Experts explain why the 'Red Wave' never happened, how polls were wrong

CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO COULD

DETERMINE WHICH PARTY CONTROLS

THE CHAMBER. NOW COMING INTO

TUESDAY'S ELECTION, POLLS

AROUND THE COUNTRY SEEMED TO

SIGNAL THAT REPUBLICANS COULD

TAKE DOZENS OF SEATS IN THE

U.S. HOUSE AND THE SENATE.

>> IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE CALLED

A SO-CALLED RED WAVE. AND BY

THE NEXT MORNING, IT WAS CLEAR

THAT ONCE AGAIN, THE POLLS ARE

WRONG.

>> WRAL CAPITOL BUREAU CHIEF

LAURA LESLIE TALKED TO POLLING

EXPERTS FROM BOTH PARTIES TO

FIND OUT WHAT HAPPENED.

THOM JENSEN IS LEAD POLLSTER

WITH PUBLIC POLICY POLLING,

A DEMOCRAT, A LINE FROM LOCATED

IN RALEIGH.

>> JENSEN SAID HIS AND OTHER

PROFESSIONAL POLLSTERS RESULTS

WERE ACTUALLY GOOD. THIS

ELECTION. HE SAID THE PROBLEM

WAS CAUSED BY CHEAP POLLSTERS

WHO AREN'T AS SKILLED OR HAS

THAT THE CULL REPUBLICAN

POLLSTERS MADE A REAL EFFORT

TO INFLUENCE THE POLLING

AVERAGES BY RELEASING LOTS AND

LOTS OF POLLS THAT SHOWED AN

OVERLY ROSY PICTURE FOR

REPUBLICANS.

>> AND THAT REALLY ENDED UP

BEING THE MAJORITY OF POLES

THAT WERE OUT IN PUBLIC IN THE

CLOSING STRETCH OF THE

CAMPAIGN. NATHAN BABCOCK IS A

REPUBLICAN POLITICAL CONSULTANT

WHO USES PULLING FOR A LIVING.

HE SAID HIS PROFESSIONAL

POLLSTER GOT GOOD RESULTS, TOO.

HE AGREED WITH JANSEN IN THE

LAST WEEK. YOU HAD ALL THESE

KIND OF FLY BY NIGHT.

>> OPERATIONS COME OUT AND

RELEASE THEIR THEIR POLLING

RESULTS AND THAT KIND OF CHANGE

THE NARRATIVE THAT REPUBLICANS

ARE GOING TO HAVE WAVES

NATIONALLY.

>> JENSEN SAID WAITING COULD

ALSO HAVE BEEN A PROBLEM.

PEOPLE WHO ANSWER POLLS DON'T

MATCH UP NEATLY WITH THE PEOPLE

WHO WILL TURN NOW TO VOTE.

POLLSTERS HAVE TO ANALYZE

TRENDS AND WAIT THERE. RESULTS

TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE.

WOMEN WERE ANSWER POLLS MORE

THAN MEN. OLDER PEOPLE ANSWER

POLLS MORE THAN YOUNGER PEOPLE.

WHITE PEOPLE, 10 DANCER POLLS

MORE THAN PEOPLE OF COLOR.

THOSE SORTS OF THINGS AND A

BIG PART OF WHAT DETERMINES

WHAT POLLS ARE ACCURATE AND

WHAT POLLS AREN'T IS HOW WELL

THOSE THINGS ARE ADJUSTED FOR

BABCOCK. THINK SOME POLLSTERS

MAY HAVE OVERCOMPENSATED FOR

2016 2020 AND THOSE ELECTIONS

POLL NUMBERS SKEWED TOWARD THE

DEMOCRATS BECAUSE MANY TRUMP

VOTERS SIMPLY DIDN'T ANSWER

POLLS. SO EVEN IF YOU GET THE

RIGHT NUMBER OF REPUBLICANS.

>> THE RIGHT NUMBER OF

DEMOCRATS, THE RIGHT NUMBER

OF INDEPENDENTS. HE STILL MIGHT

HAVE BEEN MISSING THAT HIDDEN

TRUMP VOTE. AND SO I THINK A

LOT OF POLLSTERS TRIED TO

CORRECT FOR THAT THIS TIME.

LAURA LESLIE, WRAL, NEWS,

RALEIGH.

>> IN CASE YOU'RE WONDERING,

WRAL'S EARLY OCTOBER POLL OF

THE SENATE RACE HAVE REPUBLICAN

TED BUDD, A LEADING DEMOCRAT,

CHERI BEASLEY, BY ONE POINT

WITH 13% UNDECIDED AT THE TIME,

UNOFFICIAL RESULTS SHOW THAT.

BUT ONE BY 3.6% WELL WITHIN

THE MARGIN OF ERROR. THAT POLL

WAS CONDUCTED BY PROFESSIONAL