North Carolinians are worried about political violence, extremism and a stolen election, new poll shows

North Carolina voters are feeling pessimistic heading into the 2024 election, and prospects of bipartisanship appear to be dimming further, a new poll from Elon University shows.

Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are each viewed mostly negatively. And while voters say both the Republican Party and Democratic Party in general are becoming more extreme, most voters also say they wouldn't be willing to compromise with the other side for middle-ground solutions.

Many voters are further worried about efforts to manipulate the results of the election. And a large majority fear America will see politically motivated violence after the election.

Jason Husser, the director of the Elon Poll, said in an interview Tuesday that many of these same concerns were on display in 2020, although they're more pronounced this year. But otherwise, he said, it's largely a more modern phenomenon — particularly the concerns about political violence and extremism.

"If we went back to 2012, 2004, we would find much more tempered results," he said.

Fewer than half (48%) of registered North Carolina voters believe that the results of this year's election will be accurately counted nationwide, according to the poll, which was released Tuesday. And more than 70% said they're concerned that violence will break out in the immediate aftermath of the election, or around the inauguration in January 2025 — as it did in January 2021 when supporters of then-President Donald Trump stormed the Capitol in an attempt to force Congress to falsely declare Trump the winner of the 2020 election.

Husser said the detailed results of the poll show some groups have different concerns: "Everybody’s worried about violence, but Democrats are more worried," he said. "And while not everyone is worried about election counts, Republicans are extra worried."

While 71% of all voters were worried about violence around the inauguration, that included 75% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans.

And while just 48% said they’d trust national election results, the numbers showed 74% of Democrats are willing to trust the outcome of the election, compared with 24% of Republicans are willing to do the same.

Harris v. Trump, Robinson v. Stein

The Elon poll didn’t track likely votes in major upcoming races, but it did ask voters about favorability. The poll found that 50% of voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 50% also have an unfavorable view of Harris.

"In some ways this is, once again, an election about who is least unpopular," he said.

The race for governor, to replace the term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, appears more clear: 50% of voters had an unfavorable view of Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, compared with 29% who had an unfavorable view of Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein.

Black voters were strongly behind both Harris and Stein. And while white voters strongly favor Trump over Harris, the poll showed Stein with a narrow lead over Robinson among white voters. Robinson has the potential to become the state's first Black governor if elected.

The poll found in a separate question that nearly three times as many Republicans as Democrats plan to be "split-ticket" voters this fall, voting for candidates of different parties for president and governor. The poll found 6% of Democrats planning to split their ticket, and 16% of Republicans planning to do the same.

"It’s not that Stein is all that popular," Husser said. "In some ways, his numbers are worse than Cooper’s. It’s just that Robinson’s numbers are that bad."

Husser said that can be tied to two factors: Robinson's long history of comments taking aim at Jews, LGBTQ people, women and others — which Husser said could turn many more moderate Republicans into Stein voters — as well as Robinson's views on abortion, which Stein has been hammering in near-constant ads.

Robinson has formerly said abortion should be outlawed, and he has opposed exceptions in the past. Since beginning his campaign for governor Robinson has more recently said he would support a ban on abortions after six weeks, with some exceptions. The state currently bans abortions at 12 weeks, with some exceptions. Stein says he would support bringing back the standard that existed under Roe v. Wade, which banned abortions after a fetus could survive if born early — typically around 24 to 26 weeks. He has said a Robinson governorship would give Republicans more leeway to enact stricter laws on abortion, birth control and such issues.

Tuesday's Elon poll shows only 16% of voters — and, perhaps surprisingly, only 28% of Republicans — want to see the state's 12-week abortion cutoff become even stricter in the future.

About one in four said the new abortion law, passed by GOP lawmakers last year, is fine as-is. But the plurality, 44%, said North Carolina needs to loosen its restrictions on abortion.

In recent weeks Robinson has attempted softening his image on abortion, saying in an ad that “I have not changed my view about abortion, but I've changed my approach to it. Because I really believe that if I'm a person who is seen as an individual who's standing on stage pointing down at a young woman saying, ‘You can't have an abortion,’ that is not the right approach.”

Husser said Robinson’s need to put out ads like that is taking away from his ability to go on offense, hitting Stein on issues such as immigration or the economy that voters tend to side with Republicans on more than Democrats. The poll found 78% of voters say inflation has negatively affected their families since President Joe Biden took office, and 68% blame Biden for it.