Amendment 1 more of a worry for Tampa Bay governments than area businesses

If approved by voters, Amendment 1 would expand the homestead exemption and suck millions of dollars from local government coffers.

Hillsborough's county government, for instance, stands to lose up to $30 million. Tampa pegged its deficit at about $5 million. Pinellas estimated $22 million, St. Petersburg about $4.2 million.

That's real money, enough to force some governments to make tough choices about program cuts, freezing wages, or in a few cases, raising the millage rate to recapture the lost revenue.

Raising the millage rate would shift more of the burden to businesses and other land owners who don't get the homestead exemptions. Governments could also raise licensing and other fees to try to make up the difference. But if that's a real threat, it does not appear to be top of mind for many local business owners.

Many I spoke with needed a refresher on the ins and outs of Amendment 1. Others knew about it, but said it was low on their list of worries or challenges.

"For the most part, there hasn't been a really clear concern from the small business perspective that we've heard," said Josh Baumgartner, the Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce's senior vice president for strategy. "A few members wonder if the burden will get shifted to landlords who don't get the homestead exemption, but that's about it."

It's one of the reasons the Tampa Chamber hasn't taken an official position on how to vote on Amendment 1. (The St. Petersburg Area Chamber of Commerce has recommended its members oppose the amendment.)

The Clearwater Regional Chamber hasn't heard much from its members about Amendment 1 either, said Darryl Henderson, vice president of public policy and business development. There has been more chatter about Amendment 4, which would restore voting rights to many felons, and Amendment 6, which would create a bill of rights for crime victims, among other things, he said.

"There just hasn't been a big outcry about it," Henderson said. "That's part of the reason why we've taken more of an educate and inform approach on Amendment 1."

Real estate investor and property manager Jeff Wernick said he would expect local governments to consider raising property taxes or fees on commercial and other non-homesteaded properties, though he wasn't convinced they would go through with it.

"It makes sense that if they lose money on one side of the scale that they try to recoup it on another," said Wernick, owner of Tager Realty. "But for most of my clients, it's not that much of a concern."

If passed, the amendment would increase the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $75,000, but the additional $25,000 exemption would apply only to homes with an assessed value of $100,000 or more. The exemption would not apply to school taxes.

While it may not be a major worry for area businesses, it is for cities and counties.

"We've heard a lot more concern from our city and municipal partners than from our business members," Henderson said.

Same for Baumgartner at the Tampa chamber.

"They are the ones with the most to lose, the ones who will have to deal with it at first," he said. "So it makes sense that they are talking about it more than businesses."

In Hillsborough, it will be interesting to see whether the two sales tax increases on the ballot influence how residents vote on the Amendment 1 tax break.

The increases -- one to raise money for transportation, the other for schools -- would cost the average Hillsborough household about $180 a year. That's a little less than what most eligible homeowners would save if Amendment 1 passes.

Might Hillsborough homeowners vote for all three, viewing it as a financial wash or will they consider each issue separately? How will residents there approach the ballot compared to voters in counties without the proposed tax increases?

"That's a heyday for political analysts," Baumgartner said.

Contact Graham Brink at gbrink@tampabay.com. Follow @GrahamBrink.