Analysis: Does Schumer deserve credit for wins?

WASHINGTON _ Still deep in a post-2016-election funk, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer stepped up to the microphones last summer and promised a "Better Deal" from Democrats for recalcitrant blue-collar voters who deserted the party in droves to vote for Donald Trump.

Schumer never mentioned the name of defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

But he made clear the Clinton emphasis on loyal Democratic constituencies would be replaced by a "sharper-edged economic message" that appeals to middle-class voters across the board.

Fast forward to right here, right now. Democratic electoral prospects have brightened considerably in the wake of unlikely wins for Sen. Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, and Conor Lamb in a southwest Pennsylvania congressional district that President Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points.

Many observers are predicting a blue tsunami this November that may sweep Democrats into control of the House and maybe even the Senate.

Of course, these and other recent Democratic victories hinged on a mix of factors. Among them are attractive Democratic candidates in sync with their voters' leanings, less-than-stellar Republican opponents and overall voter antipathy toward Trump and the perceived chaos he's unleashed in Washington.

But does Schumer deserve any credit? Does his focus on economic issues as the Senate's top Democrat count for anything in terms of lifting his party's fortunes?

The answer is maybe but not in ways he necessarily intended.

For one, Jones and Lamb get a lot of credit for crafting their messages to coincide with voters' conservative orientation on the issues, including guns and abortion. Lamb even said he wouldn't support divisive House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi if Democrats take back the House.

Also, Trump's low poll numbers came home to roost.

"The energy on the Democratic side is being generated by opposition to Trump," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "It's the most intense (anti-Republican sentiment) I've seen since Watergate."

But if success has a thousand fathers, then Schumer could plausibly lay claim to the DNA mix.

Clinton was the front-runner throughout 2016, courting the traditional Democratic loyalties of women, youth, minorities and gays with promises on pay equity, paid family and medical leave, free college tuition and a raise in the federal minimum wage.

After Clinton's loss, Schumer was careful not to criticize her. But the direction of his finger-pointing was unmistakable.

Democrats "failed to articulate a strong, bold economic program for the middle class and those working hard to get there," he wrote in an op-ed in The New York Times. "We also failed to communicate our values to show that we were on the side of working people, not the special interests. We will not repeat the same mistake."

The Brooklyn native, who entered Congress in 1981, has both courted Trump and jousted with him. Since Republicans approved a tax overhaul last year that is now being reflected in modest paycheck boosts, Schumer has portrayed the law as little more than a sop to CEOs and shareholders in the form of stock buybacks, with comparatively little for workers.

Schumer's message is "Don't abandon inclusivity and diversity, but look at the races you're running in," said Morgan Hook, a Democratic consultant with SKD Knickerbocker in Albany. "And if you're running in a Trump 20-plus district, you have to do more to get those voters engaged."

Other critics give Schumer less credit for use of the bully pulpit than for his ability to play the inside game on Capitol Hill.

"If you want to give credit to Schumer, it's that he has kept a diverse group of Democrats together in the Senate," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Poll. "He's gotten the votes he's needed from Democrats ranging from (left-leaning Sen. Kirsten) Gillibrand to (centrist West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe) Manchin."

Arguably, Schumer's "forays into national politics have not been without cost at home," said Harvey Schantz, a political scientist at SUNY Plattsburgh.

According to Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, Schumer's approval rating stood at 67 percent in December 2016 when Democratic senators picked him to be minority leader.

In Quinnipiac's Feb. 14 poll, it was 53 percent, the lowest it's been since 1999 when Schumer entered the Senate.