Be skeptical of Rasmussen's recent poll result
The most recent NC Senate poll by Rasmussen has Tillis leading Hagan, 45 percent to 40 percent. I have significant doubts about the validity of this poll, and you should too.Posted — Updated
First, Rasmussen has been one of the more inaccurate pollsters for the last two general election cycles. As Nate Silver found in 2010, Rasmussen was uniquely bad:
There are several reasons why Rasmussen has been more inaccurate than almost any other pollster. The two most obvious ones are that they do not call cellphones since they are a “robo-poll" – one with automated dialing and pre-recorded scripts – and that they have been known to weight their data by respondents’ partisanship. The first explanation isn’t sufficient on its own, though, since Public Policy Polling is also a robo-poll that doesn’t reach cellphones but is more accurate. Weighing the results by respondents’ party ID is probably the more important factor.
Another reason I think this poll is questionable is because it has other odd results.
It is entirely possible that Rasmussen is picking up on an emerging trend where Tillis’ support is truly increasing. Given their track record is poor and other results from that survey defy common sense, skepticism is clearly warranted.
Copyright 2023 by Capitol Broadcasting Company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.