday crowds!

Be warned: Black Friday appears to be starting November 1st this year on Amazon.com. They are rolling out a "Countdown to Black Friday" sale on 11/1 turning the month into "Black November," as Phil, from BestBlackFriday.com. writes.

2015 Black Friday Predictions



Spending/Growth

Thanksgiving Total Sales: $3.79 Billion (Up 18.8% from 2014)

Black Friday Total Sales: $8.8 Billion (Down 3.29% from 2014)

Combined Total Sales: $12.59 Billion (Up 2.44%)

Black Friday Online Only Sales: $1.85 Billion (Up 22.92% from 2014)

Thanksgiving Online Only Sales: $1.5 Billion (Up 48.66% from 2014)

Combined Online Only Sales: $3.35 Billion (Up 33.25%)


HDTV's:


32" units start at $70.
40" units start at $110.
50" units start at $175.



Tablets:


iPad Air 2 for $375 (save $125).
iPad Mini 4 (Just Released) for $325 (save $75).
Amazon Fire HD 6 for $60.
Samsung Galaxy Tabs start at $90 with an average price of $250.


Laptops:

Start at $95
Average Price: $300
MacBook Airs start at $769
MacBook Pros start at $849


Smartphones:


iPhone 6s for $99 w/2-year contract
iPhone 6s Plus for $274 w/2-year contract.
iPhone 6 for $79 w/2-year contract with a possible gift card to net a price of $0.
Also, plenty of Android phones starting at $0 w/2-year contract.

While 2-year contracts are being phased out, many people will still be eligible. People that aren't will have to pay unsubsidized prices, which have been rare during Black Friday previously, but are expected to be much more common this year.


Video Games:

Xbox One bundles start at $299.99 with an average price of $374.99.
PlayStation 4 bundles start at $299.99 with an average price of $349.99.
Some of these bundles will include store gift cards of around $50.


Apple:

The Apple Store will once again offer no direct discounts. They will, however, bundle gift cards worth $25 to $100 when paying full price.
Sales on Apple items including the watch, iPads, Macs, Apple TV, iPhones, and other devices will be readily available at most stores. All of these items are given special attention in our predictions.


Stores:


JCPenney will once again have the highest average discount for their sale at around 60%. Walmart, Best Buy, and Amazon will once again be towards the bottom, with average store discounts of around 30%. The overall average discount on Black Friday for every store will be around 39.55% (sample of the average discount from 2014 for 22 stores with a few minor adjustments, and divided together by 22)


Toys:


Average Discount: 35%
Wait until December for the best prices



Clothing:


Average Overall Discount: 49%


Firsts for 2015:


Ad Leak - October 12 (Harbor Freight)

Earliest Thanksgiving Day Start Time - 6 a.m. (Kmart)

First Black Friday Countdown Sale: November 1 (Amazon). This will run the entire month of November.

Most stores will start on Thanksgiving, and run their sales throughout the night into Friday, so there is not really an earliest Black Friday opening time.

****Do you plan to do any shopping during the Black Friday weekend this year? If so, do you plan to shop in stores, online or both?