Vaccine mandates will boost NC economic recovery, UNC-Chapel Hill professor says

Christian Lundblad, the Richard Levin Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Kenan-Flagler Business School at UNC-Chapel Hill, says the state's economic recovery is uneven because many people don't want to work in situations where they're exposed to coronavirus. Vaccine mandates in businesses will help alleviate those fears and draw more people back into the workforce, he says.
Posted 9/16/2021, 12:47:36 AM

THE HOLIDAY CELEBRATION MAKING

>>> THE LATEST SURGE IN COVID

KISSES IS LIKELY SLOWING DOWN.

ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE REST OF

2021.

UNC CHARLOTTE ECONOMIST JOHN

RELEASED HIS ORDERLY ECONOMIC

FORECAST FOR THE STATE TODAY.

SOME OTHER BIG TAKEAWAYS,

UNEMPLOYMENT. AS WE'VE BEEN

REPORTING, AND AS YOU'VE

PROBABLY NOTICED, RESTAURANT,

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY JOBS ARE

PLENTIFUL, BUT HARD TO FILL.

THE AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE

LARGEST EMPLOYMENT INCREASES

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR

OUR GOVERNMENT, INFORMATION AND

CONSTRUCTION.

PROFESSOR CHRISTIAN LUNDBLAD IS

WITH THE KENAN FLAGLER BUSINESS

SCHOOL AT UNC CHAPEL HILL.

PLENTY TO DISCUSS FROM THIS

REPORT.

I WANT TO START WITH THE

IMPLEMENT SITUATION.

FEDERAL BENEFITS RECENTLY

ENDED, EMPLOYERS ARE LOOKING TO

FILL THE JOBS, JUST LIKE WE

HEARD ABOUT IN CHAPEL HILL AND

AT THE WAKE COUNTY SCHOOL

SYSTEM.

WILL THE ENDING OF THE BENEFITS

PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FOR

EMPLOYERS?

>> YES, BUT THEY'LL BE

REASONABLY MODEST.

THAT IS ONE OF A MULTITUDE OF

THINGS THAT ARE IMPACTING THE

SUPPLY OF LABOR.

SO THAT'S CLEARLY GOING TO HAVE

SOME ROLE.

BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY,

THAT'S NOT THE DOMINANT FORCE.

THE DOMINANT FORCES

DISPROPORTIONATELY ABOUT THE

STATE OF THE VIRUS AND THE

WILLINGNESS OF LABORERS TO GO

BACK IN AND ENGAGE IN IN PERSON

ACTIVITY.

AND THAT IS, THAT'S ACTUALLY

SLIGHTLY MOVING IN THE WRONG

DIRECTION AS SOME DISCUSSED IN

THE REPORT. THE DELTA SURGE IS

BEING ASSOCIATED WITH

BACKTRACKING, FROM THAT

PERSPECTIVE.

>> ABOUT THIS REPORT,

GOVERNMENT INFORMATION AND

CONSTRUCTION ARE THE SECTORS

EXPECTED TO ADD THE MOST JOBS.

WHY IS THAT?

>> THE GOVERNMENT DOESN'T TAKE

THE SAME CONSTRAINTS AS THE

REST OF US IN THE PRIVATE

SECTOR.

INDEED, SOME OF THE STEPS ALSO

ARE NOT THOROUGHLY INVOLVING

THE SAME LEVEL OF IN PERSON

ACTIVITY.

AND CONSTRUCTION IS THERE

SIMPLY BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME

THINGS TO DO.

THERE OBVIOUSLY IS GOING TO BE

VERY KENT REPURPOSE SING OF

WHAT CONSTRUCTION AND OFFICE

SPACES ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE,

GOING FORWARD.

BUT THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES AND

I EXPECT TO SEE SOME GROWTH IN

THE SPACES.

>> WHAT DOES RECOVERY LOOK LIKE

FOR HOSPITALITY AND RETAIL?

>> THIS IS THE MOST

PROBLEMATIC, CLEARLY.

THE DISPROPORTIONATE IMPACT

WE'VE OBSERVED, IN THE HEAT OF

2020 AND THE SLOW RECOVERY

SINCE, HAS REALLY HIT THE

SECTORS INCREDIBLY HARD. THAT,

ALSO, IS DISPROPORTIONATE IN

TERMS OF WOMEN AND DIFFERENT

ETHNIC GROUPS, AND SUCH.

IT HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY

DIFFICULT. THE CHALLENGE, GOING

FORWARD, WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE

DIFFICULT TO PUT HUMPTY DUMPTY

BACK TOGETHER AGAIN, FRANKLY.

SO SPACES, MANY OF THEM

DISAPPEARED AND THEY AREN'T

GOING TO COME BACK IN THE SAME

WAY.

AND, IF ANYTHING, DELTA HAS PUT

US BACK A BIT FURTHER, BECAUSE

THAT HAS ADDED AN EXTRA

HEADWIND, AS IT WERE, TO THE

RECOVERY THAT I THINK WE WERE

HOPING TO BE A LITTLE BIT

FURTHER UNDERWAY IN THE SECTORS

ALREADY.

>> I HAVE ABOUT 30 SECONDS

LEFT, BUT I WANTED TO ASK YOU

THAT.

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE IMPACT ON

THE ECONOMY WILL BE IF WE

CONTINUE THESE VACCINE MANDATES?

>> I THINK ULTIMATELY THAT'S

HELPFUL, FRANKLY.

ULTIMATELY, THE END OF THE DAY,

PEOPLE WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE

COMING IN AND ENGAGING IN

NONESSENTIAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

AND WORKERS WILL BE MORE

COMFORTABLE WORKING IN SUCH

ENVIRONMENTS IF WE CAN HAVE

GREATER DEGREES OF VACCINE

PENETRATION AND MINIMIZE THE

IMPACT OF THE VIRUS. FOR ALL OF

THIS STARTED IN THE FIRST

PLACE.

IT WAS A HEALTH EMERGENCY AND

WE NEED A HEALTH RECOVERY IN

ORDER FOR US TO HAVE A

SUCCESSFUL ECONOMIC RECOVERY.

>> SO MANY VARIABLES TO THIS

RECOVERY. PROFESSOR CHRISTIAN

LUNDBLAD WITH UNC CHAPEL HILL.