Duke doctor reacts to concerning climb in COVID-19 cases

>>> WELCOME BACK, MOST OF THE

UNITED STATES IS SEEING

CONCERNING CORONAVIRUS TRENDS

RIGHT NOW INCLUDING NORTH

CAROLINA.

FOR 13 DAYS STRAIGHT MORE THAN

1000 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN

HOSPITALIZED STATEWIDE AND ON

AVERAGE, MORE THAN 2000 NEW

CASES EVERY DAY, DOWN SLIGHTLY

FROM SUNDAY'S AVERAGE.

IT WAS THE HIGHEST POINT ON THE

CURVE THAT WE HAD SEEN SINCE

THE PANDEMIC BEGAN COULD DR.

CAMERON WOLF IS AN INFECTIOUS

DISEASE SPECIALIST AT DUKE

UNIVERSITY, JOINING US NOW.

THIS IS SO CONCERNING, THAT WE

SEE OUR HIGHEST AVERAGES, THIS

MANY MONTHS INTO THE PANDEMIC.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF OUR RECENT

SURGE?

>> WELCOME I THINK THERE IS A

DIFFERENT THINGS GOING ON,

SADLY.

IT'S NOT EASY TO ATTRIBUTE IT

TO ONE THING.

WE'VE NOT SEEN A SUBSTANTIAL

DRUM UP IN SCHOOL AGED CHILDREN

SO WHAT YOU SEE IS A LITTLE BIT

OF FATIGUE, FRANKLY, WITH THE

MITIGATION EFFORTS WE KNOW THAT

HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE SO FAR.

PERHAPS AS A WINTER ELEMENT

THAT IS WORTH US CONSIDERING AS

WE GO TO DR. DARKER AND COOLER

MONTHS.

MANY NORTHERN STATES IN THE

UNITED STATES ARE UP TO GAIN

MORE QUICKLY.

THERE IS NO ONE THING TO POINT

AT HERE.

THE CONCLUSION IS THIS ISN'T

GOING AWAY WE NEED TO KEEP UP

OUR EFFORTS.

>> WE'VE HEARD FROM THE TOP

DOCTORS, WARNING US THAT THE

WEEKS AND MONTHS AHEAD COULD BE

VERY DARK.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT

ASSESSMENT AND HOW SHOULD WE

PREPARE OURSELVES?>> IT SOUNDS

A BIT GLOOMY TO BE VERY DARK

BUT I THINK, I DON'T THINK IT

WILL GO AWAY.

I THINK IF WE HAVE TO START

PLANNING FOR PRETTY MAJOR

ACTIVITIES, LET'S THINK THANKS

EVENING CHRISTMAS.

THEY WOULD BE TWO ACTIVITIES

THAT WILL BE ON THE RADAR TO

START THINKING CAREFULLY ABOUT

LOOK, MAYBE THIS IS THE YEAR I

HAVE TO PLAN THOSE TWO

ACTIVITIES TO BE DIFFERENT AND

PERHAPS IT'S NOT THE 30 PERSON

FAMILY IN THE HOUSE WITH THE

GRANDPARENTS KIND OF

THANKSGIVINGS THIS YEAR.

I DO THINK WE HAVE TO BE PRETTY

CREATIVE AND NIMBLE ABOUT THE

WAY WE PLAN PIT I'M STILL

PRETTY OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL

HAVE A 2021 VACCINES SOLUTION.

I THINK THAT IS ON THE RISING

THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME

DELAYS GETTING READY,

SCIENTIFICALLY APPROPRIATE

DELAY.

SO I DON'T THINK IT'S ALL DOOM

AND GLOOM BUT I THINK WE JUST

HAVE TO BE INCREDIBLY CAREFUL

WHICH IS NOT GOING TO VANISH.

>> WE'VE BEEN RECENTLY HEARING

ABOUT A SCHOOL OF THOUGHT, THE

IDEA OF HERD IMMUNITY WHICH IS

ESSENTIALLY THAT YOU PROTECT

VULNERABLE POPULATIONS BUT YOU

ALLOW IT TO SPREAD,

CORONAVIRUS, AMONG YOUNGER,

HEALTHY PEOPLE.

MY QUESTION IS HOW CAN THAT

POSSIBLY WORK? IF IT SURGES

THROUGH THE GENERAL POPULATION,

HOW CAN YOU PROTECT FILTERABLE

GROUPS?

DO YOU THINK IT IS A SMART IDEA

OR CONCEPT?>> I MEAN, IT IS ONE

SCHOOL OF THOUGHT.

I THINK THAT THE SAD REALITY IS

EXACTLY WHAT YOU DESCRIBED,

EVEN WHEN WE TRY TO DO THINGS

MORE AGGRESSIVELY, WE'VE DONE A

PRETTY DISMAL JOB, TO BE QUITE

FRANK AT PROTECTING THE ELDERLY

AND PROTECTING THOSE AT RISK.

IF YOU STILL LOOK AT THE

MORTALITY FIGURES ACROSS THE

COUNTRY, THE OVERWHELMING

NUMBER OF FOLKS WHO PASSED AWAY

FROM THIS ARE FOLKS OVER THE

AGE OF 60 OR 70 AND, WHILE THE

THEORY IS PROBABLY TRUE THAT

MANY OF US UNDER THE AGE OF 50

WOULD BE FINE IF WE GO GET

COVID-19 , THERE IS NO EASY WAY

TO PROTECT ALL THOSE PEOPLE AT

RISK.

HERD IMMUNITY APPROACH WOULD

RESULT IN THOUSANDS MORE DEATHS

THAN WOULD BE REQUIRED.

I THINK WHEN YOU HAVE A

TIMELINE WITH THE VACCINE THAT

IS COMING THAT THAT JUST ASK

FOR HOSPITALS TO BE OVERWHELMED

AGAIN.

IT'S ONE THING TO SAY LET'S

JUST SORT OF TICKED AWAY ALL OF

THE ELDERLY FOLK AND SHIELD

THEM FROM THAT BUT HOW DO YOU

DO THAT?

THE NURSING HOMES NEED YOUNG

PEOPLE TO LOOK AFTER THEM WHO

WOULD GET THEM INFECTED IN THAT

THEORY.

PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN OR HIGH

RISK PATIENTS IN THE HOSPITAL

NEED YOUNG, HEALTHY INDIVIDUALS

TO LOOK AFTER THEM.

THERE IS NO SHIELD THAT THAT

MAKES SENSE.

SO IT BECOMES AN EASY SORT OF

ANSWER THAT PEOPLE CAN

THEORETICALLY TALK ABOUT BUT

THAT WOULD RE-ACT WITH AN

INCREDIBLY LARGE MORTALITY RATE

WHICH WOULD BE UNPALATABLE.

THE OTHER PART THAT IS CRUCIAL

IS TO KNOW WHAT HERD IMMUNITY

MEANS.

IT MEANS FOR THIS VERSE IS BEST

WE CAN CALCULATE ME TO GET UP

TO SOMEWHERE ABOVE 70% OF

PEOPLE INFECTED.

IS WORTH REMEMBERING WE'VE HAD

215,000 DEATHS AND THAT HAS GOT

US TO ABOUT 12% OF PEOPLE

INFECTED.

SO YOU DO THE CALCULATIONS AND

IT'S JUST AN IMPLAUSIBLE THEORY.

WE WANT AN ANSWER BUT THAT'S

LIKELY TO BE IT.

>> DR. WOLF, THANK YOU SO MUCH

FOR THAT VERY CLEAR EXPLANATION

ABOUT SOMETHING WE ARE HEARING

A LOT ABOUT BUT WE NEED THE

FACTS TO SUPPORT IT.