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Analysis of changing electorate shows a divided and partisan America that could grow even further apart

In the last 25 years, partisanship in America has become more closely tied to demographics, according to a new analysis of survey data since 1994 from the Pew Research Center.

Posted Updated

By
Jennifer Agiesta
, CNN Polling Director
CNN — In the last 25 years, partisanship in America has become more closely tied to demographics, according to a new analysis of survey data since 1994 from the Pew Research Center.

Should current trends continue, the country's shifting makeup over time points to an electorate that may continue to favor the Democratic Party in overall numbers, even as the Republican Party has made up some ground lost in the early days of Donald Trump's presidency.

Throughout 2018 and 2019, 33% of registered voters considered themselves Democrats, 29% Republicans and 34% saw themselves as independents. Republicans have gained three points since 2017, while Democratic affiliation has held steady.

When partisans are combined with independents who lean toward each party, about half of voters (49%) are either self-identified Democrats or Democratic-leaners, while slightly fewer, 44%, identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. Democrats have outweighed Republicans among the nation's registered voters, according to Pew's data, since 2004.

But a portrait of the demographic, geographic and religious breakdowns within each party reveals changes within America's two major parties that could drive them further apart.

In broad strokes, Republicans are trending older and failing to keep pace with Democrats among people of color and those with college degrees, both groups which are growing as a share of the American electorate.

The gender gap in partisan identity is among the largest it has been in the 25 years covered by the report, with 56% of women calling themselves Democrats or Democratic-leaners compared with just 42% of men.

Democrats have made steeper gains than Republicans among the fast-growing group of non-religious voters.

And as Democrats have solidified their advantage among urban voters, Republicans have built a solid base of support in rural communities, where a near-even partisan divide from the late 1990s through the Obama years has become a nearly 20-point GOP advantage.

Refining the parties' bases further, the groups that the Pew report identifies as the strongest for each side are nearly polar opposites: Democrats hold an 80-point advantage in partisan affiliation among black women, Republicans have a 32-point edge in affiliation among white non-college men. Republicans have a 61-point lead in identification among white evangelicals, while Democrats have a 43-point lead among the religiously unaffiliated. And Democrats have a 49-point advantage among urban Northeasterners, while Republicans have a 27-point lead among rural Southerners.

These divisions were on prominent display in the 2016 presidential election and are likely to dominate the story of the fall election this year as both Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden aim to turn out their most ardent supporters. Divides by race, education and gender have already been a focus for both campaigns.

Race

Over the last few decades, the American electorate and both of the two major parties have become less white. In surveys conducted in 1996, 85% of registered voters were whites who are not of Hispanic descent. In the 2018 and 2019 data, that figure stands at 69%. It has also dropped in both parties, but by a larger share among Democrats (from 76% to 59%) than among Republicans (from 94% to 81%).

Even as the racial makeup of the electorate has changed, overall partisan leanings among whites, blacks and Latinos have held roughly steady in the last few years. In the most recent data, Republicans outpace Democrats among whites 53% to 42%, while Democrats hold a massive advantage among blacks (83% Democratic vs. 10% Republican) and a smaller but still substantial edge among Latinos (63% to 29%). Asian Americans included in the survey data have become increasingly Democratic in recent years, though, and now 72% consider themselves Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents vs. just 17% who say they are Republicans or Republican-leaners. The survey data, however, can only reflect the views of English-speaking Asian Americans because the surveys were not administered in other Asian languages.

Education

The educational achievements of the nation's electorate have grown sharply since the 1990s. In Pew's 1996 surveys, only about a quarter of voters held at least a four-year college degree. Now, 36% hold at least a four-year college degree. At the same time, the share who have no college experience at all has dipped from 47% to 32%.

The change here is not limited to growing educational attainment, though. As the share of four-year college graduates has increased, that pool of voters has also become more Democratic, and those with a high school diploma or less have become more Republican.

Those with post-graduate experience are most likely to consider themselves Democrats, 61% say they are Democrats or Democratic-leaners while 33% say they are Republicans or Republican-leaners, a sharp change from 1994 when the two parties were near even among this group (47% Democrats vs. 45% Republicans). And among college graduates, what was a 15-point advantage for Republicans in 1994 has become a 13-point edge for Democrats now. Those who hold a high school diploma or less are more closely divided, but tilt Republican, 48% to 44%, a recent shift from a Democratic edge over much of the last 25 years.

That shift is particularly pronounced among whites who do not hold college degrees. In the current estimate, 62% of whites with a high school diploma or less formal education consider themselves Republicans, while 31% are Democrats or Democratic-leaners. This group was roughly evenly split between parties from 1994 through approximately the start of the Obama presidency.

Gender

Women are far more likely than men to identify as Democrats, according to the Pew report, with 56% of women saying they are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, while only 42% of men say the same.

That gap between men and women has held roughly steady since 2016, and remains among the widest the center has seen in the last 25 years of surveys.

The Pew Research Center analysis is based on annual compilations of national telephone surveys conducted between 1994 and 2019, including more than 360,000 interviews with registered voters. Annual estimates of partisanship were used to assess results from 1994 through 2017, and data from phone surveys conducted in 2018 and 2019 were combined to yield the current estimates.

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