2025 Atlantic hurricane season: WRAL Severe Weather team predicts 'near-average' number of tropical storms
SON'S SMILE.
>> HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS IN
LESS THAN 2 WEEKS IN THE 2025
WRAL HURRICANE FORECAST IS
OFFICIALLY HERE. TAKE A LIVE
LOOK AT THE TROPICS RIGHT NOW.
YOU SEE NOTHING YET. HOWEVER,
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ALREADY RELEASING TROPICAL
UPDATES EVERY DAY. WELL, AND
YOU REMEMBER JUST HOW ACTIVE
LAST HURRICANE SEASON WAS HERE
IN NORTH CAROLINA WITH A LEAN
LEAVING A LASTING IMPACT ON
THE STATE.
>> OUR WRAL METEOROLOGIST SPENT
WEEKS ANALYZING DATA TO
FORECAST WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
THIS YEAR TO HELP YOUR FAMILY
PREPARE. IT'S A HURRICANE
FORECAST. YOU'LL SEE ONLY ON
WRAL.
>> THE 2024 TROPICAL SEASON
DEVASTATED PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. HELENE WAS SO
DESTRUCTIVE. THAT NAME WILL
NEVER BE USED AGAIN. SO WHAT DO
WE EXPECT THIS YEAR? WRAL
METEOROLOGISTS ARE FORECASTING
A NEAR NORMAL TROPICAL SEASON
WITH 13 TO 15 NAMED STORMS.
6 TO 8 COULD BECOME HURRICANES
AND 2 TO 3 COULD BECOME MAJOR
HURRICANES. CAMPBELL STARTS
US OFF WITH ONE OF THE FACTORS
WE CONSIDER. WE LOOK AT SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS
REGION TO HELP DETERMINE THE
LONG-TERM TROPICAL FORECAST A
LA NINA OR COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
>> USUALLY ENDS UP MEANING MORE
STORMS AN EL NINO OR WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
USUALLY MEANS FEWER STORMS.
THIS YEAR. WE EXPECTING NEUTRAL
SEASON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.
>> THAT WOULD PUT US TO ABOUT
THE LETTER N IN AMES. SO WE
DO DEEPER INTO NORTH CAROLINA
STATS. AND SINCE THE YEAR
TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS MADE
LANDFALL DURING A NEUTRAL
SEASON, 43% OF THE YEARS
THERE'S ONLY BEEN ONE YEAR WITH
THESE CONDITIONS THAT NORTH
CAROLINA DIDN'T HAVE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM
IMPACT US. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
ODDS TO STEER CLEAR ARE LOW IN
OUR STATE THIS YEAR. CHRIS
MICHAELS IS HERE WITH A CLOSER
LOOK AT HOW THINGS ARE SHAPING
UP RIGHT NOW AT THE COAST.
ANOTHER PIECE TO THE
FORECASTING PUZZLE IS SEA
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WARMER
OCEAN TEMPERATURES PROVIDE MORE
FUEL FOR STORMS TO FORM.
>> LAST SEASON, ATLANTIC
TEMPERATURES, THEY REACHED
HISTORIC HIGHS WHILE THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW,
IT'S NOT AS WARM AS LAST YEAR
AND THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION
ACTUALLY HAS POCKETS OF BELOW
NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
SEA SURFACE TEMPS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THEY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
SO WE MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE SOME
HOMEGROWN SYSTEMS TO WATCH THIS
YEAR. STORMS CLOSE TO HOME
OFTEN SPAWN TORNADOES.
ELIZABETH, THERE'S BEEN AN
ALARMING TREND IN TROPICAL
TWISTERS.
>> ANOTHER TREND WE DISCOVERED
IS HIGHER FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL
TORNADOES IN THE LAST 25 YEARS.
THERE'S A CLEAR UPWARD TREND
FOR HURRICANE SPAWNING
TORNADOES. SO IT'S IMPORTANT TO
PREPARE FOR BOTH OF THOSE AHEAD
OF THE 2025 SEASON LAST YEAR.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS SPAWNED 31
TORNADOES ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. 10 TORNADOES WERE
CONFIRMED. A TROPICAL STORM
DEBBY, 7 OF THOSE RIGHT HERE IN
OUR VIEWING AREA. HELENE
SPAWNED TORNADOES ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. TROPICAL TORNADOES
ARE ALSO NOTICEABLY STRONGER
AND JUST THE LAST 5 YEARS WE'VE
SEEN 3 EF 3 TORNADOES STRIKE
DURING HURRICANES.
>> AND THERE IS A REASON WHY
THE HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
STARTING IN THE MIDDLE PART
OF MAY. I LAST 10 YEARS, 7 OF
THOSE YEARS, THE SEASON STARTED
EARLY. ONE YEAR. WE ACTUALLY
HAD A STORM IN JANUARY ANOTHER
YEAR, APRIL. NOW, AS OF RIGHT
NOW, THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT
WE'RE SEEING ANYTHING TROPICAL
DEVELOP. BUT I LOOK TO THE
EUROPEAN MODEL AND AT THE END
OF THE MONTH SAID THERE IS
SOMETHING LOOMING OFFSHORE.
WE'LL SEE IF THAT TREND
CONTINUE ALL READY. AND MIKE,
WE ARE CERTAINLY HOPING FOR
A QUIET SEASON AFTER WHAT NORTH
CAROLINA HAD TO ENDURE LAST
YEAR.
>> IT'S A SYSTEM HAS EYES ON AS
WE HAVE THE LARGEST TEAM OF
METEOROLOGIST TO KEEP YOU
COVERED. YOU CAN ALWAYS CHECK
OUR DAILY UPDATED TROPICAL