New polling shows U.S. voters pessimistic about democracy, split on Trump/Biden rematch

New national polling by Survey USA shows voters across the country are deeply pessimistic about our current political system and the future of peaceful transfers of power.

Survey USA asked more than 2,700 registered voters across the country this week about their expectations for the 2024 election. The results were eye-opening, to say the least. Most say American democracy is in trouble, and many expect violence in the future.

Voters clearly haven’t forgotten about the attempted insurrection of Jan. 6th — and nearly half think we’ll see something like it again next year.

Nationwide, 46 percent of respondents think serious violence is very likely or somewhat likely after the 2024 election. And that isn’t just a partisan concern: 53 percent of Democrats think so, as well as 45 percent of Independents and 42 percent of Republicans.

A substantial number think the violence could turn into a civil war. Twenty seven percent – that’s one in four registered voters – said civil war is very or somewhat likely after the next presidential election. And again, those concerns carried across the political spectrum, with 29 percent of Republicans and 26 percent of Democrats and Independents.

The pollsters also asked registered voters if they would be likely to fight in a civil war. Twenty six percent - one in four voters - said yes. That number was highest among very conservative and urban voters.

Meredith College political science professor David McLennan says those numbers are not something you'd expect to see in the U.S.

"We're also seeing people, whether it be politicians, or people in certain media outlets really start talking about violence," McLennan said "And, you know, even some of the people on the right have consistently used civil war to talk about what needs to happen. So I think what it is, is a reflection of the culture."

Even those who don’t expect violence say our democracy is shaky. Eighty four percent of registered voters said American democracy is in serious or very serious trouble. That includes 9 out of 10 of Republicans and independents, and three quarters of all Democrats.

McLennan says voters who think democracy is in trouble are also likely to doubt institutions like the election process.

"It looks bad for 2024, in terms of whatever side wins the presidency or whatever race you're looking at," McLennan said. "If that's not your candidate, you're going to doubt the outcome."

And the outcome looks likely to be very close.

Presidential polling

We’re still a long way out from the next election, and there are a lot of moving parts that could change the equation, most notably former President Donald Trump’s criminal trials. But if it were held today, a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden would be a wash.

Survey USA asked more than 2,700 registered voters across the county – if the 2024 presidential election were held today, and Trump and Biden were the candidates for their respective parties, how would you vote?

Forty three percent said they’d vote for President Biden, and 43 percent said they’d vote for former President Trump. Eleven percent were undecided, and 3 percent said a third-party candidate.

It looks increasingly likely that those will be the choices next fall.

SurveyUSA asked more than a thousand likely Republican primary voters who they’d choose. A whopping 65 percent said Trump.

The closest second in the GOP field was Florida governor Ron DeSantis at 9 percent, with businessman VivekRamaswamy just behind him at 8 percent. The other candidates were all at or below 5 percent support.

McLennan said those findings echo poll numbers he's found here in North Carolina.

"The debates that the Republicans have been having and the campaigning that the candidates are doing really aren't having any impact," McLennan said of the GOP field. "No one has gotten any traction."

On the other side, pollsters asked likely Democratic primary voters if they were satisfied with President Joe Biden as the candidate. Seventy six percent said yes.

However, that support comes with some concern. 60 percent of likely Democratic voters said they’re concerned about Biden’s age. And 69 percent said they’d like to see Biden run for vice-president instead with a younger candidate at the top of the ticket. When they were asked who that younger candidate should be, Democratic voters overwhelmingly chose current Vice President Kamala Harris. California governor Gavin Newsom was a distant second choice.

"I think there's just a lot of ambivalence. And that's why you see such a high number of even Democrats who would support Biden against Trump, but would really rather have somebody else," McLennan said. "I think most of the country's probably settled into the idea that we're going to have a rematch, even though, as the poll indicates, it's not something people really want."