NC superintendent race remains narrow as Election Day approaches, WRAL News Poll finds

The race to oversee North Carolina’s public schools remains tight with just a week to go before Election Day, according to new WRAL News poll results. And a large chunk of voters remain undecided in a race that has garnered national attention.

Forty-two percent of likely voters said they supported Republican Michele Morrow, while 41% said they planned to vote for Democrat Mo Green. About 17% of likely voters were undecided.

The poll of 853 likely voters, conducted by independent pollster SurveyUSA between Oct. 23 through Oct. 26, reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. A credibility interval is similar to a margin of error but takes into account more factors and is considered by some pollsters to be a more accurate measurement of statistical certainty.

The candidates have traded paint over the past seven months. Green led Morrow 40% to 38% in a September poll. And Morrow led Green 41% to 40% in a March poll. Each result was within the credibility interval.

The superintendent race doesn’t typically draw much scrutiny or attention to most voters; they’re usually focused on presidential and gubernatorial races. So it’s not terribly surprising that the percentage of undecided voters hasn’t moved much, said Steven Greene, a political science professor at North Carolina State University. The results reflect the state’s closely divided partisan electorate.

But this race has drawn unusual amounts of attention nationally because of social media posts by Morrow before she began running for political office in 2022.

Morrow, a former nurse who homeschooled her five children in North Carolina, called for the execution of numerous politicians and philanthropists, including calling for former President Barack Obama to die by firing squad on pay-per-view so that the government could make money off of it. She also called for using the military to keep former President Donald Trump in office in 2021, called public schools “indoctrination” and “socialism” centers, and has shared conspiracy theories about Covid-19 and mass shootings. Many of the posts have been deleted.

Morrow has drawn intense criticism from political opponents who say her rhetoric and lack of education experience make her unfit to run the state’s public schools.

Obama took the unusual step of weighing in on the race, making reference to Morrow’s posts without naming her. “We can't have somebody saying just crazy stuff running your school system, purchasing textbooks, allocating resources for our kids,” Obama Friday said during a speech in Charlotte, where he was campaigning for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

Morrow has defended her posts or said many of the statements were made in jest and that she’s focused on reforming education now.

She has criticized Green, a former executive director of the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation, for giving out grants to nonprofit organizations that have supported reducing or eliminating school resource officers. Green, who is also a former Guilford County Schools superintendent and former system administrator in Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools, says he supports school resource officers.

The national attention the race has drawn still pales in comparison to the attention the presidential and gubernatorial races have gotten, said David McLennan, political science professor at Meredith College.

The race is prominent because of the candidates he said, but “a lot of people just aren't paying attention,” McLennan said.

Green has released television ads against Morrow, attempting to use her social media comments against her. Morrow hasn’t released any television ads. But according to the WRAL News poll, Green’s ads don’t seem to be changing favorability for either candidate.

“We've seen over the course of several decades, political ads have really lost a lot of impact,” McLennan said. “Just in general, people are paying less attention to them. They're doing their own research.”

WRAL News asked voters if Morrow’s preference not to accept federal education funding would change their preference for her in the race.

• About 27% said it would make them less supportive of her, 17% said it would make them more supportive of her, and 10% said it would make them less likely to vote at all.
• A plurality of voters — 38% — said it would have no effect on their vote, and 8% said it would change their vote. The poll doesn’t ask if their vote would change for or against Morrow.

WRAL News also asked if Morrow’s comments on keeping Trump in office and calling schools “indoctrination” centers would change their vote.

• About 23% said it would make them less supportive of her, 20% said it would make them more supportive of her, and 7% said it would make them less likely to vote at all.
• A plurality of voters — 41% — said it would have no effect on their vote, and 8% said it would change their vote. The poll doesn’t ask if their vote would change for or against Morrow.

Other findings:

• Morrow leads among 18 to 34 year-olds, men and white voters. Green leads among 35 to 49-year-olds, women and Black, Hispanic and Asian voters.
• About 84% of Democrats said they planned to vote for Green, and Green leads among moderate and liberal voters, with 44% of moderates and 74% of liberals saying they’d vote for him.
• About 87% of Republicans said they’d vote for Morrow, and Morrow leads among conservative voters, with 71% saying they planned to vote for her.