7 competitive North Carolina political races you should watch

North Carolinians who care about the balance of power in Washington and Raleigh now have a clearer picture of the state’s most consequential races.

The midterm elections are expected to threaten the Democrats’ control of Congress and could give Republicans in North Carolina’s legislature enough seats to override vetoes by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. However, legal clouds have hovered over the state’s battlegrounds as state courts scrutinized newly-drawn voting districts.

In North Carolina, the state House and state Senate are required by law to redraw congressional and legislative voting districts every ten years. Republicans hold a majority in both chambers and last year drew maps that gave their party a sizable advantage. Voting rights groups sued those Republican leaders, prompting a legal review that delayed the primaries and resulted in maps more favorable to Democrats than the November maps the GOP approved.

Nonetheless, candidates are jockeying for positioning in primaries that could promote one wing of their party over another and prove consequential in Washington, D.C. Here are seven races to watch:

Former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory and U.S. Rep. Ted Budd Budd are the two leading candidates in the GOP U.S. Senate primary, according to polls commissioned by campaigns and conservative organizations. In 2012, McCrory was the first Republican elected governor since the early 1990s. Budd is backed by former President Donald Trump and Club for Growth Action, a Washington, D.C., political action committee that has vowed to spend $10 million to boost his campaign.

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Former Greensboro-area U.S. Rep. Mark Walker and military veteran Marjorie K. Eastman are also vying for their party's nomination. Walker had previously considered returning to the U.S. House, but the latest congressional map left him little chance of winning in a district near his hometown.

The winner of the GOP primary could signal which ideological lane the party is moving. A win for Budd could reflect Trump's continued influence in the state, while a McCrory victory could embolden candidates with more moderate views to run for elected office.

Whichever candidate wins would likely square off against presumptive Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Cheri Beasley.

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The district is a toss-up and has attracted several Republican candidates, including political newcomer Bo Hines, who’s also supported by Club for Growth Action. Former U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers and attorney Kelly Daughtry, the daughter of longtime legislator Leo Daughtry, are also running on the GOP side. State Sen. Wiley Nickel of Raleigh and former state Sen. Sam Searcy are the most well-known candidates on the Democratic side.

A Republican win in the 13th district would almost assure the GOP has majority representation in North Carolina's congressional delegation, while a Democratic win could make it less likely for the GOP to take back the House and stifle President Joe Biden's legislative agenda.

The Democratic primary features several candidates but could shape up as a battle between two former colleagues from opposite ideological sides of the same party. Democrats have faced scrutiny for their performance in rural areas. Whoever wins could lay out a path to victory for other Democrats in rural districts and serve as the face of northeastern North Carolina for years to come.

State Sen. Don Davis is one of only a few Democrats who has bucked his own party to vote with Republicans on abortion and state budget bills. Former state Sen. Erica Smith, meanwhile, is running a more progressive campaign.

Sandy Smith, a strong Trump ally with a sizable social media, is among the top Republicans competing. She has seven primary opponents—Republicans Will Aiken, Brad Murphy, Ernest Reeves, Brent Roberson, Sandy Roberson, Billy Strickland and Henry Williams II.

Eight Democrats filed their candidacy paperwork, including musician Clay Aiken of Wake County, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam and state Sen.Valerie Foushee, who represents Chatham and Orange counties.

The crowded Democratic primary field could result in a run-off election if no candidate captures at least 30% of the vote. An Aiken victory could demonstrate the power of celebrities in politics.

An Allam win would signal the district’s desire for a progressive candidate whose community has not traditionally not been represented. Allam was elected in 2020 as the state's first Muslim woman to serve in public office. A Foushee win would signal the strength of the Black community’s vote and value of experience in state-level politics.

In November, he announced he'd leave his home district and instead run for a safer seat near Charlotte to stifle the prospects of a possible run by GOP House Speaker Tim Moore. But in February, changes to the congressional map left Cawthorn with little choice but to run in his home district. The seat is likely safe for Republicans.

Cawthorn will have to fend off campaigns by local party official Michele Woodhouse and state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who’s more aligned with the party establishment. A Cawthorn loss could signal his constituents’ weariness with his bombastic style.

State Sen. Ralph Hise, who was heavily involved in North Carolina’s decennial redraw, and Sen. Deanna Ballard will square off in the state Senate’s new 47th district. The senators are friends, so insiders are interested to see how they campaign against each other.

Hise, who has served 12 years, is effectively the second-highest ranking member of the Senate and leads its redistricting committee. Ballard, who has served six years, leads key education committees and worked in former President George W. Bush’s White House. She was also director of public policy for Samaritan’s Purse, an international Christian charity based in North Carolina and headed by influential evangelist Franklin Graham.

As a safe Republican seat, the district isn’t expected to play a major role in the GOP’s effort to gain a supermajority or hold onto a simple majority. But the primary illustrates how the state’s redistricting process has created political casualties, and it could shed light on whether professional success translates to the campaign trail.

No Democrats are running.

Candidate filing closes, stage set for NC legislative primary battles

On election night, North Carolinians could look to northern Wake County for a sign of how things are going. The 35th House District seat is held by incumbent Democratic Rep. Terence Everitt, who won 50.7% of the vote in 2020.

Everitt’s district still leans Democratic, but not by much. He faces a rematch with Republican Fred Von Canon, who loaned his campaign committee $42,000 and had more cash on hand than Everitt at the end of 2021. An Everitt defeat could signal trouble for Democrats across the board.

Republican Brandon Panameno and Libertarian Joseph Serio are also running for the seat.